Fantasy Draft: Part 1 ~ "Over-rated"

As the season approaches at breakneck speed and last minute leagues are gathering to draft, I wanted to discuss the OVER-RATED, UNDER-RATED, and INJURED STEALS. There may be many who disagree with me, however, that is the great thing about blogs and opinions… they are there to meet the need of the opinionated and egocentric (I probably meet both qualities).

Over three posts, I plan to list topics that I think may help you decide on last minute draft strategies as well as key "post-draft" waiver-wire decisions. (This can also help on early season trades, utilizing these players as key pick-ups when going for the two-for-one trade specials). The first is the players that are over-rated based on the top 5 fantasy website’s drafting orders as well as when they are typically picked.

QB ~ Jay Cutler: I have seen where each of the manager fantasy sites place this player in order of pre-draft rankings. I believe that he has a great target in Javon Walker and if healthy, Brandon Marshall, with Stokley getting his chances as well. The offensive line will be great (illegal chop-blocks) which will give a 4th rate RB a chance. However, I believe that he is still inexperienced and will be hit or miss from week to week, depending on the home vs. away, defense on vs. defense off (injury/age). I put Phillip Rivers ahead of him, any day of the week.

QB ~ Jon Kitna: I realize he has Calvin Johnson & Roy Williams, but when has there not be more than one stud WR on this squad (or at least alleged studs)? The bottom-line is this… average defense, extremely poor offensive line and two RBs each with a history of injury problems (Kevin Jones, Tatum Bell). There will be no true running game because the o-line simply isn’t talented enough. He will "get his", but it will not be to the magnitude that his ranking assumes or the Detroit fans want to believe.

QB ~ Vince Young: There is sooooo much hype about him, but the bottom-line is that they do not have a significant back to take the linebackers off of their line of vision, hampering his "scramble-ability". The o-line is suspect. The wide receiver corp. has either drastically under-achieved or they simply aren’t that good. The TE position is okay, especially when Ben Troupe comes back, but they appear to be a little overmatched by their schedule and Young will not be as great as they think he will…YET. I expect him to be more of a factor in 08’. He is a great QB, but is getting drafted WAY too early for my taste.

RB ~ Marion Barber III: Bill Parcells is gone. With that comes the equal shares of goal-line touches that once was owned solely by Barber. I believe he will still be a great fantasy RB (3rd on roster) good for spot starts when the defense is porous to the run or Jones gets hurt (good potential, somewhat injury prone, not long-term, but nicks and bruises). He will go earlier than he should…I would rather get a high-powered QB and focus on Julius Jones 2 to 3 rounds later (Jones will get more yards, a few lest TDS).

RB ~ Maurice Jones-Drew: Just like his parents share his last name, there will be a "committee approach" to the RB duties in Jacksonville. Expect MJD to get more touches than Taylor between the twenties (something like 65/35). The unfortunate thing is that Greg Jones and the goal-line touches will undermine both. He is a mammoth who can push through crowds and in all likelihood while see the majority of those touches. In addition, the arrival of Garrard at the QB position, with his mobility, means that he will run a few in himself, limiting even further MJD and his point potential.

RB ~ Travis Henry: I realize he