Fantasy Fan-Addicts

Rotowire.Com

2008-10-01T09:25:00.002-04:00

Week 6: SEC Start'em/Sit'em
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Inside look at fantasy college football in the Southeastern Conference. This article is focused on giving you the detailed look at players that are outside the obvious...

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CrucialSports.Com

2008-09-26T21:29:00.003-04:00

Start'em, Sit'em, Grab'em: Week 4 Running Backs

(http://www.crucialsports.com/)

As the bye-weeks, injuries, and poor performances take hold of the NFL starting runningbacks, let us take a peek at who I think are the not-so-obvious players to start, sit, or pick-up off the waiver wire.

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SportsGrumblings.Com

2008-09-25T10:49:00.007-04:00

Burning Up The Bases
(http://www.sportsgrumblings.com/)

Join me this week on SportsGrumblings.com as I finish out the year with my last Burning Up The Bases article. This week is focused on the future speedsters of the Major Leagues...

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CrucialSports.Com

2008-09-25T10:43:00.010-04:00

Tuesday Evening Quarterback
(http://www.crucialsports.com/)

Join the Crucial staff (Myself, Mark Haverty, and Paul Sporer) as we take a look at the week that was the NFL Week 3. Our podcast is focused on the studs, duds, and waiver wire fodder that can help you with your weekly roster considerations.

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CrucialSports.Com

2008-09-25T10:39:00.006-04:00

Start'em, Sit'em, Grab'em: Week 4 Quarterbacks
(http://www.crucialsports.com/)

As the bye-weeks, injuries, and poor performances take hold of the NFL starting quarterbacks, let us take a peek at who I think are the not-so-obvious players to start, sit, or pick-up off the waiver wire.

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SportsGrumblings.Com

2008-09-24T08:57:00.007-04:00

AL Grumblings
(www.sportsgrumblings.com)

Join me this week as I take a look at the playoff teams, where they stand, and who you should to "catch" or "release" on your fantasy keeper league rosters.

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Rotowire.Com

2008-09-24T08:54:00.004-04:00

Week 4: SEC Start'em/Sit'em

(www.rotowire.com)

Inside look at fantasy college football in the Southeastern Conference. This article is focused on giving you the detailed look at players that are outside the obvious...

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CrucialSports.Com

2008-09-12T08:45:00.010-04:00

Start'em, Sit'em, Grab'em: Week 2 Running Backs
(www.crucialsports.com)

CrucialSports’ in depth look at fantasy football to help you look for impact players off your bench, determine which starters will see a tough match-up, or locate a free agent that could help you fill in for a bye week or upgrade your roster depths. We will do the real work and let those other sites cover the obvious picks.

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CrucialSports.Com

2008-09-11T08:11:00.004-04:00

Start'em, Sit'em, Grab'em: Week 2 Quarterbacks
(www.crucialsports.com)

CrucialSports’ in depth look at fantasy football to help you look for impact players off your bench, determine which starters will see a tough match-up, or locate a free agent that could help you fill in for a bye week or upgrade your roster depths. We will do the real work and let those other sites cover the obvious picks.

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CrucialSports.Com

2008-09-10T16:03:00.013-04:00

Tuesday Evening Quarterback

(www.crucialsports.com)

Join the Crucial staff (Mark Haverty, Paul Sporer, and Kevin Burgoyne) as they venture into the world of podcasting and review the previous NFL weekend. The podcast is focused on Studs, Duds, and the Waiver Wire.

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RotoWire.Com

2008-09-10T15:50:00.013-04:00

Week 3: SEC Start'em/Sit'em
(www.rotowire.com)

Inside look at fantasy college football in the Southeastern Conference. This article is focused on giving you the detailed look at players that are outside the obvious...

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SportsGrumblings.Com

2008-09-10T14:59:00.023-04:00

Burning Up The Bases
(www.sportsgrumblings.com)

Join me this week on SportsGrumblings.com as I review five key outfielders that may be on your waiver wire who can help you navigate your leagues playoffs by giving you the hardest statistic to produce, stolen bases...

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Shockey's Stock Skyrockets!

2008-07-22T22:18:00.006-04:00

A man of few words? A team player? A calm, professional approach to his job?

NO! These are definitely not phrases to describe the walking ego that is Jeremy Shockey; however, I believe that he has the opportunity that he has desired since his arrival into the NFL, to be used offensively to compete with the best in the league (I.E Antonio Gates, Todd Heap, Dallas Clark).

There are many angles to take on this article.... and I being as big an ego-maniac as Shockey, will try to take each of them.

Perspective #1: What the hell were the Giants thinking when they refused to accept New Orleans' second and fifth round picks just days leading up to the 2008 NFL draft, instead demanding an unrealistic 1st and fourth for the services of Shockey? Now, they decide that they would rather walk into training camp with Kevin Boss as the starter and search through four other young candidates to fill the unbelievable blocking skill that Shockey provided them?

My Response: Stupid is as stupid does...with that, the ownership team should be pictured on a park bench with a box of chocolates!

Perspective #2: With an obvious feeling of separation-anxiety on the part of Shockey (which further proves he is a megolomaniac, thinking only of his own self-pity while his teammates struggle to provide him a Super Bowl ring that they won while he was tying one on in the stands). Now, Shockey has the opportunity to join a staff lead by the genius that is Sean Payton. Payton has fought tooth and nail against the ownership to get Shockey into training camp, so now it should be eye-opening for the newly acquired pro-bowl tight end to realize that he is not God's gift to football, buckle down and get it done, putting his mouth away and letting the statistics do the talking.

My Response: Someone needs to slip Antonio Gates' statistics when Drew Brees was in San Diego and simply write "Are you up to the task?"

Perspective #3: With players like Marques Colston, a recovering Deuce McCallister, the ultimate scat-back in Reggie Bush, and the potential talent of Robert Meechum, Devery Henderson, and the speedy David Patten, there are going to be times when they need to rely on Shockey's best ability, to block. This was Shockey's biggest grip with the N.Y. Giants organization, that he was utilized more as a blocker and not as a downfield threat.

My Response: Shockey needs to suck it up, realize that he is not Gates or Clark, speed-wise, and will be relied upon to block for McCallister, Bush, and Aaron Stecker as a first priority; however, he needs to take into consideration just how heavily that Brees relies on his tight end to be his last option. This means he needs to finish out his blocks completely, then break free and be there when his Pro Bowl Quarterback needs him. If he can do this, letting his team-play come through, then he should easily outdo any of his previous seasons' statistical totals.

All in all, this is a win for New Orleans' offense, Sean Payton's vision, and Shockey's career. Unfortunately, I do not see the Saints' defense being stout enough to keep the team in the game long enough to put enough wins on the board to be considered a true playoff hopeful.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it!

Kevin M. Burgoyne II, aka Statistocrat

statistocrat@gmail.com

MLB Sports Writer, http://www.sportsgrumblings.com/

SEC Football Analyst, http://www.rotowire.com/

Sports Editor, http://www.crucialsports.com/

MLB: Draft Day Diagnosis: Catchers

2008-01-19T15:15:00.001-05:00

Join Screaming Sports Staff Writer, Statistocrat, as he evaluates each position, offering you his “Musts”, “Trusts”, and “Busts”. The key to a successful draft is drafting as many musts at each position that you can, avoiding potential busts, and relying on depth through consistency, or “trusts”.

MUSTS

1. Victor Martinez (CLE): Easily the standout in this category. There is no reason to assume that he does not match his previous three years output, averaging 24 homeruns, 82 runs, and 105 runs batted in. Add in the emergence of Kelly Shoppach and the number of games he played at 1B last year, he should qualify as C/1B/CI.

2. Russell Martin (LAD): This is the best catcher in 5X5 rotisserie league because of his .280 batting average, 80-80 potential runs and runs batted in, and 20+ steal potential. Personally I believe that he will be the best catcher in ’08. He has clearly demonstrated consistency where Victor Martinez puts up his statistics in spurts.

3. Brian McCann (ATL): Although Joe Mauer is rated higher in most “experts” rankings, it is McCann that has the higher ceiling in 2008. Mauer is injury-prone and does not have as much protection in the line-up as McCann does. Consider McCann as a solid fantasy starter that you can grab in the mid-rounds of your draft. With Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira, and Jeff Francoeur in the line-up, McCann has a great chance to improve on his runs/runs batted in while resuming the power that he displayed in his debut season and the second half of 2007.

4. Joe Mauer (MIN): With 8 – 10 steals, a batting average that will hover around .300 and between 70-80 in runs and runs batted in, he is clearly among the tops in the league; however, with the Twins line-up in the middle of a huge transition, he will be limited in “consistency”. He is a guarantee to be drafted before McCann and some managers will value Mauer over Martin.

5. Jorge Posada (NYY): I do not see another 24-90-90 season out of Posada, but he has been the most consistent catcher in the league since 2000. Posada does have the benefit of a line-up that most never has the opportunity to play with in their career; therefore, he still holds solid fantasy value. He will go early and often in drafts once the “catcher run” begins…but hold strong, realizing that there are more quality catchers that are mid-tier (“trusts”) that can give you approximately the same production so that you can focus on more important positions like depth at the corners (1B/3B), solid outfielder depth, and excellent pitchers that are considered mid-tier, however, extremely productive in the long run.

BUSTS

1. Ramon Hernandez (BAL): Long gone are the productive days that Hernandez had in Oakland. With an insufferable line-up, and limited opportunity, Hernandez will be taken with the hopes of comparing to his previous statistics, prior to his arrival in Baltimore, but do not consider him unless you have focused on every other position and you are deciding between Ramon and players without little to any big league experience.

2. Paul Lo Duca (WAS): Here is another player that has lost his viability in the fantasy world due to a transition to a team that has little to no opportunity to produce offensive fantasy statistics. Lo Duca will produce between 50-60 runs/runs batted in and might even lose 10 points on his average as he will surely feel the pressure to produce runs to compensate for the lack of depth on the Nationals line-up.

3. Michael Barrett (SD): Michael did see a surge in production once traded to San Diego, partly due to the environment in the White Sox dugout. The problem is that he has moved to a pitchers park and San Diego has shown long droughts of offensive production for the past few seasons. Someone will think about the Michael Barrett of old and not the present-day Barrett… Do not be that fantasy manager.

4. Bengie Molina (SF): Bengie was amazing when he played in a potent Angel’s offense. When he signed with the Toronto Blue Jays, both the Blue Jays organization and many fantasy managers thought that production would follow. Now entering his second season as a Giant, he have to evaluate what he produced last year and call that the expectations. Look for less than 50 runs, no more than 75 runs batted in, and a handful of homeruns, say…”15”.

5. Ivan Rodriguez (DET): It looks to good to be true! Solid line-up, deep pitching, and no real depth at the catching position in Detroit. With all this, people will still expect more out of Pudge than he can offer at this point in his career. Like Gary Sheffield, he is on the decline, literally “adding insult to injury”. Rodriguez will have spurts that will make some fantasy managers happy, but do not look to Pudge other than a back-up, using him when he has one of his streaks.

TRUSTS

1. Kenji Johjima (SEA): You can consistently expect a .280 batting average, 50 runs, and 65 runs batted in from Kenji. He has increased his homerun total every year so expect a small spike in dingers this year, likely going from his career average of 16 to 20. With a player like Johjima, you can relax on draft day, realizing that you can grab him after two thirds of the draft has expired and everyone has overreached for some of the other mid-tier catchers, musts, and busts.

2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (TEX): Jarrod was part of the blockbuster “Mark Teixeira” trade between the Rangers and the Braves in ’07. To say that this player has a higher ceiling now that he is in a hitter’s park is an understatement. The additional opportunity to potentially play 1B adds even more value to a player that has the potential to produce 25-80-80 in his first full season.

3. Jason Varitek (BOS): Considered to be one of the best students of the game, Jason had a particularly forgettable season in 2007. (World Series Championships have little to do with the fantasy world). What can be said for Jason is his statistical consistency. You know what you get when you draft ‘Tek’; 50-60 runs, 18-20 homeruns, 65-70 runs batted in, and a .280 batting average. When you see value at other positions, go to them first, realizing that a consistent catcher like Jason will be available well into the 20th rounds of a fantasy baseball draft.

4. A.J. Pierzynski (CWS): You do not have to like the player to draft and start him in your line-up. He will ruffle feathers of opponents and teammates alike, but the one thing you can guarantee from A.J., 50-50 in runs/runs batted in, and a handful of homeruns (15-18). He is consistent enough at the plate to guarantee over .278 in batting average considering he is a career .284. Basically, Pierzynski will not hurt you in any fantasy category and will bring enough to the table to keep your team viable in almost any fantasy format.

5. Chris Snyder (ARI): For a player that only had 384 at bats in 2007, this catcher impressed me. I believe this is the best value at catcher if you are not ultimately concerned with huge statistics out of the catcher’s position. Snyder hit an impressive 13 homeruns, 40 runs batted in and 37 runs on a team were pitching, not offense, carried this team to the playoffs. Like Conor Jackson, Chris Young, Justin Upton, and Stephen Drew, Chris is looking to have a solid season in 2008. My prediction is that Snyder knocks in 20-22 homeruns, 50 runs, 65-70 runs batted in, and a batting average of .265 to .272. Is that a bold prediction, only time will tell.

MLB Hot Stove: Tampa Bay Devil Rays

2008-01-19T15:15:00.000-05:00

Will B.J. Upton be able to best his 2007 statistics?

Where Are They Coming From

The Devil Rays became a Major League team in 1998. Since then, the team has averaged a shade above 60 wins a season. The Rays are just one of four teams to never make it to the World Series (Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, and the Washington Nationals). The team has placed last in the American League East every year except for 2004 when they finished fourth in the division with 70 wins (3.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays). The 2007 season was no different, finishing the year at 66-76.

When you consider that in their nine years, they have had seven Top 10 picks, six of which were Top 3 picks. The team has drafted the likes of Josh Hamilton (TEX), Delmon Young (MIN), B.J. Upton (TB), Rocco Baldelli (TB), and 3B Evan Longoria. With these names, you would think that this team would be far better off than they are today. Both Hamilton and Young are no longer with the team.

The 2007 team had to endure injuries to 3B Akinori Iwamura, the oft-injured CF Rocco Baldelli, INF/OF B.J. Upton, Closer Al Reyes, and promising young SS Ben Zobrist, however, this was not the biggest reason for their poor showing but it may have been the difference between another last place finish and fifth (Baltimore had only 3 more wins).

There were some very bright spots on the 2007 roster that is worth investing some time with starting with B.J. Upton. Upton seems to have finally arrived, batting an impressive .300 batting average, 24 homeruns, 22 stolen bases, and an impressive 80-80 runs/runs batted in on a terrible offensive team. Both Scott Kazmir and Jamey Shields were able to win 13 and 12 games, respectively. These two young pitchers combined for 423 strikeouts with over 421 innings pitched. Although Shields only surrendered 36 walks, Kazmir continued to run up the walk totals, netting 89. Least we forget the young OF Delmon Young. Delmon’s rookie year was not as hot as his temper, but it was enough to garner looks from around the league when the season ended. Young batted .288 even though he managed 127 strikeouts and only 26 walks. It is easy to conceive a high percentage of his 38 doubles to transform into homeruns, adding to his 13 homeruns from 2007.

Carl Crawford was still extremely productive with only Carlos Pena being the only productive player on the roster. Carl swiped an impressive 50 stolen bases, continued to improve his plate presence, batting .315, and produced 37 doubles, 9 triples, and 11 homeruns. The only downfall was his strikeout total which rose from his average of mid-eighties to a career-high 112 strikeouts.

Players Added

With outfielders Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Rocco Baldelli, and Johnny Gomes, the team made an interesting trade with the Minnesota Twins. The Devil Rays traded away OF Delmon Young and INF Brandon Harris in exchange for SP Matt Garza and SS Jason Bartlett. I think that this was a great move by the Devil Rays. When you can add a young, promising arm to your rotation, you must jump on it and quickly.

Matt is not extremely impressive when you look at his statistics. Matt started 15 games in 2007, racking up an ERA of 3.69, posting a 5-7 record and only giving the Twins an average of 5.5 innings a start. With all that being said, we must remember that he is only 24-years old and was listed as the seventh best prospect in the Minnesota Twins minor league system entering the 2006 season. He has also demonstrated that he can pitch, striking out 11 against the Indians on July 29th.

Jason Bartlett brings some more speed to the Tampa Bay line-up, stealing 23 bags, and slapping 20 doubles and 7 triples. He did, however, give up 26 errors. When considering the switch of Brandon Harris for Jason Bartlett, I think that the Devil Rays walked away with the better hand…

The team did try to add some veteran experience by adding Cliff Floyd. Cliff has had an up and down career due primarily to injury. The team’s website has him listed as their starting DH. With limited playing time and more opportunity to focus on his plate presence, this move could prove very fruitful for a team that is struggling to get out of their historical funk and into a more prominent position with an extremely difficult division.

To add arms to the bullpen was important and the team did what they could to bolster their late-inning efforts, signing relief pitcher Troy Percival to a two-year contract and executing the contract option on closer Al Reyes.

The team did invite veteran C Mike DeFelice to spring training, giving young Dioner Navarro a run for his money.

Players Lost

Beyond the trade of Delmon Young and Brandon Harris, you really could not use the word “lost”. The Washington Nationals did acquire OF Elijah Dukes for a minor league player and RP Shawn Camp did fly north to Toronto for a spring training invite. There are several players who were not re-signed and remain a free agent market, however, none have any roster or fantasy impact.

Moves Still To Come

When reviewing the roster, it is clear that the team has taken a step forward, especially in their pitching rotation and bullpen. The addition of SP Matt Garza and RP Troy Percival shows a willingness to push passed their historical disappointments and starts to look towards the future with promise. This does not imply that there still is not a need for assistance in these areas. The team has three solid relief pitchers (Reyes, Percival, and Dan Wheeler) but need to either seek an arm or two in the free agent market or rely on young arms such as Scott Dohmann, Juan Salas, and possibly taking young Jason Hammel and J.P. Howell. With the age of their veterans, these young pitchers need to step up their game, settle down in their pitch control, and round off this bullpen.

In addition, the starting pitching consisting of young arms truly has no veteran leadership. Scott Kazmir, Jamey Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnastine, and Edwin Jackson have a combined 1 years of experience (2.4 year avg.). What this team needs is someone who has “been there, done that” and can eat up some serious innings to take away some of the pressure on the bullpen. Look to the Devil Rays to try using the youth and speed of their line-up along with the veteran arms in the bullpen to lure a pitcher like World Series starter Josh Fogg or inning eating Livan Hernandez.

What to Watch in Spring Training

I believe that the Devil Rays will be one of the most exciting teams to watch as they have many positions to finalize.

With the departing of starting 2B Brandon Harris and top minor league prospect 3B Evan Longoria expected to make the leap into the big leagues, second year INF Akinori Iwamura makes the transition from third base to second.

There are obvious candidates to take the 7th inning, setup, and closer position with Wheeler, Percival, and Reyes on the payroll. The interesting part will be watching each of these three run out there every day and compete to be the closer.

The same could be said for the starting rotation. Unless the team does wheel and deal for a veteran that can help lead the youth, eat innings every chance they can, and be talented enough to help lead this team above the .500 mark, they will have to evaluate and invest the pitching staff’s time building up 2 of the 4 young pitchers battling for the fourth/fifth starter position, a position in the bullpen, or risk being sent to the minors.

While many eyes will be focused on the top three starting pitchers and the talented outfield, they will not be the only one’s benefitting from the “awe” of spring training. 3B Evan Longoria will receive his fair share of publicity. The team is hoping that he rivals the year that Boston Red Sox’s Rookie of the Year, Dustin Pedroia. Evan had an excellent AA (Montgomery Biscuits) campaign in 2007, hitting 21 homeruns, 78 runs, and 76 runs batted in 381 at bats. Additionally, he posted a .307 batting average. He did make the leap to AAA (Durham Bulls), getting 104 AB and posting some mediocre numbers (.269 BA, 19 2B, 32 SO). The question is, can he make the jump essentially from AA to the “bigs”?

All in all, I believe this team is positioned to post their best season ever. I am not suggesting that they are playoff-bound; however, I do believe they are certainly better than the Baltimore Orioles and should be competitive enough that if the Blue Jays continue on their stumbling ways, they could win 80 games and place third in the division behind the Yankees and the Red Sox.

MLB Hot Stove: Toronto Blue Jays

2008-01-16T00:32:00.000-05:00

Can Vernon Wells return to his 30-100-100 form in 2008?

Roster Decisions

Recently Departed

With 2007 and all it’s hopes of contending for an American League East gone, the Blue Jays and J.P. Ricciardi are in the process of preparing for another run against the two of the highest payrolls in baseball, the Yankees and the Red Sox.

There were several players that left the organization, most of which were signed by other teams, however, most of which are not considered to have any real impact on the team or fantasy-wise. UT Howie Clark was signed November 22, 2007 by the Minnesota Twins, getting the invite to spring training; 40-man roster OF John-Ford Griffin was signed and invited to the Los Angeles Dodgers spring training; and 3B Ryan Roberts was signed by Texas, also getting a spring training invitation.

The only real player of note comes via a recent trade. Troy Glaus came to the Blue Jays with hopes of reviving his career and establishing himself as an all-star caliber third baseman.

Unfortunately, as has been the case over the past three years, Glaus had a big pop at the plate, little to do in the batting average department, and invested a lengthy amount of time on the disabled list.

Sticking Around

The team made only two attempts to invest in departing players. The ageless Matt Stairs (OF) was re-signed to a two-year deal on November 2, 2007. Matt had a career year with similar statistical output as he did in 2003 when he was with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The only other player to receive an invite back the team, in the form of a spring trainee invitation, was C Sal Fasano on December 14, 2007. Most of the work to rebuild the team came via free agency.

New Additions

Knowing that they needed to add depth to the line-up, the Toronto Blue Jays have made several roster moves to try and solidify their offense, bringing more consistency. Although Aaron Hill did a great job filling in at both shortstop and second base, it was apparent that he was more comfortable playing second base. To demonstrate their desire for more consistency in the line-up, the team signed 2006 World Series MVP SS David Eckstein to a one-year deal.

They also added an excellent utility infielder Marco Scutaro. Marco spent the better part of four years in the Oakland organization. Although he does not bring tremendous speed or power, what he does is bring more versatility to the infield, allowing players to rest without losing anything too significant in the line-up.

The biggest splash they have made this off-season occurred when the team announced the 3B switch with the St. Louis Cardinals. The team, seeking more consistency at the plate, opted for limited bat strength for better average and on-base percentage, acquiring perennial gold glove 3B Scott Rolen. The Cardinals needed a big bat and the Blue Jays needed consistency. This deal appears as a “win-win” for both organizations. Each upgraded their line-up in a way that makes them more viable and each traded away an injury-prone third baseman.

Down on the Farm

The Blue Jays have several talented young prospects in their organization; however, the most prominent of them have all ready made the leap to the big leagues in 2007. In his first full season, Dustin McGowan accrued some impressive numbers, 12 wins, giving 169 innings and 144 strikeouts. Rookie SP Jesse Litsch also put together some very promising starts. If it had not been for the lack of run production out of their batting line-up, there would have been more opportunity to post wins, allowing this young staff to gain more confidence as the season went on.

Another fine addition to the major league team was 2B/SS Aaron Hill. Hill made a big splash in the fantasy world in 2007. Although technically in his third season, Aaron went the common practice of being called up and down throughout the 2005 and 2006 season. In ’07, however, he secured himself as a starter and responded by pushing out 17 homeruns, 87 runs and 78 runs batted in. Hill, batting an impressive .291 was one of the bright spots outside of the young pitchers that established themselves.

Many of the prospects are at least a year away. The organization’s top prospect is OF Travis Snider. Snider spent the majority of the year playing for the Lansing Lugnuts. Travis reeled off 16 homeruns, 93 runs batted in, and 72 runs all while batting .313. Although he stole only 3 bases, his 7 triples and 35 doubles surely lend itself to great power potential.

Beyond Travis, there are two stand out prospects that are on many teams radars, that being 3B Kevin Ahrens, selected 16th overall in 2007. The organization has prided itself on its ability to evaluate talent. This is never more evident than when we turn our thoughts on LHP Brett Cecil. This flame-throwing closer is surely making a name for him in the organization. This kid is all ready throwing a slider that is considered to be major league quality. With the pitching situation in desperate need of a face lift, Cecil is the most likely to make the roster.

Where to Next?

This team is posed for a third place finish in the division as they will not be able to hang with the Red Sox and Yankees all season, however, they very well could land the second spot, with the either the Yankees or the Sox taking the other position. The Tigers, Angels, Indians, Yankees, and Red Sox are more than likely to be in the top five teams in the American League, however, the White Sox, Blue Jays, and Twins will all be competitive enough to make a “National League”-like run for the playoffs.

There are a lot of “ifs” associated with this thinking, starting with the health of Scott Rolens (Can he stay healthy?), the return of B.J. Ryan (absolute steal in the draft if he makes it to spring training), and whether Vernon Wells can bounce back to his previous three years worth of statistical output. The team’s weakest positions are the middle relief, with young setup man Jeremy Accardo, Casey Jannsen, and the veteran Scott Downs expected to shoulder the bulk of the load, as well as the catcher. Veteran Greg Zaun will likely see the majority of playing time with Sal Fasano will likely backing him up, receiving more time than most back-ups due to the age of Zaun.

The last “if” is a big one. Can A.J. Burnett stay healthy? When he is, he is one hard-throwing right hander…when he is not; he is one of the most expensive paperweights on the payroll. I expect Aaron Hill to continue to produce homeruns, increasing to the early to mid-twenties, along with at least 90 runs batted in, making him one of the best draft day sleepers at the second base position.

The infield is wrought with solid fielders. Eckstein and Rolens will yield high-percentage fielding average. Hill should see a decrease in errors as he grows accustomed to learning the fielding routines of one position and Overbay will continue to be better than average.

Will this team stay healthy and consistent enough to make a run for the playoffs? Only time will tell.

Fantasy Corner

3 Fantasy Keepers:

1. Alex Rios – Watch out, ladies and gentlemen! This five-tool athlete turns the magic “27” next month. Anyone who is involved with fantasy baseball is aware of what that means to a productive baseball player. Alex is primed for a 30-100-100-25 year. With Rolens, Wells, Stairs, and Overbay around him in the line-up, especially with Eckstein in front of him, this should be a career year for Rios. Draft him early and often, regardless of what the “experts” say.

2. Dustin McGowan – Towards the end of the season, Dustin actually got stronger, including a complete game, 9 strikeout effort against the eventual World Series Champion Boston Red Sox. McGowan had his magic “27” year last year but that should have no affect on where to project this kid over the coming years. He will be well worth the value as a keeper in any league.

3. Jeremy Accardo – Filling in for the injured B.J. Rayn, Jeremy amassed 30 saves, 4 wins, an ERA of 2.14, and struck out 127. Whether Ryan is ready to go or not, Jeremy will play a big part in the success of this ball club for years to come. His WHIP will improve as it did throughout the ’07 season, showing that he is a value at the relief pitcher position (once all the top closers are gone, of course.)

3 Fantasy Sleepers

1. Vernon Wells – Like Andruw Jones, Wells had career lows in almost every statistical category. With the “short term” memory of most fantasy GMs, it is imperative that you draft him where YOU think his value is, not where the books/magazines you poor over prior to your draft say his value is. I believe that he will post his typical 80+ runs, 30+ homeruns, and 100+ RBI. He will also nab you 15-20 steals, raising his batting average in line with his previous marks (.280+), making him an ideal sleeper in a 5X5 league.

2. Aaron Hill – Although he may not qualify for both SS & 2B as he did in ’07, the truth be told, with a .290 batting average, 18-20 homeruns, 80-80 or better potential at runs-runs batted in, and is fast enough to swipe 10-12 bases, he will be an absolute bargain towards the tail end of your draft.

3. Scott Rolen – Yes, he is likely to only play in 140 games…and Yes, he did have to significant injuries in the past five years. BUT… the injuries have never been back to back and, he still can knock out 25 homeruns, give you near 90-90 production at runs/runs batted in, and will give you a boost at the batting average, having a lifetime average of .280+.

Next: MLB Hot Stove: Baltimore Orioles, Sunday, January 20, 2007

Previous MLB Hot Stove Articles:
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox

MLB Hot Stove: New York Yankees

2008-01-14T13:05:00.000-05:00

Can Chien-Ming Wang become a 20-game winner? (NYTIMES.COM)

Roster Decisions

Recently Departed

It appears that the New York Yankees are up to their old antics, but it is not necessarily the same. As the new year approaches, the team is once again a turn-style for incoming and departing players. Among the many that find themselves out of pinstripes into the free agency market. Veterans such As RP Scott Williamson and his years of shoulder and elbow injuries, SP/RP Ron Villone, 1B Doug Mientkiewicz, and the biggest topic of conversation in baseball, SP Roger Clemens, who spent most of the time nursing injuries and soaking up a ridiculous 4.5M a month. There were several other players of relative to no significance and will not even be noticed by the most avid of fans.

What appears to be the most significant change between the Yankee’s of 2008 and the team’s of the past ten years is that you do not mention the Yankee’s with every top-tiered free agent on the market. Players like Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, went signed without even a footnote in a news article. Now that…THAT…is something amazing.

Sticking Around

The team wasted no time in its decision-making process to solidify those on their staff that either had contract extension opportunities are free agents that could be enticed away with lucrative long-term deals. Can the organization finally have realized the grass is not always greener on the other side?

One of the first decisions in the off-season was quick and easy, executing the team option on RF Bobby Abreau’s contract. Abreau did not exactly put up the power numbers he has in the past, but with an above .300 batting average, solid play in the field, and the speed in the base paths, the team simply could not have let him go.

They also could not have worked out a long-term deal this year as they had several all-star caliber (dare I say Hall of Fame caliber) players that needed to be re-signed. The team wasted no time in negotiating and ultimately re-signing Mariano Rivera to a 3-year, 45M contract that guarantees (arguably) the best closer in history finishes his career in pinstripes. The second player that needed a long-term deal was perennial All-Star catcher Jorge Posada; the two sides quickly agreeing on a 4-year, 52.4M that assured he will be behind the plate for years to come.

With LHSP Andy Pettitte who considered retirement, the team and Andy’s agent were able to come to a 1-year contract that avoided arbitration and kept this beloved starting pitcher where he is wanted most, the Yankee organization. In the same conversation of pitchers, I am impressed with the team’s decision to sign RP Luis Vizcaino to a 2-year deal, adding depth to a bullpen that well underperformed for the names that were on the roster.

Lastly, we consider the bizarre scenario that is surrounded Alex Rodriguez. The team repeated throughout the season that if Alex was not going to agree to the contract options on his contract, that they would not negotiate with him during free agency. The biggest reason was the millions they would lose from the Texas Rangers if he did not. Brian Cashman went as far as to say that “it is definitive that they will not negotiate with Alex and will seek elsewhere for the services of a third baseman. Many, including myself, felt that they would make a strong run at Boston Red Sox 3B Mike Lowell, however, the “unthinkable” happened… The Yankee organization went back on their “definitive” statement and negotiated with A-Rod anyways. The difference was the absence of Scott Boras, Alex’s agent. The deal was as astronomical as his statistics, a monumental 10-year, 275M contract.

New Additions

The team has never suffered in the offensive production categories and up till recently (the past 4 years), their pitching staff has been just as solid. The steady decline of their bullpen has been slowly turning around as Mariano Rivera has found his cut fastball which is as dominant as ever (except, of course, against the Red Sox) and the emergence of the flame-throwing Joba Chamberlain who has become the Yankee’s answer to Jonathan Papelbon.

In 2007, the team dealt RP Scott Proctor who had worn out his welcome in the Yankee organization with his less than stellar performance, being traded away for the very young and talented INF Wilson Betemit. In 2008, the team has all ready made a splash with the signing of RHRP LaTroy Hawkins. Hawkins, while with the Colorado Rockies uniform, continued to demonstrate average statistics, never regaining his 2002/2003 prowess while with the Minnesota Twins. However, with the scarcity of quality bullpen help, LaTroy will fill in perfectly with the team. LaTroy will likely be used as middle relief, often going 2 innings or more as a 5th/6th/7th inning guy.

Tyler Clippard, once a promising young pitcher in the Yankee’s organization, the team apparently lost faith in the young gunslinger. They traded him this past December to the Washington Nationals for RP Jonathan Albaladejo. Albaladejo had only 14.3 innings in 2007, all of them coming in appearances from a September call-up. He did, however, post some impressive numbers, going 1 – 1, striking out 12, and posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.628 WHIP.

The team did invite 1B Andy Phillips to spring training in hopes that he matures enough to grow into the position and his potential as well as C Wil Nieves, however with the re-signing of Jose Molina, it appears that this will be to grade the prospect as well as get him valuable experience; If for nothing else, to showcase him if he does play well.

Down on the Farm

Brian Cashman has done a tremendous job with the organization’s farm system when you consider how often George Steinbrenner went to that well over the past 5-10 years, often “trading away the farm” for veteran big-name players that were far past their primes.
Not shockingly, 8 of the Top 10 prospects projected In the Yankees’ organization are pitchers.

This past season, we saw both SP Philip Hughes and RP Joba Chamberlain make the jump to the big stage. This year, the likely candidate to join the team early is SP Ian Kennedy, sought to be included in any trade talks that involved Johan Santana. There are several pitchers, including RP J. Brent Crox (closer potential) and SP Jeff Karstens, who will be in spring training and has an outside shot of making the team. Karstens had a cup of coffee in the majors last year, going 2-2 with an ERA of 4.79, walking almost as many batters as he struck out (13 BB, 17 K).

Unfortunately, if you are not named Duncan (1B/OF Shelley Duncan and 1B/3B Eric Duncan), than you need to be a pitcher if you expect to make the jump from minors to majors in 2008.

That is not to say that there is not plenty of talent in the Yankees’ farm system, but has more to say about the solidity of the depth chart everywhere except pitching. To add to the woes of the farm, the Yankees just signed OF Jason Lane to a minor league deal and invited him to spring training.

Where to Next?

To say that the bomb squad is back is not only truthful but accurate. When you consider a 1-9 that consists of Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreau, A-Rod, Robinson Cano, Jorge Posada, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui, with Melky Cabrera, Shelley Duncan, and Wilson Betemit coming off the bench, this team appears to be offensively indestructible. There will always be health issues with Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon, but all in all, this is one of the most potent line-ups in baseball.

The potential for trouble starts and ends with pitching. Joe Girardi needs to establish early on whom he can count on to fulfill the starting rotation and bullpen if they plan to stay in the race with the likes of Boston, Detroit, and Cleveland. As it stands today, your starting five is a solid mix of up-and-coming youth (Chien-Ming Wang, Philip Hughes, and Ian Kennedy) and savvy veterans (Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina). On their website they list Joba Chamberlain as the fifth starter, but I do not see anyone who can step up and become the setup man other than Joba. I assume that Luis Vizcaino would be a consideration, as would newly acquired LaTroy Hawkins, but in a division where you are up against the BoSox, my money is on him to be the setup man to Mariano Rivera.

As for the bullpen, beyond Rivera and Chamberlain, there are some real questions. Young RP Edwar Ramirez has shown flashes of brilliance and could turn out to be a fine addition to the bullpen that presently consists of Vizcaino, Chris Britton (who, if shows early on does have the “stuff” to be a setup man), and Hawkins. Additionally, there are several “unknowns” that could emerge, including Ross Ohlendorf who posted a 2.84 ERA in six games and young Jeff Karstens who may prove serviceable at a relief pitcher position until things open up for a starting spot in the future.

The “X” factor is if the Yankees are selected in the Johan Santana sweepstakes. Although recent news suggests that the Twins want nothing more than to trade away Santana, not only to the National League and away from facing him during the regular season, but specifically to the Mets who are contemplating giving up a ton of young talent. Although not impossible, it appears unlikely that the Yankees will go that extra step and give up too much to get him. I expect this team to be in contention for the division regardless of their initial pitching woes… Girardi has a knack of getting young players to perform at “ceiling” level play, early in their careers.

Fantasy Corner

3 Fantasy Keepers:

1. Robinson Cano – He has slowly crept up the charts without too much fanfare, which is surprising, considering the numbers that he established in ’07. Cano is poised at the very least for a 25-100-100 season, taking his career batting average of .314 and making a serious run at “best second baseman” in the AL. It cannot be long before he turns those 41 doubles from ‘06 and repeat performance in ’07 and gets a little more wood behind them.

2. Alex Rodriguez – Fetching, on average, the highest pre-set cost in salary cap leagues as well as landing the most money in fantasy auction leagues, A-Rod continues to demonstrate why he is worth a 10-year, 275M contract. Up until last year, I would have said he was still, fantasy-wise, slightly overrated because he would go significant stretches where produced little to no fantasy points, however, last year was the most consistent season he has had and therefore warrants many a first pick in this coming years fantasy drafts.

3. Chien-Ming Wang – You cannot win 19 games in your first two seasons, be second in Cy Young votes in your rookie year and not have the word keeper attached to your name. This young right-handed pitcher has a nasty sliding that simply leaves batters standing at the plate with their bats on their shoulders. Consider that in both ’06 and ‘07 he did not get the benefit of all of his starts. In ’06, his call-up came later in the spring, missing 3-5 starts and last year he spent time on the D/L. With an increase from 76 SO to 104 SO, you can only imagine that these numbers, including innings pitched, should sky-rocket in 2008.

3 Fantasy Sleepers:

1. Johnny Damon – When your draft finishes this year, you will be so absolutely shocked at how low you were able to draft this 100-25-90-25 guy, that you will often have spurts of laughter the whole ride home. I have been part of several “expert mock drafts” and even though people all sound shocked when he is picked so late, the next time we draft, they do the same thing.

2. Philip Hughes – Battling injuries (two stints on the D/L) and pitch control (29 BB, 58 SO in 72.2 Innings) have placed doubt in the average to above-average fantasy GM. This is when you pounce on him like a lion. Philip Hughes showed why he is so valued in the organization towards the end of the season when he went 3-0 in his last four starts. With a year under his belt, you can bet that his pitch control will improve as his nerves calm down and his strikeouts increase as he invests more time with Jorge and Pitching Coach Dave Eiland.

3. Ian Kennedy – There are reasons why Minnesota wants him included in any talks regarding Santana. He went 1-0 in three starts with an ERA of 1.89, all of which done in September as the team made a serious push for the playoffs. Battle tested from the get-go, this kid is sure to make a fantasy splash come mid-season.

MLB Hot Stove: Boston Red Sox

2008-01-09T00:00:00.000-05:00

Roster Decisions

Recently Departed

There were several players that departed from the Red Sox this off season, but the two that names really stand-out are starting pitcher Matt Clement and setup/closer Eric Gagne.
Matt came to the Red Sox in ‘06 with many expecting him to continue throwing “ gas” while working out his pitch selection and pitch control under the tutelage of All-Star and team captain Jason Varitek. This, however, was not the case. He struggled mightily, eventually going to the disabled list due to a nasty line drive to the head. Matt was recently offered and agreed to a 1-year contract with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Eric, on the other hand, had all ready struggled through injuries and re-established himself as a promising closer in 2007 in a Texas Ranger uniform. The Red Sox made a deadline trade for the once prominent closer and installed him in the role as setup man, to assist Hideki Okajima in setting the table for All-Star Jonathan Papelbon. Unfortunately for Gagne and the Red Sox, like so many other stars that have come and gone through Fenway, it appeared as though the demands of playing in Sox Nation were simply too much for him. To say that he imploded would be an understatement. The Red Sox appeared more than happy to receive Milwaukee Brewers’ first round draft pick in the 2008 draft when the Brewers agreed to a one-year, $10M contract in December.

Many of the other players that have not been either picked up by another major league roster or re-signed to the Sox organization include 2B Royce Clayton, RHRP Brandan Donnelly, 1B/RF Eric Hinske, RF Bobby Kielty, and Tim Wakefield’s battery partner, C Doug Maribelli.

Sticking Around

The Red Sox received two considerable hometown discounts as they came to terms on a new contract with 2007 World Series MVP, gold glove toting 3B Mike Lowell. Mike agreed to a 3-year, $37M contract that all but secures that he finishes his illustrious career in a Red Sox uniform. This is a considerable discount when you take into account that he had turned down a 4-year $50M contract to return to the Yankees organization, of which he was originally drafted, to become their starting first baseman.

The second discount received not only a discount financially from Curt Schilling, but a self-induced incentive clause based upon his weight/physical fitness. Curt Schilling has already secured a place in Red Sox history with his often referred to “bloody sock” performance in the 2004 World Series, but he has gained even more respect from Sox fans for inducing the “weight” clause to show that he does not intend to just siphon money out of the Red Sox payroll. Do not expect him to be the flame-throwing right hander that he was prior to the 2005 season, but you can place a healthy enough expectation that he will win you 14 – 17 games, which is all that you can ask from a projected third starter.

The Red Sox continued their run of excellent contract decisions by executing the contract extension options of the ageless Tim Wakefield and his inning-eating knuckleball, and Julian Tavarez and his ability to play the utility role for the pitching staff (23 games starting, 11 games in relief).

New Additions

Now here is a subject that is “all the buzz” around the MLB Hot Stove. The Red Sox are one of only a few that can afford AND has put up an offer that can be “considered” for arguably the best pitcher of this era, Minnesota Twins’ LHP Johan Santana.

Theo Epstein and the Red Sox Organization have put forward two player packages that include either top prospect/starting World Series CF Jacoby Ellsbury or World Series starting pitcher Jon Lester. Included in most packages are CF Coco Crisp (when Ellsbury is not included), and minor league prospects of note, RHP Justin Masterson, RHP Michael Bowden, SS Jed Lowrie, and LHP Dustin Richardson, all who are among the Sox’s Top 10 prospects list.

To date, the Minnesota Twins seem content with sitting on their hands and for the most part, the Red Sox organization and Sox Nation are as well. Most fans are unwilling to depart with either of the two headlining young talents (Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury), but the slogan heard all around Sox Nation is “In Theo we trust”.

Beyond that, there really does not appear to be too much in the free agent market that the Red Sox cannot comparatively pull from their minor league system, therefore I do not foresee them making any major deals but maybe a few hit or miss attempts for a situational relief pitcher.

Down on the Farm

To say that the Red Sox have reformed their “Yawkey Foundation” ways is an understatement. Like the Oakland Athletics, New York Yankees, and Los Angeles Dodgers, the Boston Red Sox have trusted their abilities to properly scout and draft excellent college and high school talent.
If you disagree, I simply ask you to turn to the 2007 World Series roster where you can find several names that jump out at you, most with fantasy impact. We will start with the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year, Dustin Pedroia. Although he got off to a rocky start, skipper Terry Francona stuck with this talented second baseman and rightly so, as he put up an amazing .317 batting average with 39 doubles, and on OBP of .380. He all but insured that David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez had the opportunities necessary to generate runs batted in, game in, and game out.

Names like Kevin Youkalis, who not only transitioned from 3B to 1B in his first full season, starting 135 games at 1B, but more importantly NEVER had an error, as well as starting pitcher Jon Lester who started in the series-deciding game in the divisional series, as well as an outstanding performance in the final game of the World Series. We also need to consider CF Jacoby Ellsbury who was a late September call-up, batting .353 in 116 at bats and 9 stolen bases, posting an impressive .417 batting average in the World Series. We cannot mention talent from the farm system without bringing up the name of the flame-throwing, furrowed eyebrow-staring, right-handed closer Jonathan Papelbon who in his first two full seasons secured two back-to-back 40 save seasons while having an astonishing 1.62 ERA in the process.

There are a few other names to look out for, primarily two that have a significant chance of making the roster at some point in the 2008 season, LHSP Clay Buckholz and SS Jed Lowrie.

You may recall Clay Bucholz during his cup of coffee in the majors in the 2007 season; after all, it is hard to forget a rookie making only his second start in the majors throwing a no-hitter. Only the 17th time in Red Sox history, this young right handed shot up to the top of every team’s wish list after becoming only the third major league pitcher since 1900 to throw a no-hitter in his first or second major league start. I assure you that he has the “untradeable” marked next to his name on every piece of paperwork in the Sox organization.

As for the young shortstop Jed Lowrie, he too has high expectations placed on him. Like Pedroia before him, Lowrie has shot up the minor league farm system, receiving an invitation to the 2008 Red Sox spring training and likely to get the call-up if anything happens to Julio Lugo or any of the middle infield players. Expect Lowrie to get a shot or two before September and will most assuredly to be added to the big leagues when the team expands to a 40-man roster.

Where to Next?

With a starting rotation that has Josh Beckett, Diasake Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, and Jon Lester, you can expect that the early season buzz is going to be about the team being primed for a repeat.

With the core of their batting lineup returning, especially David “Big Papi” Ortiz, Manny “Just being Manny” Ramirez, and the late season emergence of Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D.Drew, you can bet that this team is thinking the same thing…repeat!

When you consider that all three starting outfielders had essentially career lows statistically (Ramirez, Coco Crisp, Drew) and likely to turn themselves around AND the addition of Jacoby Ellsbury, that the team his little to worry about beyond the infield diamond.

The infield positions are also very much in place with Lowell, “Last out” Lugo, Pedroia, and Youkalis all returning, and utility INF Alex Cora still under contract. There really is not too much concern here either.

The two spots that need some beefing up is the back-up catcher role and the bullpen.

Jason Varitek is not getting any younger and there is not a clear cut prospect like they had in the past with now Cleveland Indian Kelly Shoppach no longer waiting in the wings, so the team will definitely need to do some hunting this off-season.

The bullpen, lead by All-Star setup man Hideki “Okey Dokey” Okajima and closer Jonathan “Wild Thing” Papelbon still need some spots filled. They have exercised the contract on Julian Tavarez and re-signed the timeless Mike Timlin, however, they appear to be relying on youth rather than free-agency or trade to solidify their bullpen. Manny DelCarmen has shown some flashes of brilliance, displaying a mean fastball near the mid-90s and the talk is that Clay Buckholz may be billed as a relief pitcher for the ’08 season, but they are still an arm or two short and I do not think that pitchers like RHP Kyle Snyder and LHP Javy Lopez are to be totally relied upon.

If the Red Sox do somehow coerce the Minnesota Twins into a trade for Johan Santana, there will be no doubt that they would be favored to repeat in 2008, which leads me to believe that the Twins will hold out as long as they can for the NY Mets to pull together enough talent to trade Johan to the National League and not have to worry about getting stung by their decision to trade him away.

Fantasy Corner

3 Fantasy Keepers:

1. Josh Beckett – After seeing how poised he was throughout the season, avoiding all but one blister problem and relying on his off-speed stuff more and relying less on simply trying to blow the ball past pitchers, it appears he is primed for many great years to come.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury – What this kid did in the World Series was nothing short of remarkable and easily put his name on the fantasy map. Expect him to start regardless of whether or not Coco Crisp is in a Sox uniform. He has 30-30 written all over him.

3. Clay Buckholz – It is not often that a pitcher is this heralded when he made less than four major league starts in his career, but Buckholz is one of them. You simply cannot throw a no-hitter and not be considered worthy of adding to a keeper league roster.

3 Fantasy Sleepers

1. J.D.Drew – Long known for his batting average (and consistent back problems), J.D. and his bat came to life at the most critical time for the Red Sox and showed why they rendered him such a lucrative, long term contract. With his up and down play throughout his career, he is not valued as high as he should be. He is playing in a ballpark that favors lefties, especially those who have pop at the plate, speed on the base paths, and can spray it to all fields.

2. Manny Ramirez – Now I am not suggesting that you wait till the 10th round to snag him in your fantasy league draft, however, I am saying that there is such hype around younger players and his appearance for declining statistics and slow starts gives you the opportunity to snag him as your second or third outfielder, making you look like a drafting genius come draft day. Many fantasy managers have short term memory and will likely not pay attention to the work that Manny is putting into this off-season. Expect him to blow up to his prototypical 40-100-.300 numbers that you expect from him.

3. Diasake Matsuzaka – Yes, he had a second-half swoon and yes, he demonstrated that he really does not have a “gyro” ball, but when you consider that he regained his confidence towards the end of the season and has never before been in a five-man rotation, going for as long of a season as the majors has, you have to expect that type of growing pains. He will get drafted in some leagues higher than he should, however, he will likely be drafted far later than he should in most leagues.

Next: MLB Hot Stove: New York Yankees, Saturday, January 12th, 2008

Tired of "Double-Speak"

2007-12-12T08:16:00.000-05:00

Are we hiring quality coaches or political masterminds?

The day has arrived of over-priced, under-achieving coaches who rose to NCAA stardom, went to the NFL, had monumental collapses, then returned to the game they "loved".

Steve Spurrier left Florida to embark on a career in the NFL, trying to take the "fun 'n gun" to the next level. After being railroaded by Washington Redskins owner Daniel Snyder and his ridiculous "Steinbrenner" approach to building teams [paying huge amounts out of his fat wallet for aging, veteran players on the decline], Spurrier decided to return to the NCAA. He elected to take a team that has always performed poorly in a conference that hosts arguably the strongest teams (talent-wise) in the nation, the S.E.C. In three years, he is bringing that program, the South Carolina Gamecocks, hope where it never existed. The key here is that he didn't try and beat around any bushes, said I am moving on and that was that.

In steps Nick Saban... "I am not taking the Alabama job". Well, we know how that turned out. From LSU to Miami, then to Alabama. Nick Saban was and is considered to be a recruiting genius with the ability to find talent, rope them in, and make something of them. Heck, Les Miles is making a killing off of his talent. Nick wasn't the first but he surely has been the most prominent figure to attach the "coaches double-speak" to. He out 'n out lied to everyone in the nation, claiming that he was the coach of the Miami Dolphins all while working out a deal with the University of Alabama. One word...."Snake".

"Hello, Bobby Petrino!". Next one to join this double speak is the ex-coach of the Atlanta Falcons. On Tuesday night, there was nothing to report...NOW... he is the the head coach of the Arkansas Razorbacks... Amazing! This shouldn't be as much a shock as this will be his 15th gig in his 20+ years of coaching. Mind you, he is a great talent, but it wasn't until Louisville that he made a name for himself. Without Brian Brohm, he would still be a middle-of-the-row coach with some notables but nothing to land him the "big gig" that he now holds today. Like Saban, he left an NFL team holding the bag...even worse, he didn't even wait till the end of the season.

Well, well, well... Les Miles. "You aren't going to be the Michigan coach?". This may be true in the end, but I do not believe for a millisecond that this isn't a consideration. His wife wants to go home and Michigan is "crown jewel". Although it makes sense not to say anything until after he wins a title (that they shouldn't be in), you should simply say "I will discuss nothing of this until our season is over"...something to the affect that "it is important to show the kids on my squad today my utmost attention to helping them fulfill a dream of a national title"...

You can't call Michigan, talk to the necessary people you need to IF you want to coach there, then say you are "helping them with their search"... This is true, but it is double-speak... YOU ARE WHO THEY ARE LOOKING FOR.

"I look forward to many years as the LSU head coach"...If this is true, then why is there a buy-out clause in your extension specifically for Michigan?

Hmmm.... "Miles? Are you talking to Saban lately?"

To be honest, I think that Spurrier is the only one of these guys with true character... he says it like it is, whether it be good or bad, taking credit either way... He didn't snake out of his contract like these three bozos and will continue to push for the Gamecocks to win big and win often.

I want a coach...not a politician!!!!!

Statistocrat

Santana and Sox? How it could work!

2007-11-30T15:35:00.000-05:00

As the drool continues to cover my chin as I realize the possibility that this deal could get done. Which deal? The deal that the Red Sox and the Twins are currently working! There are a few nay-sayers on each side of the fence, but let me tell you why this deal works for both teams.

THE NAY-SAYERS

The Nay-sayers in Minnesota are upset because they expect the world for Johan Santana and aren’t considering the business-side of these types of deals. The Twins organization face a tough situation as they have sunk tons of money into their new stadium and simply do not have the means or the desire to sign anyone to a deal that is going to tendered to the two-time Cy Young winner. They have three options. Trade Johan before the season begins (in my opinion, getting the most for your team). Wait till the trade deadline and get some good value but not near as much for an all-star with only half a year left on his contract and no guarantee of a long term deal. Or simply do nothing and enjoy the ticket sales until the year is up and hope something better comes along.

The Nay-sayers in Boston are going to be primarily focused on the loss of young left-handed Jon Lester. His story of battling cancer, returning, and playing a big part in their second World Series Trophy in four years will definitely be a hot topic in cooler conversations. Those who are extremely deep in knowledge of the organization will also be upset to see that there is going to be no play at trading away Julio "Last Out" Lugo, bringing up Jed Lowrie to do something along the lines of what Dustin Pedrioa did this year. Lastly, they would be upset if it’s Justin Masterson and not Michael Bowden. Justin has found big fans in both organization and Sox Nation as he screams up the farm system, pushing for the "Bigs".

BREAKING DOWN THE TRADE:

Minnesota lost their CF Torii Hunter to free agency, putting a hole in the line-up and an even bigger hole in their CF.

They made, in my opinion, a daring move (especially if they don’t get all they need out of a Santana deal) by trading away three young and promising players. Starting pitcher Matt Garza, who has shown great flare at the mound since his call-ups in 2007; SS Jason Bartlett who did well, showing speed and pop at the bat; And minor league RP Eduardo Morlan. In return, they upgraded 2B with Brandon, a relatively unknown OF Jason Pridie, and the gem of the deal, RF Delmon Young.

Young is the next big thing in baseball, especially showing sparks of being a "fantasy stud", voted second in rookie of the year ballots in 2007. Delmon brings speed and pop at the plate to replace Hunter and Harris brings some type of restitution to the fan base for departing with 2B Luis Castillo.

The Twins are now left short a centerfielder, a shortstop, and some much needed depth at pitching.

In steps the always opportunistic Theo Epstein, General Manager of the Boston Red Sox and demagogue of Red Sox Nation. The Red Sox are very smart about how they are attempting to lure Santana away from Minnesota. Take a look at how crafty the Sox organization has approached this trade.

The Red Sox are offering the services of …

Coco Crisp in centerfield, who is a career .280 hitter with some pop at the bat and speed all-around.

Jed Lowri, their top minor league shortstop in Jed Lowrie (who is making a name for himself across the minor league world)

World Series starting pitcher Jon Lester (Southpaw), and either two pitching prospects in Justin Masterson (who I am big on) and Michael Bowden.

PIECES OF A PUZZLE

Now, if you ask me, the Red Sox have more and are willing to do more, but not much. When you consider that they are handing them a great fielder and with the exception to his stint with Boston, a very good hitter, Coco Crisp would be a welcome addition for his speed, fielding, hitting, and paycheck. Jon Lester is simply better than Matt Garza and Bartlett was on-again, off-again and could easily be replaced by Jed Lowrie. Add in Justin Masterson and you have yourself a stud in the barn.

If you are unsure about the Red Sox prospects, I shall glance over those who have recently departed from their system. SS Hanley Ramirez (FLA), 3B Freddie Sanchez (PIT), 1B Kevin Youkalis, 2B Dustin Pedroia, CP Jonathan Papelbon, SP Anibel Sanchez (FLA, pitched a no-hitter), C Kelly Shoppach (CLE), SP Jon Lester, and CF Jacoby Ellsbury. If you dare to look at their stats, you will find that these are a fine crop of players and are welcome to most, if not all pro sports teams.

The pieces fit the needs… CF, SS, SP (Crisp, Lowrie, Lester, and Masterson/Bowden).

Unless someone blows them away, in which the Red Sox could counter, this is the Sox' deal to lose... Heck, this might be a done deal by the time the winter meetings end.

Statistocrat

Waiver Wire ~ Week 12

2007-11-20T12:47:00.000-05:00

Here continues my "Slim pickin's" approach to the fantasy football waiver wire. Just when you think there isn't a player out there that could impact your overall performance an injury occurs (NE running back corp.) or a breakout performance (Jason Campbell vs. The Dallas Cowboys).

Here are my "three and out" picks for Week 12's waiver wire.

QUARTERBACKS:

Matt Schaub: He appears to be healthy enough to get back to work. The return of Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones makes it even more profitable for the Houston Texans. Ron Dayne needs to continue to step up and perform well enough to keep defenses honest. Expect relatively the same performances he had prior to his hip injury and concussion.

Jason Campbell: Although the Redskins came out with a loss in Week 11, Jason demonstrated great poise and discipline while at the helm for the Washington offense. He is starting not only to show why Coach Joe Gibbs grabbed in him in the first round, but also why you should consider starting him in larger fantasy league formats.

David Garrard: He is not flashy, doesn't put up a ton of yardage or touchdowns in the air but his presence in the offense has sparked even more of a "forward motion" for the Jacksonville Jaguars. His feet give him the edge over most NFL quarterbacks as he has the ability to put his head down and run for a lot of yardage, having just as much possibility for him to run one in as it is to put on in the air.

RUNNING BACKS:

Andre Hall: With Travis Henry nursing his ankles and a suspension looming, it was Selving Young's turn to be the next "Mr. Relevant" in Denver. An injury put a big dent in an otherwise promising "injury filler". In steps Andre who has had a combined eight carries in his career, prior to Week 11's appearance against the Titans. He ripped off a 60+ yard run to solidify his chances of starting, if Selvin rides the pine.

Fred Taylor: The return of David Garrard is only going to improve Taylor's stats. He has the consistency of a seasoned veteran, getting 75 yards a game and a touchdown once in a while. Like Derrick Mason, Taylor has enough consistency to be considered a third option at their position.

Heath Evans: First it was Sammy Morris, then it was Kevin Faulk... Now it is Heath Evans. Heath has done this before, filling in for Corey Dillon for a few weeks almost two years ago. Heath is a fullback with enough field vision and prowess to fill in at the H-back position. No news on Laurence Maroney is not good nor bad as the New England Patriots are tighter with injury information is than the Pentagon is with clearance badges.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Bernard Berrian: Not because he is doing anything different, but because Rex Grossman will do all he can NOT to lose his starting position, which means relying more on those he can trust with the ball. Bernard is that guy. The offense seems to be stepping up, including Muhsin Muhammad, tight ends Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen, and even running back Cedric Benson stepping up their game. Berrian is the speedster of the group and should benefit most from the flourishing offense.

Drew Carter: He isn't fast, does not have great hands, nor is he consistent on his route running, but the Carolina Panthers have no one else to turn to as their team suffers a third consecutive season of season-demoralizing injuries to key players. Drew should get some good looks throughout the rest of the season, even if Steve Smith comes back to full health. When does anyone turn to the way they practice and the trainers for answers?

Arnez Battle: He is the play-maker on an otherwise abysmal offense. Battle has consistenly received 75+ yards, comparable to Derrick Mason. The offense does not lend confidence to starting him in most leagues, but he is averaging enough yards to warrant a third or fourth receiver on most rosters.

TIGHT ENDS:

Donald Lee: Donald Lee is growing into one of the premiere tight ends and no one is really focusing on it. He is tied for fourth most touchdowns for a tight end and has an exceptional match-up on Thanksgiving as the Green Pay Packers pay a visit to the Detroit Lions and their secondary that looks like a "swiss cheese" approach to defense.

Chris Baker: As Kellen Clemens becomes more acclimated to the offense, it appears that Chris Baker will finally come into his own, both fantasy-wise and as a tight end in the NFL in general. He is good pick-up if you are dealing with on-again, off-again tight ends.

Quinn Sypniewski: Heap isn't coming back at least for another week or two which means that Quinn will continue to replace him. The Baltimore offense will through a ton more when Kyle Boller is at the helm and he seems to rely on the tight end position as check down unlike Steve McNair who relied on his own legs or McGahee out of the backfield (or nothing at all and taking a loss of downs by getting rid of it or loss of yardage with a sack.)

And there you have it, this week's waiver wire... love'em or leave'em.

Statistocrat

"Manning's Seventh Pick of the Night"

2007-11-15T13:00:00.000-05:00

Just when Peyton Manning thought his night in San Diego couldn't get any worse.....It did.

After throwing a seasons worth of interceptions in one night, Peyton took to the streets of San Diego to have a cocktail to forget about his long day at work. When the waitress noticed him, she paid extra attention to him and made sure he was a happy consumer.

At the end of the night she came out with him and made a pass at him and tried to slip her phone number to him. The pass was intercepted by Antonio Cromartie.

Witnesses say that he came out of nowhere to make his fourth interception of the night. He then kicked Manning in the groin and jumped into a 1987 Dodge Caravan driven by Adam Vinatieri, and mooned the future hall of fame quarterback as it pulled away.

Now obviously this didn't happen, but this is the way that Peyton had to feel at the end of the day. He has had his worst game and will definitely be back his old form this week. He will be at home against a Kansas City defense that was just throttled by the Denver Broncos. I look for Addai to have a big first quarter which will force the Chiefs to load the box. Peyton will take over at that point. If he didn't have a chip on his shoulder before, he does now.

If John Lynch does not play, as he is currently questionable, that will put Hamza Abdullah on the last line of defense. He only has one pass defensed in three years of professional duty. If they try to put him in the box look for lots of play action pass over the top of the former 7th round draft pick.

Look for Indy...BIG...at home on Sunday. If you have players from Indy...Start em....

Sincerely,

Leroy the Fish

Week 11 ~ Waiver Wire

2007-11-13T08:00:00.000-05:00

The injuries have made this week's waiver wire worth-while. There are several players that are worth considering, especially in larger league formats.

Take some time to check out your roster and see if any of these players can contribute to the success of your team in the second half of the season.

QUARTERBACKS:

Kyle Boller: With the way that Steve "Air" McNair has been playing, it makes no sense to start him any further, in fantasy or in reality. He has not thrown deep in over three games eluding to the fact that he, unlike Favre, has lost a little in arm strength. He is hesitant in the pocket to release the ball and making poor reads when necessary. Kyle Boller is not much better at reading the defense, however, when the opportunity presents itself, he will at least launch the ball downfield and give his team an opportunity to put points on the board. The defense is on-again, off-again and cannot be relied upon to win them games.

David Garrard: Several people have either released him for a more prominent and available quarterback or saw that Quinn Gray was doing well enough to start him and dropped him for a position player during the plague that is the NFL off-week. David should be back by week 11. Even if he isn't, he is due back shortly and the team is coming off of a much needed win against the Tennessee Titans, keeping their playoff hopes alive.

RUNNING BACKS:

Selvin Young: With Travis Henry dealing with injuries and a potential suspension looming in the wind, Young has shown that he can deliver when counted on. He is a long shot to be available in your league, but if he is available, then he should be on your waiver wire. Expect him to continue to handle the ball as Henry faces all this adversity.

Ryan Grant: After this week, the Green Bay Packers actually have a running game. This is two week's in a row that Grant has shown he can get the job done when given the opportunity. No one, including Grant, saw this opportunity coming. If you were one of the wise (I was not) to pick him up last week, kudos to you. If he is still available, expect him to be gone this week.

Chester Taylor: Time shifts back to last year as Adrian Peterson hits the bench with a knee injury. The Minnesota Vikings do not have an offense to speak of but they mostly rely on the running game. With Peterson out of the way, Chester Taylor becomes sole owner of the touches at running back. He was dropped in plenty of leagues with the emergence of Peterson and will be picked up just as fast.

Chris Henry: With Chris Brown on the rebound and LenDale White with an apparent injury, it will likely be Henry that gets the majority of touches this weekend. He is not a viable, long term pick-up, but like Maurice Morris, can be useful for a week or two.

Maurice Morris: What better incentive than to back up Shaun Alexander and his litany of injuries. He did fairly well last night and may be counted upon for further games as the Seattle Seahawks attempt to rest and rejuvinate their stud running back.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Chris Henry: He was a threat two years ago and with another week under his belt, should be on his way to that same level in the coming weeks. With all of three of their top wide receivers and their star running back on the field again, the Cincinnati Bengals look to turn around their season and at worst, make the season look respectable to their fans.

Arnez Battle: He is the only one that is producing at wide receiver for San Fransisco. He may be the ONLY one performing well in San Fransisco. Arnez is among the top 25 wide receivers in yards per game and if nothing else, can be viewed as a good 3rd or quality 4th wide receiver in any line-up.

D.J. Hackett: Can D.J. Hackett finally live up to expectations? Matt Hasselbeck turned to him several times last night in their blow-out win of the San Fransisco 49ers and can't see that changing to much even when Deion Branch finally returns to the field. To be honest, the person that will get hit the most, production-wise, may be Nate Burleson.

TIGHT ENDS:

Will Heller: Here comes another Seattle Seahawk making the waiver wire. Heller has come on strong in the last two fantasy weeks. He is a viable option to pick-up to replace either an injured T0ny Scheffler, a poor start by Vernon Davis, or simply because there is such a lack of depth at this position.

Leonard Pope: Leonard will not net you a ton of yards, but what he has shown is that he is target that will be turned to in the red zone. He is a great, young talent and will grow into this line-up as the Arizona Cardinals try and make a playoff run in the coming weeks.

It is a small list, but there are some solid candidates to be considered when adding depth to your line-up or filling in for major/minor injuries to your starting staff.

Good Luck and Happy Hunting (for free agents, that is.).

Statistocrat

"Call for a 'Priest', we just lost Johnson"

2007-11-05T15:00:00.000-05:00

As all but the most faithful of Chief fans mourn the lose of Larry Johnson, and their season, the organization appears to have been planning for it. They've called in the 'Priest' to administer the last rites of the offense, their star running back, and handing over control to their Father of yardage.

It seems like eons since we last used the name Priest Holmes and the phrase "starting running back", but those days are amidst us again.

When discussions started popping up in late July and early August about the reemergence of this prolific running back, , it appeared that it was crazy, to say the least, that we would see him revive his career at any level, let alone play in a game. This running back once holding the single season record for most touchdowns in a season... now he is coming off a three year hiatus with no guarantees bey0nd L.J.'s return.

He not only proved through spring training release and reattempt that he could, that his drive would prove to be as strong as ever. Now it is even more evident that he may in fact see significant time on the field. I do not believe that this is going to revive either his career or the flailing offense of the Chiefs, but it may at least cushion the blow of a disappointing season with one of the cities most believed of football characters.

As if the inability of veteran Huard (8 TDs, 9 INTs) and Brodie Croyle's poor decision-making skills, the loss of L.J. should be absolutely crushing to Chief's fans. The defensive secondary, the emergence of Rookie Dwayne Bowe, and the career records of Tony Gonzalez are the only things that keep fans going to games. Maybe the return of Priest can keep them in their seats and save the corporate ownership from holding flea markets and bake sales in the parking lot next spring to keep the doors open.

FANTASY IMPACT: As much as I can't believe that I am saying this, Priest could have more of an impact than most of the injury replacements popping up around the league right now. Heck, Holmes may have more impact than the majority of the starting running backs in the league, as it stands today. He should have more of an impact than back-up running backs Echemandu (HOU) and the recent departed Michael Bennett (TB), more consistent than Fargas (OAK) and Jesse Chatman (MIA), and have better second half statistics than starters Alexander (SEA), Gore (SFO), and Jones (NYJ). I won't neglect to mention several others who have been spotty, if showing up at all [Edge (ARI), Dunn (ATL), Maroney (NE)].

So break out all your old Priest Holmes jerseys, paint you face Chief's red, and watch him make his return to the gridiron this coming Sunday as the Chiefs play host to one of the worst run defenses in the league, the Denver Broncos.

Statistocrat

Week 10 ~ Waiver Wire

2007-11-05T08:00:00.000-05:00

Here continues my "slim pickin's" approach to the waiver wire watch. This week, we have a few teams on a bye-week that have big fantasy impacts. All right, so maybe it's mostly the Patriots, but with Brady, Maroney, Welker, Stallworth, Moss, Watson, and the D/ST, it's a pretty big hit to some fantasy teams

BYE-WEEK: TEXANS, PATRIOTS, JETS, BUCCANEERS

Here is a look at who may be available on your waiver-wire and why you should pick them up to fill-in for injuries and bye-weeks.

QUARTERBACKS:

Patrick Ramsey: Patrick is not the greatest pick-up, but for teams that require two quarterbacks or someone who relied on Jay Cutler, this is your guy. The Denver defense couldn't handle the Lions nor could their offense for that matter. Shanahan is intelligent and will limit Ramsey's attempts next week, relying mostly on the run game to produce points, but he is still a quarterback and they are few and far between, when it comes to availability.

J.P. Losman: If for some reason you didn't believe me last week, you should now. Losman has something to prove and he will do it on the field. It helps that Lynch is fully entrenched at the RB position and Lee Evans is starting to produce like we thought he would all season. Expect Buffalo to make a big second half splash and Losman will have a great deal to do with it.

David Garrard: He is likely going to be be back Week 11 but all hopes are that he is available for Week 10. If it turns out to be 11, at least you have him and are ready to re-insert him into the line-up to replace whomever it is that you have been substituting on a weekly basis at your QB position. Garrard has yet to throw a pick and has the ability to get it done with his legs too.

RUNNING BACKS:

Priest Holmes: It looks like the only ones who are going to survive the Larry Johnson injury are those who have him in keeper leagues... all others are going to be absolutely miserable (myself included in a few leagues). Who knows how well he will do, but he is better than anything else available at the present moment. If you own Johnson, Priest is tops on your waiver wire requests.

Kevin Faulk: With the way the Patriots are running their offense, the second back gets enough touches to be considered a fantasy impact. With Sammy Morris gone for the season, Kevin has shown that he is THAT guy. Grab'em while he's hot, especially with the bye week coming, most will wait...you shouldn't.

Michael Robinson: With the 49ers heading down an ugly road and Frank Gore ailing with numerous injuries, expect the 49ers to protect their RB asset. You may very well see more and more of Robinson as the season progresses, giving him time to develop into a true NFL back. This is a guess on my part, but it makes sense.

Najeh Davenport: Mike Tomlin told reporters that he wants Parker to get first shot at the end zone, but after that, it's Davenport they will rely on... When the match-up is right, he is a great fill-in, sometimes even better than starting Parker. If you need depth, he may very will fill your roster needs.

DeShaun Foster: He is being relied upon more and more as the passing game has gone sour. Steve Smith was clearly missing (even though he played, 1 reception for 15 yards???). Foster has been a career second half back and if you didn't grab'em last week, go for him this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Reggie Williams: He is clearly the best WR the Jaguars have and Quinn & Garrard both like to go deep with him. The more they try, the better they are getting... He only had two receptions this past Sunday, but totalled 78 yards. Nuff' said.

Marques Colston: Here he comes again. The Saints look good and Colston is making the most of his opportunities. He had 159 yards this week and 3 TDs the week before. He is only available in a few leagues, but maybe yours is one of them.

Derrick Mason: Here is a guy who is quietly putting up great fantasy numbers, averaging 76.3 yds a game. He enjoyed the absence of Heap and now has the confidence of the QB to be relied upon even when Todd returns. He is a great 3rd WR in most leagues.

Shawn McDonald: Right when 90% of owners drop him, he makes them add him back to their roster throught the waiver wire. Expect his production to continue now that the running game of Detroit is working fairly well...

TIGHT ENDS:

Donald Lee: He is turning into Bubba Franks while Franks is still on the team. We all know that the "Packers equals passing yards", with no run game to speak of... Donald Lee is turning into a go-to guy, especially as a check down now that they have determined that the RBs can't get it done.

Jeff King: As the team relies on Carr to get the job done, King becomes invaluable, especially when there isn't a second WR to worry the secondary of their opponents. King is second on the receptions chart for the Panthers and will be called upon more than most TEs in the league from here forward. A great substitute if you own Big Ben Watson.

David Martin: Here is a guy who can have a big impact during the second half of the season. With limited running ability, the trading of WR Chris Chambers, Martin becomes the third option (if you count Nick Hagan as the second). Look for him to have a better than average second half. [Check to see if he is going to be available as he is nursing an ankle injury]

These are my picks for waiver wire that may/should still be available in most free agents pools. I hope that this blog helps you fill some line-up voids and continues your progress to a league championship.

Statistocrat

"Agent 0" meets "Mean Green 3"

2007-11-02T08:00:00.000-04:00

Is this a dream fit or a fight in the making...Only time will tell.

The "TD Banknohhth Gahhden" will be, simply put, frenzied tonight as thousands of Green fans hit the streets of Boston to see their new team. Although two years removed from Massachusetts, I myself will be glued to the tube as the Wizards and Agent 0 come a knockin' on the Celtics' door. There is much to be said for the matchups and how the game will end, so I dare to take on this endeavor to overview the season-opening game of the C's.

First, we must look at the hype that has been built up by no one but "Agent 0" himself. Gilbert Arenas has been quoted (The Washington Post) as saying....

"On November 2nd, we're going to go into that building, we're opening up Boston," Arenas wrote. "Right now I'm telling the Boston fans: You guys are going to lose. It's not going to be a victory for Boston. You might as well just cheer for me, because Boston isn't winning in Boston for the season opener. I'm sorry."

The best part about this article is the quote that Gilbert gave after their season-opening loss to the Pacers (mind you, without Jermaine O'Neil and Troy Murphy) was quoted, when asked about tonight's game verse the C's....

"Nah, I'm not making any predictions."

In my opinon, that was a smart move. Don't get me wrong, this Wizard's team IS good... and should be better, but they suffered a huge loss with starting Center Eton Thomas developing a heart condition that is likely put him out for the season. Here is a quick look at the positional matchups by statistics per game (career) for the starting line-ups projected tonight:

[p=points per game; b=blocks; a=assists; s=steals; r=rebounds; m=minutes]

(C ) PG Rajon Rondo: 6-1 171 lbs; 6.4/p; 3.8/a; 1.6/s; 3.7/r; 23.5/m

(W) PG Deshawn Stevenson: 6-5 218 lbs; 8.2/p; 1.7/a; .05/s; 2.4/r; 23.1/m

(C ) SG Ray Allen: 6-5 205 lbs; 21.5/p; 3.9/a; 1.3/s; 4.6/r; 37.5/m

(W) SG Gilber Arenas: 6-4 215 lbs; 22.9.p; 5.5/a; 1.8/s; 4.2/r; 37.5/m

(C ) PF Kevin Garnett: 6-11 220 lbs; 20.5/p; 1.7/b; 4.5/a; 11.4/r; 38.3/m

(W) PF Antwan Jamison: 6-9 235 lbs: 19.4/p; 0.3/b; 1.8/a; 7.7/r; 36.4/m

(C ) SF Paul Pierce: 6-7 235 lbs; 23.6/p: 1.7/s; 3.9/a; 6.5/r; 37.8/m

(W) SF Caron Butler: 6-7 228 lbs; 15.4/p; 1.6/s; 2.5/a; 5.8/r; 35.5/m

(C ) C Kendrick Perkins: 6-10 208 lbs; 4.0/p, 1.1/b, 0.9/s, 4.6/r, 16.6/m

(W) C Brendan Haywood: 7-0 263 lbs; 6.9/p, 1.3/b, .04/s, 5.7/r, 22.9/m

When you look, position by position, it appears a lot closer than it should be. The Wizards have their own three, Arenas, Butler, and Jamison to match up with the Celtics Allen, Pierce, and Garnett. This should make for an exciting game.

The question is not who wins the battle at these three positions as much as it is who wins at the other two...

THE "QUESTIONS":

Can the size and strength of Wizard's point guard Stevenson overwhelm Rondo or will the passing ability of Rondo eliminate the size difference and focus the battle more on a team level than a positional level?

Can Kendrick Perkins overcome the size and ability of Brandon Haywood to get in the box and put up points or is this a position that is focused solely on rebounds and ability to get open for the quick dump and an easy bucket?

THE "BENCH" FACTOR:

When I review the two benches, it appears to me that the Celtics, although experience-wise might be a little behind, definitely should outperform the Wizards bench, based on talent alone. Tony Allen, Eddie House, Glen "Baby" Davis, and Scott Pollard should be able to stabilize the game during the times in which the trio need to breathe. The Wizards have a young and savvy bunch as well, but skill for skill, the Celtics win the bench wars.

THE "PREDICTION":

I believe that the Celtics ultimately win this game, not so much because of the big three because they can and will, at times, be stabilized by the Wizards' own three, but because of a few key factors.

One. The "Home Court" advantage will play a huge part, mostly because the Celtics' fans are rabbid for a "real team" and will packed in the Gahhden like sahhdines."

Two. The "Pass Factor" is overwhelming when you compare cumulative assists per game, having Rondo, Allen, and Garnett focused on the open man while the Wizards are a sort of "shoot first, look for the pass second" type of team and will ultimately affect the outcome of the game.

Three. Contrary to popular belief of three stars and only one ball, the historical data of these three are that they are on fairly good teams who have had to use the pass to stay effective AND they have all been on "close but no cigar" teams, when discussing NBA Championships and are ready to take a page out of the New England Patriots book (it worked for the Red Sox, didn't it?)

The game will be at 8:00 pm EDT on ESPN. Don't miss it!!!!

There you have it... my first article about the NBA and of course it's about my C's.

Statistocrat

Week 9 ~ Sit'em

2007-11-01T09:15:00.000-04:00

This week brings a mixed bag of studs and back-ups that you should consider riding the pine (granted you have someone to fill their shoes).

With the Bears, Dolphins, Giants, and Rams on a bye week, there are a few offensive and defensive players that hit you in mouth, especially as we grow nearer and nearer to the "point of no return" when considering playoff potential for your fantasy team.

I, myself, have spent time torn between those who are fantasy studs and those who have good match-ups. I can only hope that this insight, as well as what I have offered all season, helps.

QUARTERBACKS:

John Kitna: Unfortunately for Kitna and his owners, this is not a week to start him. Kitna, concussions and all, face the Denver secondary... who leads the league, or at least in the top five, in almost every statistical category. Jon has several options to go to but the question is going to be answered whether to start him based on whether or not you think they can establish a run game.

Sage Rosenfels: He is slated to start over Matt Schaub and his case of "Carr's syndrome" (where you are pummeled weekly for a lack of offensive line). He has a cannon for an arm and speedy WRs, but like Kitna, faces a tough secondary, the Oakland Raiders. I don't anticipate good numbers from Sage.

Jeff Garcia: Jeff may throw his first pick of the season this week as he has to force balls to Hilliard and Galloway. He faces an underrated secondary in the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards have shown that they are weak upfront, but tough when going mid to deep. I anticipate a lot more out of the backfield than usual.

Derek Anderson: "Earth to Derek...Earth to Derek...it's time to come home". Derek Anderson and the high flying Melendez act of the Cleveland Brown's will likely come to a scretching halt as they square off against the Seattle Seahawks. The Hawks have simply been one of the most dominant defenses in the NFL. They don't have the "W"s to show it because of the lack of consistancy on the offense, but they are TOUGH.

Drew Brees: Sorry Brees owners but it is likely to be another disappointing week. Drew plays host to one of the hardest hitting defenses in the league. The loss of Mike Stroud may limit the ability of the Jags defense up front, leading to frequent Reggie Bush sightings, but the Jags will still punish you if you try to go more than 8 yards a pop.

RUNNING BACKS:

DeShaun Foster: He is a second half guy so picking him up of the waiver wire is a must, but I advise against starting him this week. Carolina is best on the road, but that doesn't phase the Tennessee Titans' Terribly Tenacious Defense (couldn't help it with the illiteration, it just came to me). Keith Bullock and the boys have shown that they know how to keep themselves in the game.

Willis McGahee: Baltimore faces the Steelers, in Pittsburgh, and open to punishing blows. Pittsburgh's 4-3 defense is the real McCoy. With the PIT D/ST ranking in the top 3 in both passing and rushing defense, I can't see McGahee doing to much here. If you can, go with a solid back-up like Earnest Graham or A. Echemandu.

Adrian Peterson: Here is another call to come back to Earth. Adrian is good...REAL GOOD. So good in fact that I took him with my first pick in my 3 player keeper league, but that doesn't mean he is going to stud-out every week. MIN faces one of the toughest front sevens in the NFL, the San Diego Chargers.

Maurice Jones-Drew: Here is a player that appears to be in the process of breaking out of a slump... but he is also fighting off an injury and facing a defense that typical stinks (NO), but has very good ability at stopping the run. Can't see him doing too, too much here.

Jamal Lewis: The boot is off, but that was the physical boot... now he faces a new "boot", the one that will be planted in his behind. Seattle is no joke when it comes to stopping the run, which will be easy as Jamal has an average yardage of less than 4. Don't play any Cleveland running back, come to think of it.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Larry Fitzgerald: I hate putting him here, but with Bolding back, Warner likely at the helm, and Tampa Bay ready to pummel wide recievers (6th best pass defense & 3rd best passing touchdowns). Larry will have an average day with approximately 8 catches for under 80 yards.

Andre Davis: Sorry Texans fans, but if anything, Walter sees more touches than Davis. Oakland is getting it's "secondary legs" back and this means a tough day for Sage and his WR corp. This will be a run first, run second, pass if necessary day, whether ahead or behind.

Roy Williams: He is good, very good. He has a great, young wide receiver lining up across from him, but the secondary lining up on the other side of the ball is great, really great. Denver is a tough secondary to take advantage of. They have had some weak moments in the past few weeks, but that may be all but done. Champ Bailey is nursing some injuries, but even at 80% is still better than 95% of the cornerbacks in the league. Hopefully John Lynch's neck isn't serious and Champ plays, or I will look foolish with this pick.

Joey Galloway: Can you say 6o yards, no TDs? I see this being a game of 'Zona passing and TB playing run and catch out of the backfield a lot. Garcia is best for short yardage gains and Galloway has used his speed to get by defenders. This won't be the case this Sunday as Arizona has speed like no other in the secondary.

Brylon Edwards: Sorry Cleveland fans, but Edwards will be a mere human come the final click on the clock. Seattle is just THAT GOOD. He may see 85+ yards, but I just don't see him being someone to start unless you have no other choice... There are a lot of fantasy WRs that have far better match-ups.

Marques Colston: No 3 TDs, not even 100 YDs... Colston was awesome last year because he came out of the TE... maybe with Patten now playing and Henderson and Cooper running routes cleaner, they can do more of the split options they had for him last year, but until Sean Peyton fixes his offensive outlook, Marques is average. (Watch Peyton listen to me and make me look like a Dunderhead!0

TIGHT ENDS:

Kellen Winslow: Like all the other Browns, I recommend you give Kellen a seat, if you can. There are some really average TEs that could have extraordinary days... and like Kellen, there are some top TEs that have some poor match-ups.

Todd Heap: They haven't said if he will definitely play, but even if he does, he faces the Pittsburgh D/ST. Do I need to continue with this? I don't think so.

Vernon Davis: Atlanta can't do much, but what they can do is continue to grow in their ability to defend the pass. Smith is still working back into the speed of the NFL, and testing the limits of his shoulder injury. The Falcons won't win much, but they will stop Davis from having his way with their defense.

Chris Baker: Although back in the swing of things, it isn't like he is going to overwhelm the angry and irate 'Skins defense. The 'Skins will take out their butt whooping from last week on the Jets offense. Now, with Coles listed as questionable, Baker would be more relied upon, if only they had an offense which could produce yardage. Clemens will be eaten alive and the rest of the Jets with them.

This is all my opinion, but I think that I considered a lot of data to determine these players as candidates to sit and watch this week. Only time will tell if I am accurate or not.

Statistocrat

Supaah Bowl...In Novembahhh!!!!

2007-11-01T08:30:00.000-04:00

[ Super Bowl MVPs Manning and Brady face each other in Week 9.]

I don't care who you are, which conference you pull for, or which team your allegiance is sworn to... this IS your 2007 Super Bowl.

Not only is this the best rivalry in football, it's the biggest meeting of these two teams in their history. Yes, I realize they have met umpteen times for divisional championships, but none has had a bigger magnetic pull then the 4:15 pm game in Indianapolis this weekend. Never before in NFL history has two teams with records 7-0 teams (or better) met to play in a regular season game.

This is a battle of the reigning Super Bowl Champs and a team on pace for NFL history...How does it get better than this!!!

Let's face it, when discussing the two quarterbacks, you can't mention one quarterback without mentioning the other (or at least think of the other). Each are champions of the gridiron, demonstrating an uncanny ability to read defenses, call audibles, and utilize the staff and the system provided to them.

What makes this game so incredible is the uncanny similarities in the two teams. It has never been a closer match-up. Let me explain...

The Offense:

Peyton Manning has Marvin Harrison (Dungy says he will practice Thursday and play Sunday), Reggie Wayne, and Anthony Gonzalez at WR;
Tom Brady has Randy "M-awesome", Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker.

Manning has an unbelievable TE in Dallas Clark;
Brady with Ben Watson (practicing and expected to play).

Indianapolis has a 2006, 1st round running back in Joseph Addai;
New England also has a 2006, 1st round running back in Laurence Maroney.

The Defense:

Both have Pro-Bowl Defensive ends (IND~Dwight Freeney; NE~Richard Seymour).
They both have hard-hitting, roving Safeties (IND~Bob Sanders; NE~Rodney Harrison).
Both teams are tied with a turnover ratio of +11.
Each team can be susceptible to the run but can make a QB's day absolutely miserable.

Both have kickers who can get the job done...

Adam Vinatieri is 14 of 15 (93.3%) with a long of 39 yards
Stephen Gostkowski is 10 of 11 (90.9%) with a long of 45 yards

The Colts have an average of 18.1 yards per punt return.
The Pats have an average of 5.5 yards per punt return.

The Colts have an average of 24.7 yards per kick return (1 TD)
The Pats have an average of 22.6 yards per kick return (2 TD)

INDY averages 44.9 yards per punt.
NE averages 46.0 yards per punt.

When I review the teams and their history, it isn't the offense weapons, the defensive prowess, the special teams play, or even the "Home Field Advantage" that separates the two teams...

The difference is... are you ready for this?

THE OFFENSIVE LINE.

The reason I am selecting the Patriots to win this coming Sunday is because of the comparison of the offensive lines...

The Patriots offensive line has shown week in and week out that they are not only the most "in tune" with each other of any line in the NFL, but their depth and ability to switch positions is something that isn't seen in any line in the past. Simply put, these guys know each other better than most of their families do, predicting decisions and sacrificing for each other and the team.

The o-line is the ultimate reason I am selecting the Patriots to win.

Sure, Mathis and Freeney will get there shots, but the biggest difference is the health of the two lines...Patriots at full strength and the Colts without Tony Ugoh at clearly the most important position on the offensive line.

Another thing to consider are the injuries sustained by the Colts.. They have listed starting Left Tackle Tony Ugoh as questionable with a shoulder injury, starting CB Marlon Jackson is listed as day-to-day with a neck injury, and WR Marvin Harrison is still nursing a knee injury. (AND no "Booger" McFarland for the season, to boot).

This will not be a ridiculous game, point-wise, but I believe that we will see something like 52 - 60 points total (each defense averages around 15 p.p.g., which means that even doubling them brings it to 6o tops).

My pick: Patriots win 30 - 27.

Statistocrat

Week 9 ~ Start'em

2007-10-31T08:00:00.000-04:00

Due to the lack of key fantasy players on bye-week and the majority of injuries being recovered and on the field (although a few remain), it is time to focus on teams that are facing key match-ups to determine who best to play this week.

In this week's Start'em, I will focus on big names who should have big games... helping you to decide who amongst your studs you should play.

QUARTERBACKS:

Matt Hasselbeck: Here is a guy that has been consistent for years and is going to run into some fantasy points as the Seattle Seahawks prepare to face a defense that ranks 28th in receiving and 26th in rushing. This means big opportunities for Alexander to break out and Hasselbeck some opportunity to put up TDs.

Jason Campbell: Jason should shine like the sun this week as he has it even better than Hasselbeck. Campbell and the 'Skins go to New Jersey and face the 31st ranked defense in the passing game and the 30th ranked run defense. The Jets are in a constant state of chaos, from the starting quarterback (now Kellen Clemens) to the defensive starters (started the most players in defense so far this year.

Carson Palmer: Not only is he on the verge of getting his no. 3 WR back in Chris Henry, but it is safe to say that the "milking" of Rudi Johnson's knee injury is nearing an end. Palmer faces a defense that has a lot of turnovers but gives up the 3rd most yards per reception in the league. With C.J. & T.J., this means trouble for Buffalo fans and rejoicing for Palmer owners.

Jay Cutler: They are slowly coming out of a funk, mostly due to Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler. Cutler will have plenty of opportunities with the pick-happy, yet abysmal defense of the Detroit Lions (ranked 29th overall in receiving yards).

J.P. Losman: He gets his job back, as I suspected he would ( Week 9 ~ Waiver Wire). It couldn't have come at a better time for Losman and the Bills. They face a defense that ranks 26th in receiving yards given up and 25th in rushing yards. This means Lynch can move the ball and give Losman the time to deliver the pass, all the while remaining balanced to keep the defense honest. They will likely play from behind, meaning more passing than rushing attempts.

RUNNING BACKS:

Kevin Jones: He is looking more and more like the Kevin Jones of two years ago... cutting and slashing his way through defenses, even without an offensive line to speak of. Detroit faces a tough pass defense, but Denver ranks 31st in rushing yardage allowed. This gives owners a chance to look good... at least those who drafted him or picked him up early.

Adimchinobe Echemandu: Huh? How do you say it? This week, you can just say "TD Eche" because Houston faces the 29th ranked team in rushing yards allowed. Like Denver, they are staunch defenders of the pass but porous in the front seven.

Shaun Alexander: Here is a chance to redeem yourself for picking him in the top 5. Seattle rolls into Cleveland with an axe to grind, a full arsenal of receivers and a defense that simply cannot stop the run (ranked 28th overall). The defense of the Browns also gives up a ton of receiving yardage which will open up opportunities for Alexander to look good, fantasy-wise.

Marshawn Lynch: The Buffalo offense should look stout this weekend with Cincinnati unable to get out of their own way, most of the time. Lynch has grown in his position and with Losman at the helm and the Bengals looking more like the "Bungles", it is Lynch's day to shine.

Rudi Johnson: I put him in here, more for hope than anything... I need him to play. I think that all reports indicate he is in, but they are so sketchy... isn't this how Dillon basically lost his role. I expect him to carry the ball at least 20 times, say... 80 YDs and a TD against a poor Buffalo Defense.

Justin Fargas: This week, the "right" Fargas shows up. Oakland faces the 24th ranked rushing defense (and passing for that matter) when they host the Houston Texans. Fargas had nearly 100 all-purpose yards last week and should have a great showing this Sunday.

Joseph Addai: When will he NOT get his? Addai will have a good day, regardless of the fact that he is up against one of the best defensive teams in the game. I expect him to tag 100+ on the Pats and maybe 2 TDs, one in the air, one on the ground.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Laveranues Coles: I am a Cotchery fan but think that Coles wins out this weekend as Clemens will rely on him to be the go to guy as they face the Washington Redskins. The 'Skins are hotter than hell after being flambasted by the Patriots. All things considered though, the Patriots did more than shalack them, they exposed them. Expect Coles to have a great day.

Deion Branch: Back from injury and ready to regain his position as Matt's go-to-guy. They didn't give up a first round draft pick for nothing. Cleveland has holes all over the defense and that is Deion's specialty. I realize that Engram, Burleson, and Hackett are avaiable, but that is exactly why the defense can no longer silence him.

Brandon Marshall: Expect Marshall to have a stellar game as he faces Detroit Lions and their lack of aptitude on the defensive side of the ball. Sure they have a ton of picks...because they are so bad, offenses can simply throw 40 times, get 2 picks and still beat them. They have gotten better in the past three weeks, but not good enough that Denver won't man-handle them.

Vincent Jackson: Is now a threat. With Chambers on the opposite side and Gates roaring up the middle, it is time for VJax "to get his". Chambers will be the short/mid-range guy and Jackson will see 6 - 8 attempts, but should net 80+ YDs and a TD.

Lee Evans: He's back. For all of you that dropped him...two things... shame on you! and thank you. I can't tell you how many leagues I was able to pick this guy up about two weeks ago. He will have matching or better stats than last week, especially since he is facing the Bengals defense.

David Patten: I have been talking about him for three weeks now. He is the best deep threat that Brees has. He is opening opportunities for everyone, including a disappointing first half by Marques Colston. Expect David to have another good day as they face tough Jags defense.

Hines Ward: I was wrong last week to stay away from him... I thought he needed at least one more week... I was dead wrong. He is facing a Baltimore defense that is suspect in it's secondary. He should be able to net more yards but one less TD than last week.

Santana Moss: He earns some points for you this week against the lowly J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS JETS!!!! The Jets rank 30th in run-defense, 31st in pass defense. Jason will rely on Moss, Cooley, and Portis to bring home a win and erase the Patriots from their recent memories.

Reggie Williams: Quinn Gray has to throw to someone and Reggie usually gets the call. Jacksonville has a chance to open the run game with a solid passing performance against the 26th ranked pass defense. I mean...someone has to get the ball thrown to him, right?

TIGHT ENDS:

Antonio Gates: Is this obvious, "Yes"! But the truth is, he should outperform any previous week this year as San Diego plays host to the 24th ranked defense against the pass. The Saints are 3rd in giving up the most yards per pass... this HAS to fair well for Gates.

Tony Scheffler: He is starting to live up to the draft day expectations. Scheffler is having more and more of a role in the offense due to the loss of Javon Walker. He should continue to fair well for the second half and is much a great waiver wire pick-up as he is a starter. Look for Culter to use Scheffler against a weak DET secondary.

Heath Miller: Like the Miller of two years ago, Big Ben is relying more on Heath to get the job done in the red zone. Baltimore has shown a weakness in the secondary, which means the linebackers need to play deeper to keep the game close. Look for Heath and Big Ben, directed by Mike Tomlin to use this to their advantage.

I realize it's a break from the norm, this week's Start'em, but a this point, with only a few key players out for bye weeks and injuries, it made since to go with a more traditional approach to Start'em.

May your roster be healthy and the points many.

Statistocrat

Teams are QB "Broke", why not look to "Brooks"?

2007-10-30T19:30:00.000-04:00

Where oh where has Aaron Brooks gone? Oh where oh where can he be?

I bet he is sitting on his coach watching the state of the quarterbacks in the NFL and wondering “What the hell am I doing on the coach with no phone calls and these fools are getting paid to do what I do best!!!”

With Vinny Testaverde coming off the coach and into your living room on Sundays and Jeff George advising NFL teams that he wants in, why on God’s green earth isn’t there any talk about this kid?

Aaron played for 8 seasons, amassing 123 TDs and 92 INTs. He had over 20,000 Yds with a career 78.5 passer rating. Are you telling me that this guy shouldn’t be on several team’s radars.

If you ask me, the Minnesota Vikings, the New York Jets, the Arizona Cardinals, and the Miami Dolphins should be picking up the phone and dialing right….about….NOW!!!!!

Statistocrat

Week 9 ~ Waiver Wire

2007-10-30T14:00:00.001-04:00

Here is my outlook on the free agent market as the majority of league's waiver wire is due within 24 hours.

Although there are slim pickin's, that doesn't mean that they aren't worthy candidates.

Look to this group of players to help fill injury and bye-week fillers.

QUARTERBACK:

Alex Smith: With injury all but behind him, Alex looks to regain some momentum and drive San Fransisco to a late run at the playoffs. I expect that his re-emergence lends growth to Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and Darrell Jackson.

Kellen Clemens: If for no other reason, because he has Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery as targets, but also because he has the ability to go down field in a way that Pennington's arm wouldn't allow them.

J.P. Losman: So many people dropped him, but Edwards has shown a completel lack of ability to be a consistent winner. I expect Losman back in the line-up before the week ends. He filled in nicely at the end of the Jets game, ultimately leading them to victory.

Brooks Bollinger: If you are in a two quarterback league or there is nothing left and you had Schaub, Delhomme, or maybe even rested on Trent Green... Maybe with the abysmal outlook of the QB situation in the NFL, be it Leinart or Culpepper, Harrington or Chad Pennington, Brooks could be a nice find. He is careful with the ball but has the ability to heave it downfield.

RUNNINGBACKS:

Chris Henry: This rookie has seen the endzone twice in two weeks. He is slowly securing his job as the back-up to LenDale White even when Chris Brown returns from injury. He is a must-hold-on-to if you are in a keeper league.

DeShaun Foster: A yearly, second-half-guy. He had 6 straight games at the end of the season in which he ran for over 100 yards and a TD and I don't expect less, even with Vinny "The Ancient" at the helm.

Kevin Faulk: With Sammy Morris on the sidelines, Kevin is a great filler for bye-weeks and injuries. He should see somewhere between 50 - 75 yards based on how Belicheck uses his running backs. He has the chance to get the most yards in the air as Brady loves to throw screens to Kevin.

Michael Bennett: He got in the end zone last weekend and I expect his role to ever increase as they use Graham more an more to field punts/kick returns. Both are effective on the ground and through the air, but I believe that Bennett has the most upside.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Chris Henry: The team needs this third receiver almost as much as they need Rudi Johnson back. He is able to practice with the team and should be able to make a run for some points as early as next week. Be a genius and grab' em before anybody else does.

Derrick Mason: Flying under the radar or being dropped for lack of consistency, Derrick Mason is quietly posting 7 - 10 fantasy points a week. If someone was gullible enough to drop 'em, go ahead and grab him. He is not going to be huge, but as a third receiver, he is dependable.

Marty Booker: Besides the spry Nick Hagan, Marty Booker is one of the only one's remaining of the starting offensive roster for the Dolphins. Cleo Lemon relies on Booker to help him in his times of need, and fantasy-wise, maybe you should to.

Reggie Brown: Like all other Eagles WR, it's hit or miss, but this past weekend, he looked dynamic. Maybe between Curtis and Brown, Westbrook and L.J. Smith, we see an offense re-emerge and give McNabb a reason to stop whining and start winning.

Bobby Wade: He is the veteran in this threesome (Williamson, Wade, and Rice). Whether it is Bollinger or whomever, I see Wade starting to play a more important role in this offense, being consistent in the short to mid-range passes.

Deion Branch/D.J. Hackett: Both are back from injury and I expect them both to be used to try and right this Seahawks ship. Branch is the better of the two, but Hackett has speed that cannot be matched. Nate Burleson and Bobby Engram will limit their opportunities, but great pick-ups for the rest of the season.

TIGHT ENDS:

Jeff King: This team is banged up and the player who has been the most consistent, win or loss, is the tight end King. This is unheralded, as the Panthers are known for run-blockers, not receivers in the TE spot. King is consistent enough to plug in over McMichael's, Eric Johnson, or even someone like Bo Scaife and to date, Todd Heap...

Tony Scheffler: As Cutler grows in his position, it is apparent that Scheffler, not Graham, is going to be the receiver of the group. With Rod Smith all but withered away, Javon is gimpy as usual, the beat-up offense of Mike Shanahan is relying on Brandon Marshall, Brandon Stokley, and Tony Scheffler to keep the ball moving.

These are my candidates for who is likely there and who will likely be taken if you don't act fast.

Good luck and happy hunting...

Statistocrat

"East Coast in the West"

2007-10-30T14:00:00.000-04:00

With the news of Joe Torre likely headed to Los Angeles, it brings up a great story about the Dodgers.

Frank McCourt tried to buy the Red Sox. After that didn’t work, he bought the Dodgers. Since then, he has gone out of his way to recruit any and all Red Sox players to add to his rosters (The Red Sox 2). Players like Nomar Garciaparra, Bill Mueller, Derek Lowe, Rudy Seanez, David Wells, have all been moved from the East Coast Sox to the West Coast Sox ( Dodgers.) Even manager Grady Little was a Red Sox annex.

Now, with the Red Sox pools depleted, he turns to the Yankees. The news around the league is that there is little to discuss in the departure of Grady and the insertion of now Ex-Manager of the Yankees, Joe Torre. I can only believe that A-Rod, at the very least, is next. I could see Johnny Damon and Doug Meintkiewicz in a Dodgers uniform next year. There are also some pitchers available too. Maybe Frank "McCourts" players like Carl Pavano, Kyle Farnsworth, Ron Villone, and Jason Giambi.

The Dodgers are deep in the outfield, but with Melky Cabrera, Shelley Duncan, Bobby Abreau, and Hideki Matsui in the outfield all ready for the Yankees, the infamous Johnny Damon is now expendable.

The Yankees can use Duncan at first as well as either Andy Phillips or even Jorge Posada, if they get the right freeagent catcher in the off season (or Jose Molina can get the job done), which would make Giambi a wholesale purchase. This is less likely he ends up in a Dodger’s uniform with James Loney stepping it up this year, but you never know.

Here are the likely departures of the Yankees:

1B – Jason Giambi
1B – Doug Meintkiewicz
3B – Alex Rodriguez
RP – Kyle Farnsworth
SP/RP – Ron Villone
SP – Carl Pavano
SP – Andy Pettitte
SP – Roger Clemens

The Dodgers (Sox 2) are fairly healthy, and will see a starting line-up along the lines of…

C – Russell Martin
1B – James Loney
2B – Jeff Kent (Tony Abreu)
3B – Nomar Garciaparra (Andy Laroche)
SS – Rafael Furcal
LF – Luis Gonzalez (Matt Kemp)
CF – Juan Pierre (Matt Kemp)
RF – Andre Either (Matt Kemp)

They will be loaded on starting pitching with…

SP – Brad Penny
SP – Derek Lowe
SP – Jason Schmidt
SP – Chad Billingsley
SP – Randy Wolf
SP – Esteban Loaiza

And an excellent bullpen that consists of…

CL – Takashi Saito
SU – Jonathan Broxton
RP – Scott Proctor
RP – Mark Hendrickson

And many, many more… With Torre at the helm, will the Dodgers be in line for a World Series visit? Only time will tell…

The real question is… Will McCourt continue to pilfer from the American League East Free Agent Pool?

And if Torre does become a Dodger, will some of these NYY cast-offs come’a runnin’?

Statistocrat

"What About Me....I'm A-Rod!"

2007-10-30T13:39:00.001-04:00

If there was anyone out there who questioned Alex Rodriguez and his me first mentality, you should now have more that enough proof. He had it leaked that he was opting out of his New York Yankees, hereafter know as "The Dark Side", right in the middle of game 4 of the World Series. I have seen a lot of selfish acts in my day, but this one takes the cake. So I have decided to write a letter to my dear Alex....

Dear Mr. Rodriguez,

I understand that you are a big star and that this is big news. But your "Love and Respect" for the game that has made you such a big star seems to be lacking. A-Rod, this is the biggest stage in baseball. That is....for the people who are playing. We should be talking about Papelbon slamming the door, Ellsbury and his remarkable hitting, Lowell getting the MVP, Manny kicking his helmet, the Red Sox going from despair to potential dynasty, Francona and his status among coaches in the league.....The list is endless. No wait, actually it isn't. It should end with the teams that are involved. For you to give you hired gun the permission to release that information at a time like that is disgusting.

Any excuse that you are getting ready to formulate, please forget. There is none. If you had made up your mind earlier that day, you should have had the courtesy to wait until the American League East and now World Series champion Boston Red Sox had their exclusive time in the sun. If you just made up you mind about 2 minute before we heard about it, why would you even call someone and let them know. No wait....I know. It is because you believe you are bigger and more important that the game itself. Just like the rest of the team you are leaving (The Dark Side) you don't get it. It is not all about the individual. You were a locker room full of individuals. Hope you all had fun watching the World Series.

I was able to sit and watch my favorite team pull off their second World Series in the past 4 years. The fact that you somehow snuck in, did not make the victory any less sweet. Anyway, good luck getting your $30,000,000.00 per year contract. You may want to put some of that aside for some Baseball History tapes and an etiquette class.

Sincerely,

Leroy the Fish

Forecast for Jacksonville......GRAY!!!!

2007-10-24T08:00:00.000-04:00

Forecast for Jacksonville.....GRAY!

It appears that the Jaguars have sprained their collective ankle. Garrard went down hard against the Colts on Monday night. Pending an MRI he is out of the starting lineup. Jack Del Rio states that he will likely miss at least one start. That puts the perverbial deer right in the headlights. Quinn Gray, who lead his team to a the championship has the chance to do it again. Unfortunatey for the Jags that team was the Frankfurt Galaxy in the 2003 World Bowl.

When he got his chance against the Colts he racked up a QB rating of 11.1, with 2 interceptions. One of which, if you look close, you can see Bob Sanders wave for a fair catch. This week he will get a chance against a Tampa Bay defense which isn't what we have come to expect from a defense in Tampa, but still isn't bad. Besides the debaucle in Detroit, and the beating at the hands of the Colts.....hhmmm sound familiar.....the Bucs D has held every opponent to 20 points or less.

FANTASY IMPACT: The Jags running game is going to have to carry them to victory. However they will have to count on Gray to drop back and throw the ball. Something he has only done 60 times for the Jags. Those 60 dropbacks have resulted in two lost fumbles and two interceptions.

So sit back, relax, and watch Jack Del Rio sweat through another suit as he watches Just Another Guy (JAG) lead his team into Tampa.

Sincerely,

Leroy the Fish

Digging the Free Agent for a RB?

2007-10-23T08:00:00.000-04:00

So your running backs have a bye week. You are so far ahead in you league and you want to show everyone just how much of a guru you are. Or maybe you are so far out of your league and you need to grasp at straws to try and regain some status.

Well have I got a straw for you.....Jerome Harrison.

He only has a handful of carries and is playing third string on the Browns. So that doesn't make you drool. How about this....Jamal Lewis is questionable and since they are playing the Rams I don't see the real need for them to rush him back to the lineup. Second string is the perennial hall of famer Jason Wright. He is a lifetime practice squad soldier.

FANTASY IMPACT: Seems like a good time to bring in the 145th pick in the 2006 draft. He is undersized with decent speed. Just google the footage of how fast he ran away from Washington State. With Lewis in a boot and Wright only showing flashes, Jerome may very get his chance to show why he was drafted in the first place. Remember, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, and even RB Terrel Davis were all picked beyond round 5. Heck, WR Jerry Rice was a blip on the map, taken after Round 9 and WR Rod Smith wasn't drafted!!!

Don't get me wrong, if you are in the thick of your league and can't afford to take a chance, stop reading now. However if you are in it for some fun, remember....this is supposed to be fun, take a chance on Jerome Harrison. You will either look like a genius, or you can blame it on some know nothing. So go a head....live dangerously. But only if Jamal Lewis is in street clothes on Sunday. If he puts the pads on, please disregard everything you just read.

Sincerely,

Leroy the Fish

Note from the editor: Leroy is one of two new "addicts" that have joined the FFA team. As the blog progresses and the real website is being built, look for "The Fish" to make frequent stops on FFA to get HIS fantasy and sports fix.

Week 8 ~ Waiver Wire

2007-10-23T07:00:00.000-04:00

The sub-title of this article should be "slim-pickin's and re-runs". As the season progresses, it is becoming more and more of a bench player for bench players.

Here is my "not so indepth" review of those that may be available on your waiver wire...

QUARTERBACKS:

Sage Rosenfels: It looks like Schaub may hit the pine for a week or so, primarily due to his hip injury.... You just can't "plant and throw" without both ya' hips...don't ya' know? Although he is "pick-prone", he has an absolute cannon for an arm. He has speedy receivers in Kevin Walter's and Andre Davis and had shown it this past Sunday. If you are in a 2 deep QB league or simply need someone to pick-up a bye week, he is your man. If you are a die-hard Texan fan and had Schaub as your starter, the question is... why don't you have him all ready?

Brian Griese: The hottest commodity on the Free Agent QB market. Guess what ladies and gentlemen, the Bears have a quarterback. This also improves anyone that wants to gain receptions, as most are on the list. Unfortunately, it does nothing for disappointing Cedric Benson (but only disappointing if you thought he was going to have better than a mediocre year.)

Quinn Grey: No, he isn't a fantasy savior, nor even the savior of the Jags (shown last night). But the bottom-line is this... they have a ton of talent to spread the ball around, especially when you consider that each of the Jags RB has great hands and loves to get it in the flats with room to roam. He had a shaky start, but who wouldn't, coming in the middle of the game (save Brady and Romo).

RUNNING BACKS:

Jesse Chatman: The second hottest player on the free agent market. He looked sharp against NE considering he is facing the number 2 running defense in the nation right now. With Brown gone for the season, it is open game for Jesse to show that the preseason wasn't just...THE PRESEASON.. and that he has something to provide, even considering the state of the offense.

Earnest Graham: "Earnest"ly earning a pay check this week, Graham also had a monster week with 191 total yards. He is slowly coming into his own with every touch. Cadillic better hope that Graham slows down or he will find himself either second string or out of TB uniform by next season. I have seen him dropped in many leagues that I am in because of the arrival of Michael Bennett as well as the recent drop in yardage over the past two weeks.

LenDale White: My, my, my... look who is turning into Mr. Consistent with a pocket-passing QB. LenDale is finally getting his tubby butt enough yardage that when Chris Brown returns, he might return to little or no playing time. They didn't draft him in the first round to keep Chris Brown.... Brown was just available and they, like all teams, needed depth.

Jamey Wright: It does not appear that Jamal Lewis is ready and Wright, in his stead, has done a fairly competent job. I anticipate that he will be a good fill-in while Jamal is out and especially if you are dealing with other injuries (Ronnie Brown), under-performances (Frank Gore) or bye-weeks (Alexander, L.J.).

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Roydell Williams: He was starting to come along strong for Young and has absolutely skyrocketed with Collins at the helm. He is lightening fast and capitalizing on the loss of Brandon Jones and Vince Young. For the next couple of weeks, he is the man of TEN. I believe that Young will see enough from the sidelines to start to depend more on Williams, who has shown flashes of brilliance all season.

Roddy White: Another WR who has been picked up and dropped too many times. He has enough of a consistency to rival Curry & Porter...at least enough to put in when the match-up is right. The problem lies in who is throwing to him. He is the go-to-guy in Atlanta and should be considered as a low end third WR on any given week.

Muhsin Muhammad: He has a bigger week each and every week that Griese is on the field. He may be riding many benches, but he is still only owned in 64% of leagues (according to CBS Sportsline). Here is a chance to steal him and add him to your list of potential starters, especially if the match-up is good.

Nick Hagan: In deeper leagues, he may prove fruitful as he replaces Chris Chambers on the Miami offense. Although Booker will see more touches, he seems to be taken in these larger leagues. Cam Cameron traded away Chambers because he was ready to make Hagan the full-time No. 2 WR on the team. With Cleo Lemon at the helm and Chatman gradually working into the RB role, it is a great time to be a Miami defender.

Kevin Walters: Here is another speedy white-boy that is seeing his stock rising in fantasy leagues all over the nation. Even with Sage playing QB, he is a great find. I recommend grabbing him if you can as he has been phenomenal, fantasy-wise, for the better part of three weeks.

TIGHT ENDS:

David Martin: You need to see how his "foot" injury is, but he has slowly been creeping up the points chart, almost unnoticed. Where Lemon is a more fleet-footed, there will be more roll-outs and better opportunity for a sure-handed TE.

Vernon Davis: It may just be time to insert him back in your line-up. With Alex Smith on the rebound, this team will start to make a name for themselves offensively and Davis should finally have the impact that we have all been expecting.

Jerramy Stevens: With the other Alex Smith down with an injury, Stevens saw 6 receptions last Sunday and should see more as Garcia is a known abuser of his TE. Garcia is a west coast quarterback which means he relies solely on the short passing game. Stevens has been a "butterfinger" spokesman his whole career, but that won't stop Garcia from counting on him... especially with Graham emerging as a catching receiver out in the flats.

This may be a day late and a dollar short, but sometimes your "life schedule" gets in the way of what you love to do most... for me, that is fantasy sports and my ego to believe I know more than most.

Happy Hunting,

Statistocrat

Byron "Leftwich" No Excuses

2007-10-22T15:00:00.000-04:00

Just when Byron thought it couldn't get much worse than going down again for the third time in three seasons to a lower leg injury, he found that it was just beginning.

After spending hours in the training room, tending to his oft-injured lower right leg, the left front leg of the training table he was on snapped off, sending Byron sprawling to the floor amidst a flurry of ice and gauze that liked like a Nor'easter.

He was able to recover, barely standing on his injured leg when the left side chain of the flourescent light ficture snapped, swinging down and slamming Leftwich down to the ground for the third sack of the game (the officials only gave the light an assisted sack as the table received the other half of the credit).

Byron was quoted as saying "It just wasn't my day, the defense seem to be one step ahead of me the whole day, right up to and including the light that blinded him from the weak side. Alge Crumpler was nursing his injury in the table next to him and said "I tried to block it from him, but I slipped on the spilt' ice and it got by me before I could even plant my feet."

We received a call late last night from local law enforcement informing us that it wasn't the end of his troubles as he received a flat tire on the freeway.

"Boy, some people just don't know when to quit trying".

by Statistocrat

"Stop The Insanity!!!!"

2007-10-22T00:36:00.000-04:00

What on God's green earth are people talking about when they start discussing 16 - 0?

Why? Would people start talking about 16 - 0? I will tell you why... because you are all insane and living on island absurdity!!!

Look... I am a die-hard Pats fan and will pull for them whether they are 1 - 15 (as they HAVE been in my lifetime) or 15 - 1, but to think that anyone in this day and age can go 16 - 0 is simply ludicrous.

Here are the games that basically show that it is darn near implausible that they go 16 - 0.

Sunday 10/28/07 vs. Washington (4-2)

Sunday 11/04/07 @ Indianapolis (5-0)

Monday 12/04/07 @ Ravens (4 - 3)

Sunday 12/09/07 vs. Steelers (4-2)

Saturday 29/07 @ Giants (5-2)

Am I saying that they can't beat any of these teams? NO... But... What I am saying is that anything can happen between now and then (injuries, suspensions, and God know's what) that could lead to this team having the potential to lose these games.

I wish that I could stop hearing about the potential for this to occur, predicting the end or even worse, building it up to something other than what it is when/if they do in fact lose. It was introduced by some guy who has no ability to live in the real world and then propagated by the media so that there is some way to hide the fact that somehow, with all that talent in the NFL, there are just some flat-out crappy teams.

Listen, I would love for them to continue to run teams into the ground like they were high school teams, but I am nore concerned with winning Super Bowls.

Statistocrat

Week 7 ~ Sit'em

2007-10-20T10:45:00.000-04:00

With Week 7 simply hours away, I want to invest some time looking at the prototypical fantasy starters and why you may consider sitting them for one of your bench players that have a better match-up.

My goal is to make you think about certain scenario's, not to be your ultimate guide to your roster management... otherwise I will hear all kinds of complaints if you rely completely on me... In other words, I don't want to hear that I am the reason that you lost against your fantasy match-up this week.

Here are those that I think you may want to consider riding the pine this week.

QUARTERBACK:

Vince Young: Vince Young limps (hamstring) into Houston this week which is the biggest concern I have when considering roster management. Cortisone is a wonderful thing when you are trying to play through an injury, but it merely takes a way most of the inflammation and in turn the pain... but that doesn't increase the mobility of a quarterback that thrives on it. Houston can have moments of brilliance, especially on the defensive line and a pick here and there. I believe the LenDale White will be the true bright spot, if TEN is to win this week.

Jon Kitna: As much as people would love for me to stop bashing on Kitna, even with the artillery he has at his hands, it is not ultimately Jon Kitna I don't believe in, it's the lack of an offensive line. In all that is holy, how can an NFL offensive line be this bad? The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are slowly turning into one of the top 5 D/ST in the league.

Marc Bulger: Let's face it... Scott Linehan is not doing what he needs to get the job done. Not only that...Tory Holt is not who he should be... not with that bum-knee of his... Leonard is good, but with the same problem as Detroit, the offensive line is their Achilles heal. Bruce has lost a step and Bennett isn't getting the looks that he should. McMichael is McMissing up until this point, too.

Jay Cutler: With the news of Walker heading to the I/R for darn near the rest of the season, it appears that the Denver Broncos are in a sticky situation. They have the defense, just not the offense. Brandon Marshall is the highlight of the offense and Cutler is still too young, experience-wise to be considered a must-start. Until they show me something, he has been permanently added to my Sit'em category.

Matt Schaub: Without a guaranteed RB (Dayne or Gado) and missing WR Andre Johnson (as usual), it is hard to go up against a young defense that capitalizes on turn-overs. Matt has been fairly productive to date, but I think this is the week that you opt for another starter. Owen Daniels, Andre Davis, and Kevin Walter will be no match for the TEN defense lead by Keith Bullock.

RUNNING BACKS:

Travis Henry: As his tenure as the starter for the Denver Brocnos comes to an end, so does his opportunity to put up serious points for your fantasy team... I am not saying that Selvin is the heir apparent, it is just that the offense is a shell of it's former self. Denver faces a ridiculous defense who is out to show that blanking the Seahawks was not a fluke.

Kevin Jones: Two reasons... one, they have no offensive line... two, they are facing the Tamp Bay Defense. Kevin should be growing into his position as the starters... the problem is, there is no way anyone could run with this offensive line. Heck, Barry Sanders couldn't get more than 3 YDs a carry. For that matter, don't start Tatum Bell either.

Ronnie Brown: He is leading most leagues regarding fantasy points. If you said this isn't a shock, you are full of bologna. But... He is facing the NE defense that has obliterated running backs since Week 1. Brown has historically been awful against the Patriots, whether at home or away. There is a high chance that Richard Seymour will see some playing time (unconfirmed, but was due back by Week 6). This is the week to sit Brown down and play someone on your bench.

Edgerrin James: Not that he was doing anything significant in your line-up to date, but with Tim Rattay at the helm and still no sign of Tackle Levi Brown, it appears that he isn't going to do much. Not to mention, Washington is man-handling everyone in their path... Edge will be no exception. AS a matter of fact, I believe that Marcel Shipp will have better stats by the end of the game.

Marion Barber III: No offense, but he hasn't gotten near 100 YDs in three seeks, partly due to the defenses he has faced, but also because Julius Jones has been fairly effective with the touches he has gotten. If they need yardage or they are down, Barber is the man... but Jones has seen more and more touches as the season progresses.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Larry Fitgerald: Look, I have him in a ton of leagues, but with Tim Rattay as the QB, Boldin Back, the o-line hurting, and facing the WAS defense, this looks like the time that you simply let him ride the pine. He may get 80 YDs but I don't expect too much more from him. With that being said, Rattay has a rocket for an arm and my prediction could backfire.

Darrell Jackson: He hasn't lost a step, just a quality offense and a solid WB to be throwing his way. With Gore, Jackson, Davis, and Battle, this offense should be better than it is right now. Alex Smith is on his way back, but that does not have the experience to make this happen... at least not yet. I expect that he will have a better second half but that is only if Vernon Davis does what he needs to do and Alex Smith is healthy.

Hines Ward: He is coming off an injury and facing the top-rated pass-defense in the league. Santonio Holmes is the deep threat and Ward will be used like Spaeth and Miller...as a short yardage, go-to guy. I expect that he will see 65 YDs or less... He will slowly but surely disappoint those who have drafted him.

Tory Holt: It is unfortunate because he is such a quality receiver. Bulger is going to be rusty at best and the offense is becoming less and less explosive and more and more implosive. I have Holt in my keeper league it it pains me to look at his name every time... Holt is equal to "disappointment" this year...joining the Stephen Jacksons, Javon Walkers, and Rudi Johnsons of the world... I expect bare minimums out of Holt, play him if you don't have much else, but sit'em if you have anything remotely close to effective.

Andre Davis: He is talented, but not talented enough to deal with double coverages, especially when their run game is such a big question mark. Owen Daniels and Kevin Walters can be covered by most in the league, giving Tennessee a chance to have a big D/STs week. If I start anyone for Houston at this point, it is either Kevin Walters or Owen Daniels, but even Daniels will be held tight by Bullock and the Boys.

TIGHT END:

Ben Watson: He is injured and there are capable back-ups available in Kyle Brady and David Thomas, not to mention the emergence of Donte Stallworth. It is a bad time to be hurt with Sammy Morris going down and Maroney not at 100 percent. Expect Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans to pick the slack there.

Desmond Clark: Phillie hasn't given up a TD to a TE yet this season and appears to be fully healthy. I think that Olsen gets the looks for receptions as Clark is relied more to block to give Griese time and get Benson out of the backfield to keep this game close.

Dallas Clark: I see this being a close game for Indy...eventually winning, but the hard-hitting and speedy secondary/linebacking corp. of the Jags are going to make it very difficult for Dallas to split out and make something happen. Instead, Anthony Gonzalez wil be the third man for Peyton this week.

That's it for this week, folks.. .hope you have a great fantasy week... to check out my full sunday review of the NFL, including confidence picks (straight up win vs. loss) against the spread picks, game overview and last minute must-starts, go the Screaming Sports.Com where I am a Featured Columnist throughout the week. Check out the featured columnist section on the home page Sunday morning.

I'm out!!!

Statistocrat

Biz Markie a Cowboy?

2007-10-19T15:00:00.000-04:00

So when did Biz Markie start playing football?

C'mon!!! Tell me THESE TWO weren't separated at birth!!!

No seriously... The news around the league is that the Commish hasn't shortened the 8-game suspension of Tank Williams but has in fact allowed him to practice with the team.

In my opinion, this is huge for Dallas fans across the globe. Tank Johnson is a "manimal" that eats up offensive lineman and crushes running backs who try to weasel their way inbetween tackles...

FANTASY IMPACT: Tank is a difference maker....you can't argue that. With him lining up against offenses, it is going to create more opportunities for blitz-packages, freeing up linebackers to do a little more "ball-hawking" and will definitely give their secondary more opportunities to sit back on their heals, unafraid of the run, and start to impact the turnover ratio (Unless they get "Romo"ed again like they did against the Bills). The defense/special teams just took a jump into the top five...if you didn't think they were all ready. Not only that, the time that is going to be added to the offensive side of the ball gives Romo and crew the opportunity to put up "Patriots-like" numbers for the rest of the season.

Statistocrat

Red "Sox" Nay-Sayers in the Mouth

2007-10-19T12:07:00.001-04:00

I realize that I am a "die-hard" Red Sox fan with an active membership to "Sox Nation", "Dirt Dawgs", and "The RemDog Club", so my opinion is completely biased, even jaded... but who cares about that... it's my friggin' blog.

I will admit that although I felt confident we were heading home to Fenway, the next two games scare the heck out of me.

Schilling has the ability to be baseball royalty or an opposition's doormat... The biggest question is which one shows up on Saturday?!?!?!?!

Now let me vent my frustrations with the lack of decision-making on manager Terry Francona. In my opinion, sticking with guys like Pedroia during the season is important, even when he made several attempts to revive an apparently hurt Eric "Meltdown" Gagne... but I have a huge issue with the bottom of the line-up.

My first issue is CoCo Crisp. Is he an exceptional fielder... well, to be honest, he is better than most, but not the best there is. The real question is what is he doing for us offensively? My response... ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!! With each game, I see this smile come across opposing pitcher's faces as they approach the 7-8-9 hitters (especially when Maribelli is in the line-up)... and it makes me sick that Francona just allows it to continue. I don't care how much inexperience Jacoby Ellsbury has... Coco doesn't have any playoff experience and Ellsbury does more for you in the field than Crisp does. He is faster, hungrier, humbler, and had a hot bat before he was relegated to bench duty.

When it comes to Lugo, he is looking more like a lamb heading to slaughter with each at bat... and last night, where he cut Pedroia off with that single up the middle, rather than covering second for a force... ABSOLUTELY ANGERED ME!!! Alex Cora is just as good a fielder and has better plate presence than Lugo ever has...

Lastly, I give props... I will take Bobby Kielty and his fielding and hitting over J.D. "overrated" Drew. I can't stand him... he goes to the plate and swings like he is simply going through the motions. I would rather have Manny say "Who cares if we win or lose, it's not the end of the world" and go 2 for 3 with a single (Home Run!!!), double, and a few RBIs than watch J.D. Drew walk listlessly through the game and do absolute SQUAT for us offensively.

Let's say that Schilling does win, my next issue is his reluctance to go with Jon Lester over Wake or Dice-K... Are you kidding me... he had two and half scoreless innings with 6 strike-outs...

Please, Terry... make the changes, we all ready had a Grady Little... stop being so "player-oriented" and start being "win-oriented".. FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THAT IS HOLY!!!!

BOTTOM-LINE: Put in Alex Cora, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Bobby Kielty... let the others ride the bench and see someone who is hungry to prove themselves... If Schilling wins, Lester, not Matsuzaka pitches... then run DelCarmen, Okie-Dokie, and Paps....

Statistocrat

Week 7 ~ Start'em

2007-10-18T08:00:00.000-04:00

As I take a look at the match-ups for Week 7, I see several players that either have under-performed so far this season, have benefited from injuries, have increased their roles as the season progresses, or simply have a great defensive match-up to take advantage of...

I will not bore you with the typical starters as you should be well aware of who they are, but let's look at either the failing studs, or the great back-ups on the majority of fantasy teams who are dealing with either an game-time injury decision or a bye-week dilemna.

QUARTERBACKS:

Drew Brees: The decision to include Brees in this group is mostly due to his failure to date to generate the points worthy of where most fantasy GMs drafted him. He had his best week of the season this past Sunday and should have an even better one as the Saints slowly get out of their own way. The key to Brees success should be attributed to the likes of Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, and Devery Henderson, however, I believe the key is in the health and speed of savvy veteran David Patten. Look for Brees to capitalize on the faltering defense of the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints won't run up the score, but should win, giving Brees a 250+ YD game with upwards of 3 TDs (more likely two and a pick, but who's counting those when he has done squat to date?)

Damon Huard: Damon is posed to have his best week this year. Gonzalez and Bowe are carrying their own loads while the workhorse, Larry Johnson, is coming into form... (that is what he gets for holding out). Last week Huard showed that he can be effective even in this offense as long as the defense keeps giving him opportunities through turn-overs. I expect L.J. to be tremendous this week with over 100 YDs and 2 TDs, lightening the responsibility for Huard to carry the team... In the end, Huard could crest the 300 YD mark and 3 TDs against an on-again, off-again defensive at Oakland.

Chad Pennington: He has the potential for 300 YDs and 2-3 TDs every game... the difference is whether or not Thomas Jones gets out of the backfield and the defense does their part to get it done fast and furious and get the offense back on the field. NYJ go to CIN to try and win one on the road. The CIN defense is all over the place which can result in either a huge day for a QB or several turn-overs that help CIN to slaughter someone. CIN is hungry for a win, but that doesn't mean that this group of individuals learn the true meaning of the word team.

Brian Griese: Brian proved last week that he can still get it done... sure they didn't win, but he had a great fantasy week. Chicago goes into Phillie against a injury-plagued defense that should work to his advantage. Berrian seems to be the WR of last year, getting 10-12 receiving attempts a game and the tandem of Clark and Olsen makes any QB feel more confident about their offensive potential.

Jeff Garcia: Who hasn't done well against the Detroit Lions? With that in mind, it appears safe to start Garcia and expect good production out of him. They have lost 66% of their starting RBs (Cadillac Williams, Michael Pittman) but still have two serviceable RBs in Earnest Graham (the power) and Michael Bennett (the speed and hands). Galloway continues to defy age, staying as speedy as the best in the league with sure hands and a willingness to go down the middle if needed. Garcia should see over 200 YDs and I expect at least 2 TDs in the air...don't be surprised if he puts one in on the ground too.

RUNNING BACKS:

Lawrence Maroney: It is finally time to get the value of this player at the pick you likely took him at. New England does face a tough front 3 or 4, but beyond the defensive line, the MIA D/ST is suspect. They have a great, young corp. of defensive backs but nothing that should prevent Maroney from cresting the 100 YD mark for the first time this year. Expect the Patriots to use the run game towards the latter part of the game, making all Maroney owners nervous till the end, but if the Pats do what they have done all ready this season to every other opponent, the late third and all of the fourth quarter will be Maroney's.

Rudi Johnson: Thank goodness he is back, for my fantasy teams' sake as well as for the CIN Bengals sake. I expect Rudi to get at or above 22 carries which usually equates to 100 YDs+ and at least a TD. Rest assured that it will be slow at first, especially when CIN faces a NYJ D/St that hasn't found their identity yet and the tandem of Chad and T.J. All in all, it should be a fairly productive day for Johnson who is playing at about 90%.

Brandon Jacobs: It appears to be the "return of the injured" for most of my RB Start'ems. Jacobs has had to solid performances in the past two weeks assuring owners that it is now or never to insert him into your starting line-up. Derrick Ward will still see some carries, but more on third down than any other time. Jacobs is going to help to continue the Giants winning ways. No one more than Eli appreciates his return.

Nejah Davenport: If you are facing bye-weeks and need another running back that will put points up on the board, Nejah is a good candidate this week. Denver has shown that they are struggling to stop the run and Willie Parker can't do it all... Like the last three weeks, Davenport will see the third and short and goalline opportunities that can prove profitable for fantasy owners.

Jerious Norwood: Expect the Falcon's to use the RBs more than ever as Byron Leftwich replaces Joey Harrington this week in New Orleans. The Saints have been susceptible to the run and Norwood has huge, break-away capabilities. Dunn's workload is tapering off and Norwood is going to be the beneficiary. As long as Leftwich doesn't blow it (if he does, likely to a year layoff from the field and a porous offensive line), Norwood should see some very productive opportunities. Again, a great bye-week or injury fill-in.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Bobby Engram: Like Joey Galloway, Engram also continues to defy logic. He is approximately 75 years old in football years, yet still keeps getting it done. Often injured, he is still a great fantasy wide receiver now that Deion Branch is out for the next few weeks. Burleson is good but has poor hand-eye coordination and Hasselbeck throws a tough ball to catch. Expect Engram to be his go-to target against an disgraced STL defense. I expect 100YDs+ and 2 TDs out of Engram this week.

David Patten: Like a Phoenix, David Patten is rising from the ashes. Long dismissed as run-down and injured, David Patten had solid numbers last week and should see equal stats against an Atlanta defense that finds itself truly talented but failing in consistency. Henderson Colston, Copper, and Johnson will keep the defense honest (not to mention Bush) leaving little Davey Patten able to sprint past secondaries and take this team deep.

Patrick Crayton: Patrick has been able to capitalize on the prowess of the offense (J.Jones, M.Barber, J.Witten, T.O.) and the injury to Terry Glenn. Crayton has shown that he is able to carry his portion of the workload and should at the very lest, see opportunities with 20 YDs or less to the endzone. He may not have more than 85 YDS, but should ring up at least 6 PTs with a TD.

Kevin Curtis: The Wayne Chrebet of this error (Some say Wes Welker too, but I consider him more of a Don Beebe, BUF), Kevin Curtis has lightening speed an a willingness to do what it takes to come down with the ball, regardless who is rearing back to take his head off. Westbrook is back, making the PHI offense more viable. I expect Kevin to get some great looks against an injury-plagued and much slower than recent years, Chicago D/ST. This will not be a Detroit Lions statistical day, but should rank in the top 10 WR for this coming Sunday when all is said and done.

Shawn McDonald: Even though I have no faith in Jon Kitna, they Detroit Lions CAN put points on the board. Bearing the blessing of having Ca.Johnson and R. Williams as the No. 1 & 2 wide receivers, Shawn McDonald gets the benefit of having either a safety or a speedy LB when in the red zone. Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Detroit offense will stall often, but I expect McDonald to get enough YD and TD attempts to start him in place of your typical starter. Consider him a strong 4th WR or if needed, 3rd WR when facing multiple bye-weeks and injuries

TIGHT ENDS:

Alge Crumpler: He is talented... and Leftwich is a little more mobile than Harrington, at least i the pocket. Byron will be shakey and therefore he should rely on one of the best check-down options in the league...Crumpler! If the Atlanta Falcon's can establish even a remote running game, I expect Alge to have a great day... say 85 YDs and a TD....hold your breath, but it is entirely possible.

Leonard Pope: Tim Rattay will need someone to checkdown to someone as he gets acclimated to the offense... I think Pope will be that guy. Larry Fitgerald is the man on the offense with a depleted offensive line, I don't expect too, too much out of Rattay and the running game, which is why I recommend Pope to start... but ONLY if you are facing a bye-week with your TE or he is injured (a la "Ben Watson").

Chris Baker: The Jets roll into Cincy this week. With the individualistic issues of the defense and the yet to be established run game (two weeks does not make it consistent), I expect that the CIN D/ST will put most of their focus on Coles and Cotchery, as well as clogging up the middle to stop Thomas Jones.... Who's Left? TE Chris Baker. I expect him to get thrown to at least 8 times... let's say he gets 6 of them.. with an average of 14.8 YDs a reception, that puts him in the 88s for YDs and likely getting a look in the redzone if they can get there.

Greg Olsen: He is a future fantasy stud at the TE position...if he stays there... I expect the offense of the Bears to use him like they are utilizing Dallas Clark in Indy... split out... leaving Clark as either a blocker or a in reverse, having Olsen be a decoy and hitting Clark up the seams. Either way, Olsen is getting more looks than Muhsin Muhammad in the last two games and can't anticipate that changing, not when Griese is in.

Heath Miller: The offense of the Steelers is still run if you can, past if you must, however, Hines Ward is back, but not truly at 100% and Santonio Holmes can only do so much by himself (or maybe not, who can tell with the second year players)... I expect that the Denver defense with a solid secondary and a better than average defensive line will be exposed by the ability of the TEs Spaeth and Miller... although Spaeth came out of the gate early, he is more of a blocker than a receiver. Miller on the other hand has shown in the first two years that he can be counted on to bring the ball in and tear up linebackers for YAC.

That's is sports fans... Use it, Lose it, Abuse it, or Ignore it... but THAT is my fantasy Start'em for Week 7. So for all of those who face injuries, game-time decisions, bye-weeks, or the ability to ride the fence and curse yourself out for not playing a back-up over a starter, there is my advice to you!!!!

Statistocrat

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QB Battle? J.P. Los.....man!!!!

2007-10-17T16:22:00.000-04:00

OUCH!!! Did J.P. Losman just get "Bledsoed?"

News that normally wouldn't reach beyond the upstate of New York, is now reaching the far edges of NFL nation.

J.P. Losman is not starting for the Buffalo Bills this coming weekend. Losman took a vicious elbow to the knee against the Patriots back on Sept. 23. The blow was intentional, of which Vince Wilfork received a hefty fine from the league.

Citing concerns about Losman's health (not at 100%), the coaching staff of the Bills elected to go with Edwards who continued to take the snaps during today's practice. Trent has definitely caught the eye of management with his 22 for 28 performance against the division rival J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS.

FANTASY IMPACT: To be honest, I do not think this is the right decision now... but who the heck am I to say, I just blog about fantasy sports... I wear a headset, but only to take phone calls cuz' I am too lazy to use the handset. I am afraid that this downgrades the whole offense initially (this year) but may have great long term effects. The fact of the matter is, the Bills offense at this point is like riding a bike without a chain... "yer goin' nowhere....FAST!" I expect Lee Evans to step it up regardless as well as Lynch to continue to grow as a starting rookie running back. Here is a chance, if you have a weak QB on the bench, to snag someone with great, quick, precise, decision-making skills (78.5% passer rating, best since Kelly). If you are confident that Losman is done this year....then get'em while you can...just pay attention to Losman and his health progressions... I just don't by that Trent starts the rest of the year, just until Losman is healthy.

Statistocrat

SD Loads the "Chamber",Adds Weapon to Arsenal

2007-10-17T16:00:00.000-04:00

Who'da thunk it? Not I and certainly not Chris Chambers. Late last night, just hours before the deadline, the MIA offense cleared some payroll space and opportunity for their youth as they traded away Chris Chambers for a 2008 2nd round draft choice.

Far be it from me to understand what Cam Cameron is doing, but at least he isn't lying abou what he intends to do (Nick Saban)...

For Chris Chambers AND for the San Diego offense, this should be great news. Phillip Rivers now has L.T., Gates, Chambers, and VJax to get it done with...

I really think that this is going to bolster their chances to turn around their season and make something for themselves. This is an excellent move for SD...for MIA... only time will tell.

FANTASY IMPACT: Not only will this increase the value of Chris Chambers but Phillip Rivers owners (including myself) are literally doing back-flips. This will open up opportunities for L.T. as the offense can not better spread the field. Vincent Jackson will benefit as he can go from young No. 1 to "high ceiling" No. 2 wide receiver. Gates won't mind, but Gates owners may... expect at least 3 touches less a game and even more with L.T. more likely to come out of the backfield.

Statistocrat

Pro Bowler? Michael's "Bennett" before!!!

2007-10-16T15:00:00.000-04:00

Once a heralded first round pick (2001) by the Minnesota Vikings, this oft-injured ex-pro-bowler is no longer going to ride the bench behind L.J.

Michael has received a one way ticket to Tampa Bay. I think this is a great opportunity for a kid who had so much promise to prove that he still has it.

Earnest Graham is a solid young man but does not have the capabilities yet, to be a starter in the NFL. I hope for Michael's sake that he stays injury free and gives himself a chance to make a name for himself and increase his free agent marketability for next season. He is a hard worker and has been patient. Hopefully it pays off now.

FANTASY IMPACT: This is huge for those who had Cadillac and/or Pittman...not so much for Earnest Graham owners. Graham will have a fair share of the load this week but his time is running out as a starter. He will still see returning yardage and some goal-line opportunities (10 touches a game) but it is Bennett's position to lose, come Week 8. Grab'em while he is hot... He has the potential to do some damage...as long as the offensive line doesn't allow damage to be done to him.

Statistocrat

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The "Wright" Free Agent

2007-10-16T10:15:00.000-04:00

Apparently I hadn't really dug to deep when I posted my "waiver wire" blog because this kid is due to continue the trend of the past three weeks with Jamal Lewis getting the "boot"... No, he is not been taken from the starting line-up, he literally has a boot on his foot.

For the past three weeks it has now been apparent that Lewis is sporting an injured foot. Jason Wright, a 3rd year running back out of Northwestern has slowly increased his touches enough that he needs to be considered a third-tier running back.

Both last week and this week, he is averaging 18 carries for 59 YDs and 1 TD (3.9 YD avg.). The average yardage is nothing special, not even average at this point, but it runs consistently with Jamal's numbers through the first four games. This happens when you have a pass-happy offense due to poor offensive line and excelling youth at the WR and TE positions. Until Jamal gets back on the field and in 100% health, it is apparent that the kid gets the call.

FANTASY IMPACT: Cleveland is turning into a pass first, pass second, run third offense. Wright isn't going to win you fantasy games, but he will get you 6-8 points in yardage (1 pt. for every 10 yards) and the potential of a TD (6 pts), giving you a potential of 12 - 14 pts. a week. The Browns face the Rams this coming week and should give Wright the chance to put up even better numbers.

Statistocrat

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"Moore" On The Horizon!

2007-10-16T08:00:00.001-04:00

The Vikings have lowered their trade expectations to a 4th Round Pick for the enigmatic running back/return man. Mewelde Moore has been a career back-up for all intense purposes, handling the majority of kick and punt returns.

He is a speedy, shifty running back out of Tulane (4th season). At 5'11'', 209 Lbs, this 25-year-old running back has been lurking in the background for some time. He can bring solid hands out of the backfield as well as a pretty good career 4.9 YDs a carry.

The Vikings have depth at RB with Chester Taylor and the unbelievable Adrian Peterson. With Moore expendable and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Denver Broncos in need of a RB, it seems inevitable that he will land in one of two places within the week. The trade deadline is fast approaching and I don't expect either to stand still with this recent drop in Moore's market price. I believe that the Bronco's have Mike Bell and Selvin Young so they won't push as hard as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have lost Cadillac for the season and Pittman, their third down back, injured. I believe he will likely end up a Buccaneer.

FANTASY IMPACT: This means something more for young Earnest Graham than it does for anyone else in the NFL. He is bound to lose touches upon Mewelde's arrival. Moore will still split carries, likely landing as the third down specialist with his sure hands and ability to get to the sidelines in a hurry. Anticipate him fielding kick/punt returns too. "When", not "If" this happens, he should quickly be scouped up from the waiver wires (if not before) due to the Buccaneers reliance on the running game.

Statistocrat

What Can "Browns" Do For You?

2007-10-16T08:00:00.000-04:00

To say that the Cleveland Browns are doing better than expectations is an understatement. Viewed as the cellar-dwellers of their division, it appears that the Browns and Bengals have swapped spaces.

Romeo and his crew have managed to win three games bringing the ball club to 3 - 3. They are 2 - 1 in their division and look like a team that is going to continue to put up offensive numbers. They have a chance to be 5 - 3 before going to division leading Pittsburgh in Week 9 and then going to Baltimore for Week 10 (@ STL in Week 7, Seattle at home in Week 8). Their defense IS getting better but is still littered with older veterans and young, inexperienced youth. The team has been generating some fantasy points... of which, no one predicted until a week or two into Derek Anderson's tenure as the starting QB. With that being said, it appears that Brady Quinn will have to learn the system and hold a clipboard as the offense looks as good as it has in 10 years.

FANTASY IMPACT: This team can do a ton for you regardless of who they are facing. Derek Anderson put up 287 YDs and 2 TDs vs. a staunch NE defense. Braylon Edwards has put up some impressive numbers so far this season, accumulating 552 YDs and 7 TDs. Kellen Winslow is coming into his own averaging 84 YDs a game (17.4 YD avg.) and has 2 TDs so far this season. Jamal Lewis has been his typical fantasy letdown, averaging less than 50 YDs (not counting his 200+ YD game) and has seen less touches as the season progresses. The one to watch out for on the waiver wire is young Jason Wright who has seen his workload increase each of the past two weeks including almost 43 YDs in receiving last week against MIA. This means either they don't have faith in Lewis or he is injured and they are not announcing it. All in all, it appears that you can rely on Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, and Kellen Winslow to produce for the future.

Statistocrat

Waiver Wire ~ Week 7

2007-10-15T08:00:00.000-04:00

My sincerest apologies for my "no call / no show" for Week 6. I spent Sunday ~ Wednesday in Indianapolis on business and threw off my whole week. (I regretfully did not bring my laptop, not that I had any real time to do so).

Here is a list of players that may still be available in your free agent pool that could add depth to your line-up and help you on your way to your fantasy league championship game.

QUARTERBACKS:

Brian Griese: He is doing what no NFL quarterback has done in a long time in Chicago... put up points and cut down the turn-overs. Griese has shown an ability to utilize the offense he is in. Berrian is shooting up the ranks as an NFL wide receiver, the tandem of Olsen and Clark are proving invaluable and even Cedric Benson has shown flashes of coming out of his sub-par 3.8 YD per carry average. If you have a QB that has a late bye-week, this may be your man to fill the shoes when the time comes to get off the bench and into the starting line-up.

Tavaris Jackson: The Minnesota offense is growing, both on their fans and in the NFL. Having Holcomb come in did two things: show Tavaris that this offense can be potent if utilized correctly, and two, given Jackson a fire to perform better, knowing that there is a replacement that the organization is willing to lean on during their "growing pains." Jackson has mobility, which is in his favor, and has enough of an arm to utilize the deep threats of Williamson and Rice (both from So. Car.). He showed that he could do it this weekend with a DEEP ball to Williamson. The tandem of Peterson (needs more touches) and Taylor assure him that when ahead, they can run the clock down AND put up points.

Kerry Collins: This is only relevant if in fact Young sees any lost time on the field. Pay attention to the injury report. He isn't great, but has a strong arm and can get it down field in a hurry, especially with the young speed of the WR corp. in Tennessee. Collins would rely on White and Brown to keep the chains moving. He would only be a back-up, but could have good numbers when the match-up is right.

Cleo Lemon: If for no other reason, because he is now the starter in Miami. Cleo is mobile, something Trent Green has never been. He has to be to survive the weak O-line in Miami. Ronnie Brown continues to show great strides this season and WRs Chambers and Booker can, when healthy and motivated, get the job done. The defense is hurting without Zach Thomas and a young secondary, giving Lemon more opportunities to sling the ball down field. Again, another back-up or bye-week replacement, but he beats out a lot of other back-ups riding most fantasy teams' benches.

RUNNING BACKS:

LenDale White: He appears to be healthy and has lost his extra 30 lbs. due to the rigors of the NFL. He only put up 64 YDs this past week but did see the ball more than he has in the past. When facing the right defense, he can have big yardage, but the important factor is where he is receiving his touches... 1st and 2nd and the red zone... Brown is used to get'em there with White being utilized as the muscle when it counts. Sometimes being a little heavier has it's perks.

Nejah Davenport: Nejah is quietly putting up fantasy points and riding most free agent lists. He has 3 TDs this year and is capitalizing on every touch he gets. The coaches have changed in PIT but that doesn't mean that the basic offensive constructs have. This team is still going to pound it down your throat on the ground with only 18 - 22 passing attempts a game. Big Ben still puts up solid numbers but it is the ground game that is going to win ball games. Nejah will play his part and walk away with at least 8 TDs by the end of the season.

Selvin Young: The clock is ticking for Travis Henry. I expect that by the end of October, early November, he will need to 'fess up and serve his time for being a "pothead". The heir apparent is Selvin Young, an undrafted rookie free agent out of the University of Texas. The kid has powerful legs, shifty moves, and leans into every hit for that extra one or two yards. He also has speed enough to get around the linebackers and turn it up field in a hurry. If you have space on your bench, he should be sitting there. If you are in a keeper league, you should consider adding him to the bench before your free agent deadline, just in case Henry never makes it back to Denver...with injuries and addictions, this could be a distinct possibility.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Lee Evans: I am shocked at the number of leagues that I am in or the leagues that people I speak with have dropped this kid. Losman won't be gone forever and Lee Evans is his main target. With Lynch getting his NFL legs under him, by the time Losman comes back, this team could do some damage. Price is out as the 2nd WR, so speedy Roscoe Parrish steps back into the role and will prove invaluable late in the season (especially if your league rewards return yardage). Grab'em and let'em ride the pine until Losman comes back, then you are stacked for a late season run.

Reggie Williams: More and more, David Garrard is leaning on this first round draft pick that until this point has been a let down. The offense is starting to gel and Williams is definitely benefiting. If you have a weak WR corp., pick him up. He may be at the bottom of your WR package, but with the way he is being called upon by David, that may turn around in the 2nd half of the season.

Donte Stallworth: Due to the success of Moss, Welker, and Watson, many gave up on this player. A No. 1 on most teams, he has been picking up a head of steam in the past three weeks, averaging almost a 100 Yds and TD a week. Ben Watson may be down for a while (watch the injury report) which would all but guarantee even more utilization of this slippery, speedy, wide receiver. Check the free agent pool, you may be shocked to see him sitting there calling out your name.

David Patten: A few weeks ago I mentioned this players name. The one thing that NO lacks is speed, which is something that David Patten has. He went over a 100 YDs for the first time since leaving New England, making a stop along the way to NO at WAS. There he was under-utilized and eventually hurt and put on the I/R. Expect David to become more of a threat, not necessarily getting more than 5 - 7 passes a game, but with his size and speed it makes it difficult to keep up with him, then tackle him.

Bobby Engram: As long as he is healthy, he is the go to guy in Seattle. With Branch out at least until Week 9, Engram gets the call. He had four games in a row, late last year, where he saw the majority of passing attempts, netting high yardage and at least a TD a game... however, he got injured, so watch his health if you take a stab at him on your roster.

TIGHT ENDS:

Greg Olsen: For some, especially smaller leagues, he is still out there. He is fast enough to be a WR, yet big enought to be a TE. Clark is used more for short yardage and run-blocking ability yet Olsen still has the best chance to net you fantasy points. Griese is in love with his TEs and it should be known that Olsen is splitting out more and more, being utilized like Indy is doing with Clark.

Donald Lee: Let's face it, the Packers can't run... with that being said, anyone who is young, quick, and has "sure hands" has a shot at some fantasy points. Lee is steadily replacing Franks. He has been called upon with in the red zone more and more. I expect him to be in the top 7 by the end of the year...

Randy McMichael: Boy has he disappeared in the fantasy world. I believe that Bulger under-utilized his abilities (really the Offensive coach), but with Frerotte in, there is a chance that over the next few weeks, he could be useful in the fantasy format. Don't hold your breath or lose someone valuable for him, but if you have no one on your line-up, facing a bye-week, or dealing with an injured TE, grab'em.

Those are my fantasy waiver wire grabs for the NFL Week 7. I hope that you find this informative and useful. I will see you all later when we approach mid-week with my fantasy Sit'em and Start'em blogs.

Statistocrat

Week 5 ~ "Start'em"

2007-10-04T08:00:00.000-04:00

How quick is Week 5 coming? To be a fourth of the way through the season is both exciting and depressing. I can't get enough of this game. As we look at this week's match-ups, I will focus on the second-tier players to hone in on during your Sunday morning decisions.

Bye-Week Teams: Cincinnati, Oakland, Minnesota, Philadelphia

There are a lot of good players riding the pine this week including Carson Palmer, T.J. Housh, Ocho Cinco, Donavan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, etc...

With that, the difference between a win or a loss is the right decision regarding your bench players. Here are several players at key positions that I think should be considered for starting, including my reasons why.

QUARTERBACKS:

David Carr: The kids IS good. Sure he looked awfull against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but in the past two weeks, the Buccaneers defense has transformed itself into something worth considering as a starting D/ST. Additionally, he is in a new offense and hasn't had as much time with the starting line-up as is needed to be successful. The line let him down last week but they are facing a divisional opponent, one which is 0-3 overall and 0-1 at home. I don't see this changing too much as it appears that the Saints have come back down to earth and Brees is throwing ducks out on the gridiron. I think that with Steve Smith, there is always a chance for the QB to be effective.

Trent Green: He has 5 TDs and 7 INTs, but is averaging 245 YDs a game. The Texans were exposed last week by the Falcons and I anticipate a crafty Cam Cameron to come with his guns loaded. Chambers has been fairly productive with a healthy Marty Booker sitting across from him. Ronnie Brown looks like he is on the up-swing and ready to put up another great showing against a defense that again, was exposed last Sunday. Green is saavy and should be able to capitalize on Sunday, barring the offensive line completely blowing up.

Joey Harrington: He looks....comfortable... I can say that I thought this would be a good fit, but the production that he is getting out of the offense, win or lose, in the past three weeks, looks VERY optimistic for the rest of the year. Jenkins, White, and Crumpler are getting the job done, Dunn looks healthy and Norwood is a great back-up and return man. The difference in the game will be Joey's ability to keep tabs on Keith "I love interceptions" Bullock (3 last week). The defense of TEN is built around up front pressure and turn-over focused LBs and secondaries (like the Bengals, except they actually try to be a team).

Gus Frerotte: He is like Brad Johnson. He shows up due to injury and for about 6 - 8 games, looks great, then he has a meltdown. He won't be in the helm that long and against the Arizona Cardinals, he will surely get his chances to put up numbers. If you don't have him, pick him up, dropping your weakest link and/or back-up QB, then run with him during the bye-week or during injury-laiden weeks where your starter is down.

Steve McNair: He looked terrible last week unless you count passing YDs. I expect a different outcome now that they are facing a team (SanFran) that will be playing from behind most of the day (my opinion) and most likely worn out by late third quarter. Trent Dilfer is a "manager" on the field, but simply looks like a lost lamb out on the field. McNair will have his way, likely moving over 300 YDs and at least 2 TDs, maybe an additional one on the ground.

RUNNINGBACKS:

Sammy Morris: Although the injury report shows that Maroney is "ready to go", don't expect him to be a huge part of the offense. The Patriots understand the "long haul" of an NFL season and will most likely work Maroney in slowly. I don't think Sammy gets more than 15 touches with maybe 70-85 YDs, but believe he will get more than one chance from 10 YDs in to put up TDs. The Patriots are an awesome team, but unless you are Tom Brady or Randy Moss, they are always going to have spotty fantasy starters due to their willingness to share the workload. In this case, Kevin Faulk & Lawrence Maroney will cut into Morris' opportunity as well as Heath Evans who has been known to bull his way into the end-zone.

DeShaun Foster: He is usually good for at least 4-5 great games a year. Against a defense that is poor in the front seven, this should be his chance. The Saints will focus on the run due to the recent insertion of David Carr, but the offense, including Steve Smith and TE Jeff King have shown that they need some respect. I expect either a slow start and a waning second half or blowing up the d-line early and having 75-80 YDs and 1 TD before half-time... either way, I believe he gets 100+ YDs and 1 TD.

Kevin Jones: Like I have said in recent weeks (especially week 3 where I predicted 2-3 weeks before he cut into Tatum Bell's statistics), Kevin Jones is taking over the important downs for Detroit. Jones is a better pass blocker than Tatum and stronger (if not injured) to pound the line of scrimmage and get that short yardage needed to keep the defense honest and give one of the best WR Corp.s in the NFL to get open and "do what they do". Kevin has had a TD in the past two weeks, with his yardage going from 3 attempts for 5 YDs rushing to 10 attempts for 38 YDs rushing. I anticipate anywhere from 15 - 18 touches with approximately 50 YDs and another TD.

Earnest Graham: In my most recent blog, "You make the Call ~ Graham or Pittman", I posed the question, who to start for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After reviewing everything, I believe that Graham gets the goal-line touches unless Pittman breaks something from about 20+ YDs out. Pittman will see the yardage, Graham the TDs. In most leagues, it is advantageous to go with the TD guy than the yardage guy. The rumors of the Mewelde Moore trade with Minnesota are short lived as the Vikings are asking for a first day draft pick (1 - 3 rd). I don't think he is that good. Do they want him to start? NO. Actually, I think they want him to return kicks and turn Graham into "their guy".

Brandon Jacobs: Derrick Ward has done well, but as a rule, starters don't lose their job due to injury. Ward has done exceptionally and has earned himself a long term position with the team. I believe that Jacobs will get the call with short yardage and goal situations for this week, eventually taking over full control of 1st and 2nd downs with Ward acting as a scat back for 3rd downs. Jacobs will see approximately 10-15 touches and get approximately 50 YDs but again, should put up 6 with a TD.

Selvin Young: I love this kid and if you are in a keeper league, grab'em. Travis Henry has more injuries than Colorado Springs E.R. His NFL career has been plagued by ankle injuries and Young is the next in line (sorry Mike Bell). Young will get 3rd down duties against San Diego, trying to expose the linebackers who have to back-off due to the poor play of their secondaries. In addition, the SD defense is not the same without Wade Phillips. Young has had at least one break out play that jacks up his fantasy value each week. Don't expect this week to be any different.

Brian Leonard: He put up 78 YDs in his debut last Sunday. With a QB that at least has all his ribs in tact and a history to show he can deliver the ball, I believe that Brian grabs 100 YDs and 1 TD. This is a shaky start, but if there aren't many resources on your bench, you should feel comfortable that Brian will give you something to keep your match-up competitive.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Santonio Holmes: He is quickly living up to his draft pick status. He has become the number 1 wide reciever while Hines Ward recovers from his most recent injury situation. Holmes has been a pleasant surprise as he was generally drafted after the 10th round of most fantasy drafts. Although the tandem of Spaeth & Miller also benefit from Ward's absense or limited presence, it is Holmes who ultimately will be the benefactor of many looks from Big Ben. To not start him would simply be a shame at the least...

Jerricho Cotchery: Jerricho is the guy who will ease up and turn in on hook, short slants, and outs, becoming one of the best check-down receivers in the NFL. I expect that the NYG won't let up as they face their in-state, in-stadium rivals, punishing Chad Pennington early and often. Someone has to be ready to alter their route for the blitz and Cotchery is your man. He is going to see at least 100 YDs, the question always is, will he get the chance to put 6 on the board.

Roddy White:I can't leave him off the blog, especially with Harrington all ready listed. White has quickly become the most reliable WR on the team. His recent stardom has elevated the opportunities for Michael Jenkins as well. White will definitely get enough catches to post 100 YDS, but the real question, like Cotchery, is whether he puts the ball in the end-zone. He is a great Week 5 replacement as the Falcons face the Titans and their "aggressive" approach to the secondary... The Titans can look great, but their approach can also make them look very, very bad. For White's sake, I hope it's the latter.

Dwayne Bowe: I realize what team he plays on and who is throwing to him, but tell that to the Chiefs. Bowe has had a TD in the last three games. With L.J. growing into season-speed, I can only expect Bowe to become an even bigger threat... Gonzalez and L.J. keep most defenses fairly honest, focusing on the QB rush to disrupt the pass. Bowe, although a rookie, has shown enough saavy to be open when the blitz comes and make a big impact on the outcome of each drive.

Brandon Marshall: With Javon Walker nursing a bum knee, it is Marshall who is becoming the go-to-gue for young Jay Cutler. The offense is built around the run. With Henry & Young handling the rock, you can be sure that they should have clock on their side. Marshall has shown the ability to run crisp routes, get up there for jump balls (6-4, 230 lbs.), and get behind the defender as they "feel" for the running game, getting burned more than once in a game.

Greg Jennings: He isn't practicing until Friday and that worries some of the fantasy GMs out there. But should it? He hasn't practiced the last two weeks and look what he has done...125 YDs and 2 TDs. Green Bay is facing a Chicago defense that is amazing in the front seven, but hasn't exactly gotten it done in the secondary. With Driver, Jennings, and young James Jones, this could prove to be another good day for Jennings.

TIGHT ENDS:

Owen Daniels: Daniels will face a tough secondary with MIA, but that doesn't necessarily affect him in a poor manner. The truth is, he should have a better day as the MLB Zach Thomas isn't available to run him over all day, making Daniels a key short/mid-range pass down the middle. Daniels should have his best game of the year to date. Doubles will go Andre Davis' way leaving the Weak side CB to play man to man. The Texans like to blitz from the SS position, giving a lot of open field and potential for Daniels to "do his thing" on Sunday.

Randy McMichael: Frerotte will have to rely on McMichael to help him out, not only with the offensive line (NOT his forte), but more importantly, as a sturdy checkdown receiver. He should see 7 - 9 receiving opportunities this week as they face the 'Zona defense...what McMichael does with these, especially yards after first contact will determine how the offense progresses and obviously, how well he will do for your fantasy line-up.

Jeff King: This second year TE is slowly making a name for himself down in Carolina. The Panthers have never really had a pass-catching TE in their system, relying more on the TE to block than to catch. This change will increase as he will be used as a check-down receiver for QB David Carr. I fully anticipate no less than 5 attempts, but more likely 7 - 9, giving him a chance at anywhere from 70-90 YDs (avg 10.3 per reception). I consider him a great sleeper TE for not only this week, but for those to come.

Those are my second-tier picks for this edition of "Start'em". I hope that the information proves usefull and that it produces more "W"s than "L"s....

Statistocrat

"Cadillac Out... Who's In?"

2007-10-03T13:31:00.000-04:00

To be honest, I am perplexed! I can make arguements for both runningbacks, but not enough for me to decide who I would pick-up and play.

I am going to lay out the arguements and let you decide.

MICHAEL PITTMAN: I am a fan of Michael Pittman. Originally drafted by the Arizona Cardinals (10th Season). He has exceptional size (6'0, 228 lbs) and speed. The best thing going for Pittman is that he has all ready developed a relationship with Jeff Garcia as a third down specialist. He has great hands (ranked 2nd on the team with receptions last year). Jeff has just come from an offense (PHI) where they utilized the RB out of the backfield more than most. Michael has all the parts in place to be an effective "West Coast" offense that Garcia prospers in. The unfornate thing is that is not how the offense is truly built. It does show flashes of this, but relies heavily on running inside the guards....lots of dives. They could alter their approach and play Michael at least 75% of time, but just as easily split the carries. He should not lose his third down duties, so the question is, does "Chuckie" split 1st and 2nd, giving Pittman more of the carries, using Graham on goal-line attempts, or lean more to Graham on 1 and 2nd and give them both shots at the endzone.

EARNEST GRAHAM: All ready excelling with kick-offs and returns (his forte), he has shown that he can take his hard-nosed approach and run it right into the belly of the defense, putting up 3 TDs in 4 games. He has a storied college career and has done all the right things over the past three years to earn him this opportunity. At 5'9", 225 lbs, he is thick, fast, and hard to tackle. Will he be the "Sammy Morris, Marion Barber" that takes away TDs but acquiesces to the Yardage total? It's apparent that he has a vote of confidence from the coach and has performed well when handed the "rock", the question truly is, has it been enough to upend a veteran with the skills of Michael Pittman?

FINAL THOUGHTS: Each has 30 carries, with Pittman averaging 5.7 YDS (above league average) to Grahams 4.5 YDS (about par with league average), however, Graham has the advantage of proving he can get it in the end-zone when it counts [Graham-3; Pittman-0]. Pittman has 9 receptions for 78 YDs (8.7 YD Avg.) while Graham only has 2 for 17 YDS (8.5 YD Avg.). The truth is, they are fairly dead even when it comes to statistics. The difference is experience at being a number 1 starter (Pittman) as opposed to being a career special teams guy (Graham). Coach "Chuckie" doesn't rely on that, but does rely on what he sees.

It may come down to match-ups and who does well in the scheme for that particular week (based on practice and injury potential). Truthfully, I cannot decide, believing that both have a solid chance to touch the ball more than the other. I may be splitting hairs in reality, but fantasy-wise, it could be close or a huge difference in fantasy points.

You decide... Who would you pick-up, fantasy-wise, and why?

Statistocrat

Week 5 ~ Waiver Wire Watch

2007-10-01T23:00:00.000-04:00

Sorry for the late installment this week... sometimes life just takes over the control of the wheel. Here are my list of potential players that are available (based on the top sites) in the free agent market. As usual, some of you are in more saavy leagues and these players aren't available or you are in a large league (12+) and there isn't much to pick from when it comes to bye week replacement and/or injury filler.

QUARTERBACK:

Duante Culpepper: Granted, he WAS playing the team that didn't want him (proved his point, I think). Not only that, the future of Oakland is a "Culpepper-like" guy (JaMarcus Russell). He didn't have to pass much because of the resurgent offensive line, however, he has great potential to reward his fantasy GMs with rushing yards and touchdowns. If you have the injured starters in the league (Alex Smith, Shoulder... J.P. Losman, Knee... Matt Leinart, Ego...) than Culpepper just might be your man.

Joey Harrington: Don't look now, but Harrington just may be the highest point total getter on your free agent market (unless Derek Anderson is still available, which he probably is). Joey has found something in the receivers of Jenkins and White and I don't think it will stop there. Expect Crumpler to grow into this lineup from here forward.

Kurt Warner: Arizona is 2 - 2 and that doesn't stop there as Kurt will be assigned to all no huddle, 2 minute offenses to start... but my gut feeling is that they may pull back the reigns on Leinart and let him watch and learn (Palmer-like). It will be ego bruising, but if he is a big boy, he will definitely suck it up and learn from a great, precision, fast paced, quick-releasing QB.

Marc Bulger: I know some of you are shocked that he is here, on my list. Take some time to search your waiver wire... You may be shocked to find him on the waiver wire. If not, try and trade for him. Jackson will be back and Holt will catch on...

RUNNINGBACKS:

Justin Fargas: "Huggie Bear" should be proud as Justin lit up MIA defense for 170+ YDs on Sunday. Rhodes is coming back from his suspension, but will be limited at best... Jordan is ailing... and Fargas is frothing at the mouth to start. He is someone you can pick up and use until the well runs dry. The team is based on running and shouldn't change in the next week or so when he proves most valuable.

Michael Pittman: Easily the highest runningback to be picked up this week. The loss of Cadillac Williams will make him valuable. He wil share snaps on 1st and 2nd, but will definitely retain his 3rd down position, giving him the majority of the touches. Pittman will have some big games, it's simply "in him".

Kenny Watson: He isn't Rudi Johnson, but CIN needs to run the ball to keep the defense honest. He will most likely see at least one more game as the starter and have some affect on 3rd down from here forward, actually limiting the quality of Rudi Johnson for the rest of the season.

Selvin Young: Even if Travis Henry continues to starts, I can all ready see a changing of the guard. Selvin is getting more touches every week. He has a great burst and ability to slip through tackles. Denver is a notorious 2-back team. He is a great filler on bye weeks and injury replacement, especially great trade bait, not if, but when Travis Henry ends up on the I/R.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Sidney Rice: Gamecock fans can't talk enough about his 75 YD, 1 TD game this past Sunday. (Trust me, I know, I now live outside of Columbia, SC and work in the Capital City during the day.) Holcomb looked comfortable throwing to Rice and I fully expect this relationship to grow.

Bobby Engram: Branch, Burleson....AND Engram. Bobby (another SC native) has a knack of being available to Matt Hasselback. He was last year, before injury, and is again proving that he still "has it". He is great to add depth to WR Corp. He will get more touches as the offense grows.

James Jones: Why not, Favre seems to be able to get it to anyone... hell, I think he threw a touchdown to Randy Moss in Cincinnati from Wisconsin during MNF tonight. He is growing in his role of the team and can be looked for more now that Greg Jennings is regaining health and a healthy respect from secondaries.

Ike Hilliard: The game plan was designed to utilize Hilliard more, but that doesn't mean that Chuckie and the Boys won't rely on him more as Galloway continues to get doulbe coverage and Pittman will be coming out of the backfield more and more. It gives more opportunity for Ike to get open and put up some significant fantasy points when the match-up is right.

Andre Davis: I told you during last weeks "Start'em" that he will going to have a big day. If you didn't believe me and he is available... Grab'em... Even when A.J. returns, expect Davis to be opposite him.

TIGHT ENDS:

Owen Daniels: Schaub is finally getting accustomed to the offense and it's weapons. Owen began to look like what most thought he would look like, a definite third option. The loss of Andre Johnson may have helped, but another Andre... Andre Davis became the new threat. Expect Daniels to be more integrated in the passing game as the season progresses.

Bubba Franks: What the hell... If Favre is now relevent, Bubba might as well be too. No, seriously, he is actually becoming more invaluable as the run game simply doesn't exist. With that, there is less blocking and more opportunity for reception. I expect that if Favre continues, Franks role will too...

Justin Peelle: A relative unknown, but proving that he deserves to be looked at, especially if your tight end is on a bye week, injured, or simply proving that he cannot do more than fill a hole in your roster spot.

I hope that this helps as you make your last minute decisions for tonight and tomorrow.

Statistocrat

'Skins seek Old Bones for Support

2007-10-01T14:00:00.000-04:00

The Redskins may be 2 -1 and "in the thick of things" in their division, but they are far from being mentioned as playoff candidates.

The offense can move the ball, but struggle to put points on the board. They are beat up (Santana Moss, Randel El) and expect to lose starters (Portis, for one). Jason Campbell simply doesn't have enough options to get it done. [I disagree, but facts are facts, Moss, Randel El, Cooley, and the tandem of Betts/Portis simply aren't potent enough to get it done].

Desperate for help, the Washington Redskins today secured the services of an aging WR Keenan McCardell. Last seen in a Chargers uniform, McCardell is a saavy veteran that has the ability to get open. Not quite a Galloway or Jurevicious, but enough that he can have some impact, when the match-up is right.

Is this the answer? No! But when you are taking a test, sometimes filling something in the blanks, gives you a better shot at getting the score up than leaving it blank.

FANTASY IMPACT: If anything, it gives Cooley a chance to get more looks as their is another receiver available. It also can give more downs off for Moss and Randel El to keep their speed throughout the whole game and not burn out by the half. The running game won't improve much, but it will give Jason Campbell a smidge more fantasy value. All in all, this will improve the team and it's future, but not any true fantasy impact.

Statistocrat

"Elementary Dear "Watson, "Johnson's" Out!!!"

2007-09-28T14:00:00.000-04:00

It must be tough to realize that you are hosting one of the toughest defensive squads in the league without your stud running back. The Bengals' camp has announced that Rudi Johnson is out for Monday Night Football.

Kenny Watson, a six year veteran of the league, was originally drafted by the Washington Redskins. He isn't as big as Rudi Johnson, therefore, he will not try to plow through defensive lineman and linebackers, but he is faster and has great elusiveness. Kenny will savor the chance to get the start, until about half-way through the first quarter when he realizes that New England Defense is dominating him like a new guy on the cell block...used and abused, then passed along so that it can be done again.

I think that if you are a Cincinnati fan, you are looking to Vegas to see if the line changes. As it stands, I have seen it hover around "-6"... if this thing grows, you might as well DVR the game and focus on your weekly sitcoms. Sometimes, however, changes like this actually stimulates Vegas to go the other way... if that is the case, paint yourself up and start whooping it up like it was 1999.

Being a Patriots homer, I just don't see it. The Pats are one of the best running teams and one of the best run-defense teams. The one thing that Cincinnati has to it's favor is height...in the WR corp. Asante Samuel, Ellis Hobbs III, Randall Gay, James Sanders, Eugene Wilson, and Rodney Harrison are all "vertically challanged" which gives T.J., and C.J. great opportunity, at least early in the game.

FANTASY IMPACT: If you are like me and have many o' teams invested in Rudi Johnson, this is completely deflating. Scurry like rabbits and grab Kenny Watson, Brian Leonard, or Correll Buckhalter as fast as you can, get out the prayer mat, and start bowing towards the east, cuz' yer' gunna need it!!! This benefits the NE Defense more than anyone (besides Vegas for this late scratch)... I can't see this being any better for those who have Cincinnati Defense as they are likely to play behind, most of the game. Carson Palmer, C.J., and T.J will either blow up with big points or implode with "Nare' a point ta'show fer it, Saavy?"

Statistocrat

Week 4 ~ "Sit'em"

2007-09-28T07:00:00.000-04:00

This is an exciting week as there are a ton of "starters" that I believe will not have a good showing by the time the week is out. There are many players that could fall into the category of "Sit'em", but I believe these are the ones that could make or break your week. Unfortunately, I am listing half of my keeper league's team, but that just comes with the territory.

Here are this week's "Sit'em"...

QUARTERBACKS:

Jon Kitna: I realize that he is a gun-slinging mad-man with tons of talent and opportunity (Williams, Ca. Johnson, S. McDonald, M. Furrey), however, they are facing a staunch defense that is prone to break you down as the game progresses. Chicago has the ability to rush the pass and rush defense like no other. Similar to Baltimore and now San Fransisco's defense, it's the front 7 that dictates how this game goes. They WILL stop the run, will hurry Kitna frequently and will turn this into a battle of turnovers. Kitna will "get his", but I don't feel that it is going to be a fairly profitable week regarding fantasy points.

Jay Cutler: He has shown that he isn't ready regardless of how calculated Mike Shanahan is. The run hasn't been the typical Bronco's strength which has lead for them to rely more on the pass to deliver points on the board. With Javon's knee basically sidelining him, if not, at least slowing him down enough that he cannot get behind the average backfield. INDY has shown that they are above average, at least with the punishing blows of Bob "The Nailer" Sanders wrecking havoc from literally anywhere on the field. Brandon Marshall will have enough of a showing to start him, but Cutler will be ineffective against a hungry defense and a potent offense. The most likely will play from behind the whole game with many INTs possible.

Matt Leinart: I want him to be successful, but after his first three weeks, it doesn't seem possible. PIT is ruthless in their pursuit of the quarterback and the wide receivers, which is the majority of the Cardinals offensive strength. The Cardinals WILL be held to a one dimensional offense this week... Running the ball. I anticipate another mid-game swap as Warner's abilty to quickly read defenses and just as quick to get rid of the ball. Either way, many picks, dropped passes, quarterback hurries and sacks, as the Steelers have their way with the 'Zona offense.

Eli Manning: He has been surprisingly successful up to this point of the season. That streak ends Sunday. I cannot see him doing too much with an ailing Burress, a young talent in Steve Smith, a slowing/aging Amani Toomer, and an average run game. The only thing saving him is the quality of the offensive line. Jeremy Shockey will be a great start, but even he won't do more than 65 YDs and a TD.

RUNNINGBACKS:

Rudi Johnson: He hasn't do too, too much so far and I don't expect it to be much better this week. Regardless that CIN is at home, have great receivers, an amazing quarterback, and a better than average offensive line, the only factor that matters is this.... They are facing the NE Patriots defense. When you hold Thomas Jones, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Marshawn Lynch to under 50 YDs, you can't expect Rudi Johnson to do much more than that. This hurts as he is my top runningback in many leagues (where I picked 7th or later, including my keeper league).

Larry Johnson: Two weeks ago, I told you to sit him and for the most part, I was right. I got tons of people telling me "you just don't sit Larry Johnson"... The response I give is, "YES....YES YOU DO!!!" Don't get hung up on last years stats, his "namesake" or his potential... Not when he is essentially still in training camp mode, has a weak offense (besides the line) and truly hasn't done enough to say he is ready to shoulder his offense and earn the massive amounts of money he received. Sit'em... He will be ready in another two weeks, but he is not the answer.... San Diego is too tough in the run-defense department.... instead, look for KC to capitalize on the weak secondary of SD.

Cadillac Williams: Recently, he has looked like the Cadillac of old... The rookie "Cadillac", not the sophomore slump "Cadillac". Unfortunate for Williams' owners, he is facing a tough run-defense at Carolina. He will see more work out of the screen and swing routes through the air than he will see statistics on the ground. He will rebound, but expect a tough week.

Warrick Dunn: He appears to be fairly healthy, but the loss of Vick takes away from the effectiveness of Dunn. The defense doesn't have to protect every inch of the field, which allows them to hurry Harrington and crowd the line on obvious run downs (1 and 10) (2 and 5 or less). Atlanta is facing a young, tough, and aggressive defensive line... I don't expect him to really do anything of note this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Plaxico Burress: If you are going to see a specialist, it can't look too promising, not with the quality of internal medical staffing for these NFL corporations. He has pushed through to date with outstanding results. I think this is the week that either they sit him for a "quick recovery" or he fights through it and has difficulty against a motivated Philly secondary, even without Brian Dawkins. I have been wrong with "Plastic-O" before, but think I am right on with this assessment.

Tory Holt: According to Marc Bulger history, he always tanks in the first three games which is why I don't draft him, but trade for him right around this time... GMs get fed up easy with their quarterbacks. Holt is still hobbled by a knee injury and will not benefit from a quarterback with broken ribs, a starting "elite" runningback that is out, and a Dallas defense that is quickly growing into the mold that Wade Phillips envisions with this line-up. Again, another keeper and often drafted by myself, this is a tough pill to swallow.

Calvin Johnson: Chicago Bears. Need I say more. I think that Kitna will struggle mightily, affecting Johnson and the rest of the Lions offense. He is listed as probable, but don't think it is much, but the bottom-line is, they are facing an extremely difficult defense who likes to mask their secondary, exposing poor decisions by the quarterback and bad route-running by the wide receiver. He is a phenomenal talent and has an extremely bright future, but this will not be a day he will shining.

Roddy White: Each week he has grown statistically. Harrington is developing a relationship with White, however, Houston is going to make the Falcon's look bad and White will come down to earth like Randel El has recently done. I expect that he will get his chances, I just don't see this being a big day for him or the Falcons.

TIGHT ENDS:

Kellen Winslow: The fact is, he is injured (SHOCKING!!) Additionally, the Browns are palying the Ravens, regardless that they are at home. I think that this is going to be a blow-out with Baltimore simply running away with it (literally, I think McGahee has a HUGE day). Winslow will see limited action, especially if they get down early. Romeo may be a bad coach, but he isn't stupid.

Dallas Clark: I think he will be stymied by the Denver Defense. I don't have any facts to back it up, just a gut feeling that they will rely heavily on Addai and a young Anthony Gonzalez this week, thinking they can simply go underneath enough (Addai & Gonzalez, to get him in the mix) that they can open up the field, keep the secondary honest, and burn them with a safety corp. that is strong/powerful, but not necessarily fast.

Randy McMichael: Why sign a guy if you aren't going to use him. This can go either way, either Bulger thinks he's superman, attempting the same, long, drawn out plays to get WRs deep and gets demolished or due to the Leonard experiment, poor offensive line, and cracked ribs, relies heavily on McMichael. Unfortunately, he doesn't call plays, make audibles from the line, or anticipate anything other than what is given, therefore lending itself to the "superman" complex more than the "checkdown" approach.

I hope that this information proves valuable when Week 4 is done and in the books. There are some picks that I think could pay off... it could back fire... but such is life in the NFL and the fantasy world.

Happy Managing!!!

Statistocrat

"You MIGHT Be A Dunderhead If..."

2007-09-27T14:00:00.000-04:00

I give my personal props to Jeff Foxworthy as I create what I believe to be some of the most dunder-headed moves of week"...

YOU MIGHT BE A DUNDERHEAD IF...

5. [Marc Bulger]You believe that having several cracked ribs doesn't affect a Quarterback and his throwing and decision-making.

He has two broken ribs, is coming off a three-interception game and ranks 26th in NFL passer rating. But quarterback Marc Bulger is not making excuses. And not backing down, even if it means going against the party line at Rams Park.How much is the rib injury holding him back? "None," Bulger replied ~ St. Louis Post-Dispatch

4. [Donovan McNabb] You think that in this day and age, that people look at race/creed/color, when praising or flambasting their quarterbacks. (besides, maybe, your dunderheaded counterparts who "lives in denial")

In a bizarre interview that ended with McNabb walking off the podium at the Philadelphia Eagles practice facility Wednesday, the five-time Pro Bowl quarterback reiterated his statement on HBO that black QBs face greater scrutiny than their white counterparts. ~ MSN.Com

3. [Milton Bradley] You are so enraged by something someone says that you lose your temper, your head, further removing your team's chances of a playoff bid and potentially ending your career by blowing out an ACL during a verbal argument... How do you even DO THAT!

San Diego Padres outfielder Milton Bradley will have surgery Thursday in Cincinnati to repair a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee. Bradley sustained the season-ending injury when his own manager spun him to the ground while trying to keep him from going after umpire Mike Winters during an eighth-inning confrontation in Sunday's 7-3 loss to Colorado.
~ SI.Com

2. [Rex Grossman] If you saw the way you played quarterback for, oh, I don't know...your whole career, and didn't see this coming!

Despite being the second-lowest-rated starting quarterback in the NFL, Rex Grossman didn't expect his demotion to backup quarterback that coach Lovie Smith made official Wednesday."I was surprised but [felt] frustration," Grossman said after his first day of practice as the No. 2 quarterback. ~ Chicagosports.com

AND THE NUMBER ONE SIGN YOU MIGHT BE A DUNDERHEAD IF...

1. [Michael Vick] You test positive for marijuana use during a drug test while being accused... OF A FRIGGIN' FELONY!!!!

"Falcons quarterback Michael Vick tested positive for marijuana, has been confined to his Virginia residence at night, forced to wear an electronic monitoring device and ordered to receive mental health counseling, according to court documents filed Wednesday." Vick tested positive in a urine sample submitted on September 13, 2007, 17 days after a plea agreement in federal court on felony charges related to dogfighting. ~ Atlanta Journal-Constitution

I had so much fun with this article, I may have to do this more often. Until next time...

Statistocrat

Week 4 ~ "Start'em"

2007-09-27T13:00:00.000-04:00

We enter our first week with the need to cover some positions due to the bye week. Reviewing this week's matchups, there are some obvious choices, of which I don't need to get into.... If you don't know whether or not to play them, you shouldn't own a team, but this article is for the bye week replacements and decisions between your second-tier players or free agent "steals".

QUARTERBACKS:

Matt Schaub: Although he is not typically your first string quarterback, unless you have McNabb (against a porious NYG secondary), Romo (does it matter who they are up against anymore?), Brady (again, does it matter? 38 points, thank you... NEXT!!!), then you may want to consider using Schaub as a spot starter. If you are torn between playing Palmer or not, I recommend you don't. The Patriots are number 2 in pass-defense, allowing teams approx. 157 yds a game.

Kyle Boller: Baltimore faces a Division I-AA defense at CLE this week. They are in the bottom five of both pass and run defense (Romeo, or Romeo, where ar thou defense, Romeo?). He is a game manager by nature and has a great chance to push 200+ yds, 2 tds or more!

Brian Griese: No, I didn't pick him because he is fresh meat. Actually, he is facing a defensive secondary that had 4 TDs and almost 400 yds last week. Although that was extreme, they haven't faired much better in there previous attempts at stopping the pass. With Berrian, Muhammad, Olsen, and Clark, I see a great game for Brian to come out and win some fan support.

Chad Pennington: He really hasn't been the epitome of health, nor a yardage machine, but he has put up approximately 175 yds and 2TDs in each of his two starts against solid secondaries (@ NE: 167 YDs & 2 TDs, 124 YDs & 2 TDs). The Buffalo Bills pale in comparison to these two teams so he should see 200+ and potentially 3 TDs.

Jeff Garcia: The reason I added him to the list this week is because of Carolina's inability to properly defend the pass, to date. I realize that beyond Galloway and Williams out of the backfield, he is limited on options, but that shouldn't stop him from putting up better than average numbers, say 225Yds & 2 TDs (maybe even run one in for good measure). This is a hit or miss pick as he could very well disappoint as well. I lean more towards profitable, again relying on the Panthers history so far this season, giving up over 246 YDs a game so far. (Subsequently, this isn't looking good for "Cadillac" because they are 7th in rush defense.

RUNNING BACKS

Brian Leonard: With the rib injury to Bulger, knee injury for Holt, and the most recent groin injury to Steven Jackson, it is Leonards time to shine (See Leonard Gets First Gig! ). This kid is a north running bruiser who will plough through, stomp down, leap over, or stiff-arm you in the grill if he needs to. He is going to hurt somebody and it should equal some healthy fantasy points for whomever elects to start him.

Ronnie Brown: No, I wouldn't start him every week, but against the Oakland Raiders there shouldn't be a doubt. This defense has yet to get it's knees under itself. Don't expect what he did last week, but expect a fairly productive week of 85+ YDs and at least 1 TD.

Correll Buckhalter: If Brian Westbrook misses the game, I assure you Correll won't miss him. Buckhalter can run the ball, he can catch, and he can make some fantasy GM who wisely picked him up off free agency to start, if for nothing else, this week. Brian Westbrook he is not, but he has the potential to be among the top 10 runningbacks, statistically, this week as the NYG haven't proven they can truly stop the run.

Thomas Jones: For all those who drafted him, here is your big payday. Thomas faces a defense that can't get out of it's own way, nevermind get in the way of the offense. Thomas Jones will have a career day as Pennington and the boys should feast on the Buffalo defense. With Washington handling punts and kick returns, it appears that Jones is ready to be the work horse. 20+ touches for Jones typically equals 100 YDs and points on the board.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Bernard Berrian: This game is a great opportunity to get some worth out of picking him in the draft. With the emergence of Griese as the starter and the weak secondary of the Lions, expect both Berrian and Muhammad to put up relatively prosperous numbers. I see Berrian finishing with a TD, however, he may not see more than 60 YDs.

Derrick Mason: An oldie, but a goodie. Derrick is not going to revive his career by any means, but should capitalize on the weak defense of the Cleveland Browns. Last week showed that Boller will rely on his veteran leadership and excellent route-running, defense-acknowledging experience to put points on the board.

Andre Davis: With Andre Johnson injured, expect another Andre to sport a great portion of the workload. Andre Davis has never lived up to his potential. He had NFL star written all over his resume, unfortunetly, he has been religated to a third receiver in most offenses, including Houston. Expect him to be a go-to target for Schaub as they go to ATL and try and prey on the young, aggressive, and some-times dumb-witted (D. Hall???) actions that give teams great opportunity to light up the scoreboard and give some credence to his roster spot.

Joey Galloway: I realize that he is viewed by some as an elite player. Yes, he still has speed and can get behind a defender, but the offense is lead by Garcia and his short-passing vision of an offense. TB walks into a secondary that is good, not great, but good. The problem with Galloway is not Galloway at all, it is the falling star of Mike Clayton. Maurice Stovall will give some secondaries trouble though. Let's hope for Joey's sake that he does and that Garcia can make a target of Galloway all game long.

Kevin Curtis: PhI walks into NYG Stadium still out to prove something. Some consider this a no-brainer, but also considers Randel-El's monster walk more than an epiphany. With Curtis, it is different. Donavan showed two weeks ago that he wanted Kevin as his top receiver, last week just confirmed it. This is a solid start as the NYG secondary will surely have their hand's full with Curtis, Avant, Brown, and Smith, led by none other than McNabb...

TIGHT ENDS:

Ben Watson: Tom Brady loves him some Ben!!! Ben has been the target of his third checkdown for quite awhile now...finding the endzone the last two weeks. With Cincinnati sitting in a den, awaiting the lion to take it away from them, they will find that the take-aways won't be near as frequent as they have seen in recent weeks. I expect Ben to walk away with at least 50 yds and a TD, maybe more if they focus on Moss & Welker.

Chris Baker: I can't help myself by adding him in here again. He is finding a knack to be open from 10 Yds in. He isn't Gates, Heap, Shockey, or Gonzalez, but he is giving his best effort to get there someday. Pennington struggles with staying on his feet and will find Baker more useful as the season progresses. At least a TD. If you get more than 40 YDs out of him, that is a bonus.

Jason Witten: His stats will be on again, off again, but this week should be profitable for young Witten. There is no clear cut number two wider receiver with Terry Glenn out (and won't do much when he comes back), unless you count Patrick Crayton or Sam Hurd. Witten will get his fair share against a poor STL defense. He may eclipse 100 YDs and get a look or two at the endzone (if Barber isn't soaking it up).

Hope this helps to either start'em and sit your starter or pick'em up and start'em if you have available roster space (weak players deep in your teams depth charts). Tomorrow we will focus on Sit'em and who can you bring up from your depth chart to start and make an impact.

Statistocrat

Slick Move In Chi-Town...Brian "Griese"-d In!!!

2007-09-26T07:00:00.000-04:00

Listening to Lovie Smith over the past 2 years was starting to not only sound like a broken record, but now something "Saban-like"...

Rex Grossman is our quarterback... Rex Grossman is our quarterback... I am not taking the Alabama job...

I am not comparing the two in the sense of ability although both are talented coaches, it is simply that they had to make a decision that was best for their team... Lovie for the Bears, Nick for the Dolphins.

The news isn't exactly a shock. Rex has faced some sound defenses but his decision-making skills have deminished mostly due to hesitation in the pocket. He had lost the Gunslinger mentality and tried to replace it with game management skills. Unfortunately for Rex, that isn't his forte.

With this in mind comes the changing of the guard as Brian Griese, pro bowler, game manager, will take over the helm in Week 4. Long overdue, it is a decision that 99% of America will agree is the right choice (there are some Rex supporters, mostly with the last name Chapman.)

FANTASY IMPACT: To me this is big... to the offense of Chicago, this is huge! With the tandem of speedy Bernard Berrian and the large presence of Muhsin Muhammad, this team can and should produce more consistancy in the fantasy realm. In addition, the health of Greg Olsen being restored gives Brian an extremely talented check-down receiver (not that Desmond Clark isn't either, but will be used more as a typical TE, blocking and catching but anticipate Lovie to work Olsen like Indy is using Dallas Clark this year, more as a slot receiver.) Cedric Benson will enjoy Griese's game management skills because they won't be playing behind as much as they have, giving the passing offense more respect therefore opening more holes in the line to make some high yardage runs. Lastly, the Chicago Defense just became that much better because they will be able to pin their ears back, crash the offensive line's party and ball-hawk for turnovers, knowing that the offense will at worst be smart and keep them in the game. I still say pick-up a re-emerged Favre before considering Griese, but if you need a back-up, go for him.

Statistocrat

"Leonard Gets His First Gig"

2007-09-25T07:00:00.000-04:00

I am extremely excited about the news out of St. Louis last night regarding Brian Leonard and his opportunity to shine in the NFL.

When is the last time you heard of a caucasion athlete starting at the runningback position since Larry Czonka? (Allstot doesn't count as he was a fullback, not the same thing).

The news is devistating for many fantasy GMs around the globe as their stud runningback Steven Jackson has hit the D/L with a tear in his groin muscle (OUCH!).

I have Steven in two leagues and if you are like me, you insured that last night, he (Leonard) was tops on your waiver wire requests. If you are doing well in the league, you need to break out the rain gear and do a dance that he falls to you because you don't have to be truly saavy, fantasy-wise, to know enough to request him on your roster.

Unfortunately the St. Louis Rams simply look bad right now. I can't put my finger on it, but with all the skilled positions stacked, the onus must fall on the offensive line. Bulger doesn't have time to properly checkdown, Holt (knee) and Bruce (age) simply do not have enough time to get open and McMichael, to date, has simply disappeared of the fantasy "face of the earth".

FANTASY IMPACT: Expect that Leonard, with his raw talent and full head of steam approach, will actually fair better than Steven next week. Not because he is better, but because he is "itching" to get in there and prove he belongs in the NFL. He faces a fairly stout defense (DAL) this week but still should put up decent fantasy numbers

Statistocrat

Did you miss yesterday's blog? "It's MOSS-ome in N.E.."

"It's MOSS-ome in New England"

2007-09-24T23:00:00.000-04:00

All day long I hear from "haters" who say that it is inevitable that Randy Moss will eventually "lose it" and turn into the Randy Moss of old. I invest some time to defend the notion that this will not occur (and YES! I have drunk the "kool-aid").

I realize what happened between he and Duante, he and Oakland as a whole, and He vs. Patriot's training camp, however, I think there are five major reasons that he will turn a corner at New England.

1.) The precedent has already been set! (Bryan Cox, Corey Dillon) There have all ready been people who were deemed "selfish and team-breakers" that have come through the organization and changed their approach dramatically.

2.) Veteran Leadership sets the tone on both sides of the ball. There is a reason that Troy Brown is on the roster and it has nothing to do with his ability to play both sides of the ball. When it comes to leadership, Junior Seau, Rodney Harrison, Tedi Bruschi, Tom Brady, Richard Seymour, nor Bill Belicheck himself will not stand for his little tantrums of old.

3.) Too much bling on other's fingers. There are enough Super Bowl diamonds in that locker room, it could support the economy of most third world countries. Like the woman on Napoleon Dynamite who was "excited" about getting a model of a sailing ship when listening to Uncle Rico's sales pitch, Randy "wants that!!!!"

4.) He realizes that there is plenty of talent and competition that he doesn't stand out amongst the crowd...Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker (the hardest working white boy with a WR number), Kelley Washington, Troy Brown, Jabbar Gaffney, and Ben Watson. He has to work harder to get more time..

5.) Although he doesn't get 15 touches...with Tom Brady and arguably the best offensive line in the league, he doesn't have to. He gets 6 - 8 touches, has over 100 receiving yds and 5 TDs in three games.

Say what you will, maybe next year he reverts (call it the "Corey Dillon" syndrome), but for 2007-2008, there won't be any nuclear meltdowns.

Statistocrat

Week 4 ~ "Waiver Wire Watch"

2007-09-24T13:00:00.000-04:00

As the season continues, the "pickin's" are gettin' slimmer (or "slimmah" as we "nohthehnehs" say). As the majority of fantasy GMs are lining up their "wish list" on the waiver wire, here is a few to consider to add depth to your line-up. Some will be no-brainers, some will appear as though I don't have one... only time will tell which is true.

QUARTERBACKS:

Kelly Holcomb: It is obvious now that he is at the helm in Minnesota. With weapons of Williamson & Rice (So. Car.), and Chester and Peterson handling the ball, there is a chance that he can produce some great numbers when the match-up is right. He is a journeyman by trade, but the likes of Huard, Kitna, and Schaub make him a viable candidate for the bench. (No, I didn't include Harrington, Garcia, and Green because they have been starters in recent years)

Brett Favre: I can't believe I am doing this but when the man revives his career and it appears he has, you have to jump all over him. Pick him up, play 'em when the match-up is right and use it as bait for the incidents that occur throughout the season (I.E. the cheapshot by Vince Wilfork on J.P. Losman) He has put up stellar numbers to date and there should be no reason he is available, but in many leagues, he will be!

Kurt Warner: If you own Leinart, this should be a no-brainer. He looked exceptionally sharp. Maybe that hand of his is finally healed or maybe he just got lucky, what with the excitement and all. If you are in a two QB league and have some dolt riding shotgun because you didn't draft well, Warner showed he can still be counted on. His history of Arena ball lends itself to quick, concise, even damned near perfect accuracy when he can grip the ball properly.

RUNNINGBACKS:

DeShaun Foster: I predict he will continue to bolster more of the carries as the team struggles, with D. Williams handling kick/punt returns, minimizing his effectiveness in leagues that do not award them touchdown and return yardage. Foster, if healthy, will continue to see the ball and may even reclaim his late run of last season (Six games over 100 yds and a TD). If your bench is weak, pick him up... it can't hurt.

Kevin Jones: Sure he got only two touches and a TD, but he point is he did it in the red zone, not shying away from contact, but running full force at a stacked line to score. Like I said previously, we are about two weeks away from significant Kevin sightings. Grab'em if he's available, if nothing more, he makes a great trade bait to squeeze out two second tier players for a top tier player.

Rueben Droughns: He has seen 2 TDs in three weeks. That is enough to land on someone's roster. The Giants pulled a win out of their behinds and a lot had to do with late running by Ruben. Here is your chance to grab'em and store him tilll he becomes more valuable. Even when Jacobs comes back, it will be slow going at first and Droughns may prove fruitful as Derrick Ward ran a little flat yesterday.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Kevin Curtis: Should he be available? No. But the sheer fact that PHI fell on it's face the first two weeks may have prompted some GMs to drop 'em for the likes of Shaun McDonald or Brandon Marshall. Grab'em while he is hot (and Donovan's new favorite target).

Dwayne Bowe: There isn't much else to throw at out in KC. Bowe is just about it. Gonzalez had 96 yds, but Bowe got the call for the TD catch. Huard will continue to grow and count on him as Kennison is still running behind on health and when available will still be counted on as the third receiver (more of a check down). He is the hot ticket for the moment on a poor defense. The good news is the scheduled slackens in about 3 weeks.. If you can ride him on your bench, do it.

Nate Burleson: I hate this guy, but he appears worth it as Hasselback relies more and more on him (Branch is double-teamed every play, now). He will see his fair share of drops as it has been a historical problem for this receiver, but Hasselback keeps coming back for more. I expect that between Engram who is worse at "dropsies" than Burleson, and Branch's double coverage, that Burleson will have a big fantasy impact in weeks to come.

Greg Jennings: This guy should be available and is the likeliest to be picked up early and often. He has had flashes of excellence and with Driver healthy and burning secondaries, it is only a matter of time before Jennings name is called upon to deliver big blows for this offense. James Jones is still young and shouldn't interfere all too much with Jennings production, once he is 100 percent, he will seem like a free agent steal!!!

TIGHT ENDS:

Chris Baker: Am I finally getting through to you that this guy is ligit? He has as many TDs as the typical fantasy TE leaders, yet has done it with less yardage. When this offense really picks up, so will his participation. With the focus on Coles and Cotchery, Baker is gradually slipping into that "Ben Watson" role of dependable, available, and trustworthy on those short yardage attempts.

Bubba Franks: This all depends on how Favre continues with his season. With Driver and Jennings healthy(er), the running back tandem of Wynn and Jackson improving, and the simple heroics of Favre, Franks is shooting up the TE charts. Pick him up if you have a fantasy bus on your hands (So far, Vernon Davis, Randy McMichael, and Heath Miller)

Good luck, and happy hunting. May your waiver wire be profitable and your season be one filled with championship written all over it.

Statistocrat

Fantasy Football ~ Week 3: "Sit'em"

2007-09-21T22:30:00.000-04:00

Here are my picks for this week's "Sit'em" installment. Again, I preface that I am not here to pick the obvious players, but those that are borderline starters or have key match-ups that will affect their outcome (although, there are a few "big names" like Larry Johnson on Week 2 Sit'em, and a few "head-scratchers" [like Brett Favre on my Week 2 Start'em] that I throw out there from time to time)

This week should be no different. Many of you will disagree with me and that is okay.. it is what makes fantasy football and the blogging community so great!

QUARTERBACKS:

Tony Romo: I can hear it all now, your head twisting off of your neck as you read this name. No offense (I have him in several leagues), but Romo and the boys will struggle against a strong Chicago defense. Will the Cowboys win the game? Most likely. But the question here is, how will Tony do fantasy-wise. He may get close to 200 yds and maybe pop a TD, but I think that if you have a solid back-up with a more favorable match-up, you go with your bench QB.

Matt Schaub: I don't play him for two reasons. One, Andre Johnson is hurt, leaving him with lesser alternatives to put points on the board. Second, one name...Bob Sanders. I have nicknamed him "Bob the Nailer" (See Point of Impact, now a movied "Shooter"). This guy is simply ri-DONK-ulous. With the pass-rush of the Indy defense and the speed of the linebackers to keep the sidelines monitored, lastly, with "Bob the Nailer" coming in to destroy any screens or swing-passes out of the backfield, I don't see this as a promising day for Schaub.

Matt Leinart: Many things pop into my head, the first of which is the likes of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Then I turn to Larry Fitzgerald and his inability to go to the ball but instead waiting for the ball to come to him. The ever-growing but still lack-luster of an offensive line. Then the biggest impact. This is a team that wants to run to open the pass...in Baltimore? Not so much. Will Leinart be great? Maybe not. Will he be a top QB in a few years, quite possibly. Sunday will not be a career-defining moment, I assure you.

Derek Anderson: As Flavor Flav used to say, "Don't Believe The Hype". If you think you are some fantasy guru and found the steal of the century, sit down on a bench, pick up your chocolates and start telling stories, Forrest Gump, because you didn't. If he is your option for QB this week, you have given someone a carefree weekend...your opposing GM. Oakland was Numero Uno in passing defense categories last year.... not much has changed except a new coach, new life on offense, and a leaner, meaner defensive line.

RUNNINGBACKS:

Marion Barber III: He has always been hit or miss... This week, I think he will miss. The Chicago defense is based on stuff'em football, Sunday should be no exception. I just don't see him getting it done this week. He has not done well in his limited history against Chicago and expect the trend to continue.

Edgerrin James: He is on this list for the very same reason that Matt Leinart is... the Baltimore Defense. I line-covering, runningback-blanketing, ball-hawking front seven, I anticipate the youth of the offensive line wearing out and making short work of the Arizona running game. As a point of fact, I believe you may end up seeing more Marcel Shipp than Edge if the o-line breaks down too much.

DeShawn Wynn: He has surpassed Brandon Jackson on the depth charts. He will get a reality check this Sunday. Why? Great question, because he is facing Shawne and his "Merry-men" of bone-crushing defenders. This is the game that the Packer's fans come back to earth. I believe that last week was humiliating and a pact will be sworn (in blood, perhaps) that it won't happen again. When it is all over, Wynn will be beat up and Jackson will have shared half the load.

Thomas Jones: Coming off a leg injury is hard, trying to do it while Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas beat on you and your 2nd string QB is darn-near impossible. Thomas will have a fairly active game, 65-75 yds but I don't see a TD in his forecast this week. He will work up to speed, maybe week 5 to consider him confident in both legs and Clemens (unless "Gimpy" Pennington comes back).

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Calvin Johnson: I realize his capabilities and the potent offense that Detroit is mustering up, but do you think that Andy Reid is going to let his staff get down 0-3 and be out of the playoff chase after Week 3? Not likely. Philadelphia has a great secondary (is Brian Dawkins down for awhile? If so, this could change Calvin being on or off this list). If in fact Dawkins is down for the count, then start Calvin, but even if this is the case, I don't see him having that productive of a week.

Andre Johnson: The Houston team wants to keep Indy on their toes, if they can help it, they will place him as "questionable or at worst, doubtful", giving the Indy cover 2 something to think about. However, even if he did make it on the field, he is no better off physically than Pennington. The reason he is on here as that as of now, they haven't called him "out" of the game.

Marques Colston: Tennessee' D is for real, maybe not fantasy-wise, but in reality, they have a strong front seven who punishes the runners (sorry Deuce, Reggie). I expect that they are pumped about their showing against Indy and it will carry over to this week. I don't expect more than 65 yds out of Colston. Heck, Eric Johnson will see more work this week than Marques.

Darrell Jackson: He always has at least 2 weeks a year that he doesn't show up... Against Mike Tomlin's destructive 4-3 defense, I see this as one of them. The 49ers are going to learn a lot this week, one of them is how to get the ball in when there really isn't a chance. They will also learn how to lick their wounds, watch tape, and learn a ton about themselves and their offensive weaknesses. The defense will keep them in the game, but the offense just won't get it done... Arnez Battle will have a better fantasy week than Jackson.

TIGHT ENDS:

Alge Crumpler: He, single-handedly, misses Vick the most. He will see nothing at Carolina that resembles his former self with Vick at the helm. With a week or three, Leftwich up there, he may be more inclined to throw to Alge, but for now, expect Alge to be the 6th lineman more than not...

Vernon Davis: Vernon completes the SanFran Sit'em section as they face the Pittsburgh Steelers. He hasn't quite found his role in the offense (or at least Alex Smith hasn't). Gore will keep PIT busy, but there is too much speed and talent on their defense for Davis to get the best of him. If Gore can get them in scoring range, he may get a chance at a goalline attempt, but with the 4-3 of Tomlin's, I won't guarantee he gets a chance to catch it.

This week brings some big names to my Sit'em section of the blog. Like'em or leave'em, these are my opinions. Look for my Waiver Wire Watch blog on Monday night!

Statistocrat

Fantasy Football ~ Week 3: "Start'em"

2007-09-20T13:00:00.000-04:00

Here we go again, sports fans! For all of you that have been reading my blogs, you can agree that with the exception of a player a week (Week 1 ~ Randy Moss; Week 2 ~ Jerricho Cotchery), I have been fairly accurate when it comes to Start'em and Sit'em. Does that mean I am an expert, NO! But it does mean that at this point, hopefully, some validity can be placed on my opinions.

Today, I will venture into what I believe are the best Start'ems available. (Sub-note, I only talk about those that are typically "bench and bye-week" players, realizing you are all intelligent enough to know who your basic starting lineup should be).

QUARTERBACKS:

Jason Campbell: Here is Jason's first chance at big, BIG numbers. Too all those who pledge allegiance to Giants Nation, I am sorry that I am bashing your defense so much, but you can't disguise injuries in your starting line-up in the NFL. Randel El and Moss, Portis and Betts, and Chris Cooley, make for fantastic options as the 'Skins play host to the New York Football Giants. I anticipate Jason put up over 250 yds and 3 TDs, with one being a swing pass to the RB or a quick slant to Cooley early. Randel El will have a bigger day than Moss as they can't double team both due to Cooley's talent.

Josh McCown: I was right about Brett Favre getting the start last week and I believe (as long as he is healthy) that Josh is a great start this week. Cleveland is by far a great defense nor have they shown any signs that they are even "good" defense. With the speed of Curry & Porter and what appears to be a rejuvenated RB in LaMont Jordan (trying to make a name of himself while D. Rhodes serves his suspension), this looks very, very promising for all those GMs that picked him up early to replace your drafted backup QB.

Kyle Boller: I know, I am picking all the "big names", huh? If there was a chance for Boller to shine, it's Week 3. Arizona has shown that they are susceptible to just about anything on any given Sunday. If Kyle plays his cards right, this could be the week that the Cardinals show their defensive weakness in passing. Clayton looks 85-90% healthy and Heap is doing his typical thing out of the TE position. McGahee has shown that he can work within a north/south offense (sort of). If you have Tony Romo, J.P. Losman, this may be a good option as they face some tough Ds.

Jeff Garcia: He is proving his value, fantasy-wise, week by week. He has knack for keeping the chains moving, hitting receivers, and gaining the benefit from YAC statistics. He is up against the poor secondary of STL and should see a lot of opportunity. Expect 200 yds and at least 1 or 2 TDs. I anticipate that this will be one of his better fantasy weeks as the match-up suits his style of play.

RUNNINGBACKS:

Cedric Benson: Typically, I feel this guy is over-rated. He is doing better than he has in the past (43 attempts for 143 yds, 3.3 per carryso far). These aren't spectacular numbers by any stretch, but facing a defense that has struggled to stop the run (Dallas) allows me to give him the nod this week to start. For those who drafted him as your top RB, this is a no brainer, but in some leagues, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, and Benson have been Top 15 at best. Look for 100 yds and a TD from Cedric this week.

DeShaun Foster: I always have high hopes for DeShaun but his injury-plagued career has prevented me from drafting him. He faces an Atlanta defense that has struggled to define them. They have a great, young backfield and some pretty quick guys up front, but the line-backing corp. has let them down in recent history. Foster could see some productive numbers, especially through the air. I anticipate 80-85 yds on the ground with anywhere from 30-45 yds in the air. He should see the end zone at least once this coming Sunday.

Adrian Peterson (MIN): With Chester Taylor nursing a litany of injuries, here is yet another chance for the youngster to prove his worth. 100(run) & 50(receive) yds isn't entirely impossible against a KC defense that will most likely be playing from behind most of the game. With the instability of the QB (Tavaris Jackson), I anticipate that Adrian could see the end zone two times, one in the air, one on the ground. This could be another big fantasy week like he had on week one. [He was my first overall pick in my 3-player keeper league.)

Cadillac Williams: With the Garcia/Galloway connection developing and Cadillac apparently with his knees healthy, this could be a turning point for the young stud RB. Many a fantasy GMs, I believe, will feel rewarded for "taking the chance" on him. The hardest part was dismissing his 2006 performance (Hard, I know, but that is why I got him in the 4th/5th round in soooo many leagues this year). Jeff gives stability to an offense that has been anything but since their SB win the first year of "Chuckies" tenure in TB. STL better put up some serious points if they expect to walk away with a win. Williams easily rings up 100+ yds and a TD. He is also developing quite a knack for getting open for the screen and making serious headway towards the end zone.

Derrick Ward: Ahhh, Ward. I won't say it is easy to run against a revived WAS defense, I am simply saying that he will get the opportunity, what he does with it depends on how well Coughlin's his offensive attack. He may not touch 100 yds, but he will certainly rack up at least 50 receiving and have more than one shot at an end zone touchdown.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Vincent Jackson: He proved he could catch... He proved he could play... Can L.T. show up enough that Rivers can take more than 3 shots at this big, up-and-comer in the SD offense? GB is not a place you want to be if you are proto-typical running back; But L.T. is anything but that. I realize that Chicago and New England kept him in check. Did you expect anything less from arguably the number 1 and number 3 defense (Baltimore, 2nd)? Gates, L.T. AND V/Jax will get their chance to shine this week and redeem an abysmal start. I don't expect 100 yds, although it is possible, but I expect him to make some big plays, even a touchdown could be in his future. 80-90 yds is a reasonable expectation, a touchdown would be icing on the cake.

Jacoby Jones: Andre Johnson is hurt (NO!!! Really? He has never had an injury problem...NOT!) I stopped drafting A.J. because I could trade for him the day he got hurt... it may be the case, yet again. Jacoby will run alongside Kevin Walters and he should thank A.J. for the opportunity. Kevin Walters should be angry, because Jones has a chance to outshine him in a big way, even securing the number two slot right from under Walters nose. Schaub likes the kid, his speed, his willingness to go and get the ball. With Walters not scaring anyone, Jacoby will not have a huge game, but could be enough that he helps you to a "W".

Roydell Williams: It's official! We have found Vince Young's favorite receiver. If Roydell can stay on the field (injury-prone), he could be the biggest fantasy pick-up of the year. I have done exactly that in many, many of my leagues. He should flashes last year and should make a lot of Brandon Jones drafters upset if they don't jump on this kid fast. I anticipate many 0' 100 yd games with a TD in this kids future. Don't blink, he will be gone from the free agent pool soon enough. Go get'em, start'em, and look like a fantasy guru in the process.

Kevin Curtis: I realize Reggie Brown is the "go to guy", however, when it counted, Mc"Shame" threw it to Kevin each time. Jason Avant is another up-and-comer for the Eagles, but with Donavan still nursing that knee, he is less mobile and very inaccurate (wide open shot to Curtis and simply overthrew him.) If anyone is going to get a chance to catch the "ducks" that McNabb is throwing, Curtis seems to be the best bet (if you don't count Westbrook in the equation).

TIGHT ENDS:

Owen Daniels: Another receiver who has a chance to benefit (more, I believe) from the absence of A.J. Owen is the 2nd leading reciever on the team and just become a "can't-miss" start for now and the near future (who knows how long A.J. will milk THIS injury). They are up against a underrated IND defense (Bob Sanders is a "M-animal"!!!). Look for 65+ yds and a TD from this undervalued TE.

Chris Baker: Kellen Clemens will need that fail-safe check down... Chris is ready for that call. With Thomas Jones still chalked on the flightline and most defenses focused on the tandem of Coles and Cotchery, Baker is the heir apparent to a great many touches to come. I know the Miami front seven is tough...but that doesn't meant they are fast. If Eric is the "Man-genius" (I call him a crybaby snitch), they he takes advantage of this and really works Baker into the mix, early and often.

Due to the nature of fantasy football and the most common practice of grab a D/ST and Kicker in the last four picks, it really isn't worth going into details on these two positions. If you want my personal opinion, simply email me (click my name below).

Good Luck with your rosters, I hope that my outlook helps you to make those tough decisions of starters over backups and why you chose to do it.

STATISTOCRAT

"Dallas went fishing...landed a whale"

2007-09-19T10:42:00.000-04:00

The Cowboys defensive needs are two-fold; Plug the middle (run defense) and add speed to the secondary.

The Cowboy's have been fishing for these answers in the free-agent waters and in the past 24 hours, landed one heck of a whale. Terry "Tank" Johnson has agreed to join the Cowboys and work towards social redemption and career rejuvination.

There are a ton of jokes out their surrounding the Cowboy's past regarding the crimes and felonies, drug use, and assorted off-field antics, of which I will not go into... it is a route that many will travel and few will be seen in anything less than the typical media "stream" (to continue with my fishing analogy).

Look, I don't care who you are, you can always redeem yourself, it just doesn't happen for most in the same career and with the same bright future as Tank has. Why? Cause he has millions of dollars and the body that can stop a steam locomotive, that's why.

Once his suspension is up, the Cowboy's will need him to come up to speed as quick as possible. There is not doubt that he will be fairly fit (the proto-typical view of men working out in prison) and I assume that with this deal, they will forward some form or facet of a playbook to him... [maybe not, it might end up with some sort of gambling conspiracy on their hands if they do].

I don't think that Vick will have this same luxury (depending on sentence and suspension) which is crazy when you consider that Vick killed animals (not condoning it, just stating it simply) and Tank is involved with guns, drugs, and shootings, which kills people. What a crazy, left-wing world we live in... but THAT is another discussion all-together.

All in all, I think this is HUGE for the Cowboys who have post-season aspirations. If you can sure up that front seven, it will make up for some of the secondaries weaknesses (speed, mostly). With a strong front seven, it wears on an offense, decreases "clock management" of your opponents, and increases pressure on passing which decreases the potential for WRs to get behind the secondary... the opposing QB just won't have the time to step back, plant, and throw with great accuracy.

FANTASY IMPACT: This will make the Dallas D/ST a "sexy" pick for waiver wires, trades, and line-up decisions for the second half of the season. It also increases the offensive potential of the QB, RB tandem, WR & TE corp. to produce more....More time available, more points. More likely to be ahead, more calculated and calm. You get the picture. They still need to get someone on the sidelines (CB) to help disguise the lack of speed that Roy Williams has at the safety position...He hits like a linebacker, but runs like Maurice Clarett at the Combine.

Statistocrat

Atlanta "Left..wich" No Other Options...

2007-09-19T07:30:00.000-04:00

Okay... So the Joey Harrington experiment is coming to a close. I still think he is a solid quarterback, unfortunately, he forgets to let the ball go when there are, I don't know, six or seven bodies coming right at him from the opposite team.

Joey Harrington has been known as a "thinking quarterback". I don't disagree with it, it's just that there comes a time when you think and decide to read the progressions that you are good at, dump it off to the right guy or get rid of it... Not the case with Joey who overthinks and hesitates... which is career-death to NFL QBs, regardless of who you are and what type of talent you are surrounded with.

This is not to say that Leftwich doesn't have the same problem, including the additions of poor ankles and a fat belly to waddle around with (I mean really, your a freakin' NFL QB, could you at least put the effort and act like it... you do not have enough talent to make it on this fact alone.) and the offensive line isn't going to miraculously become better because he is there.

They struggle in all area's of offense, which is to be expected, as they get used to Petrino, his offense, his mind-set, and his way of doing things. They are rebuilding (now that Vick is gone... wouldn't have been the case otherwise). Let's not jump on the ATL band-wagon, but let's prepare for a late season surge that I believe would have come with Joey or now with the potential for Byron to come into the mix.

FANTASY IMPACT: Well, pick him up if you think this improves the ATL offense. Personally, the only one it will definitely impact is Crumpler as Leftwich will have to lean heavily on him, if in fact, he earns the starting job. Dunn and Norwood should pick up a head of steam either way, but with Leftwich, there is a little more mobility, potentially freezing up some, let me re-instate, "some" linebackers. This is a "wait and see" decision, not to be jumped on unless you have no one else to turn to for a back-up.

Statistocrat

Fantasy Baseball: "El Duque not okay"

2007-09-19T07:00:00.000-04:00

Just days after getting Pedro back from the D/L, increasing the chances of the Mets securing their first ring since the 86' series (where the Red Sox got "Bucknered"), "El Duque" has landed himself in D/L . Fitted for a "boot" to protect his ankle, it appears that he will not make another appearance during the regular season.

With a litany of over-achieving pitching veterans, the Mets find themselves in the same situation they have been in for the past few years, "pitching" woes.

Tom Glavine has done a fair job of holding down the forte while the tandem of young Johne Maine and a somewhat revived Oliver Perez continues to play "hit or miss". Mike Pelfrey will do will in the number 4 or 5 slot, but it is the tandem of Orlando and Pedro that the team has been resting their laurels on.

The hopes of the Metropolitan fans is that it isn't serious/long term and they can have him back before the playoffs begin (or at lteast become difficult.) If they can walk into the divisional playoffs with Glavine, Martinez, Hernandez, Maine, and Perez, they have a great chance of walking away with it in the N.L.

The Mets have a great lineup, both hitting for power and average, with speed on the base paths and a hunger to make it happen this year (There are some aging veterans at the plate as well ~ Carlos Delgado, Shawne Green, Moises Alou). The bullpen looks like they can get the job done, with Pelfrey, Mota, Sele, and Heilman all capable of the middle relief and or set-up man for firey Billy Wagner (no meltdowns please.).

All in all, I think that this could be an 11 year wait for the rematch of the Red Sox and The Mets. Being a Sox fan, I would love the chance for redemption... and finally lay to rest poor Billy Buckner and the drama he has withstood for years.

The Phillies are getting hotter by the day, only 1 1/2 games out of the division lead and the Mets have an identical record with San Diego, making the impact of the injury that much more of an impact. All you Mets fans, cross your fingers, eyes, arms, legs, toes if you can, and break out your voodoo dolls, cuz' you're gonna' need all the you can muster to get into the playoffs. Once you get there, your chances improve simply based on your "series" wins during the regular season with most of your competition.

Will the Mets do it to themselves again? (They need "El Duque") Are the Red Sox far behind? (Where is Manny?) Could both wind up out of the playoffs?

I don't it, but you never can tell with these teams.

Statistocrat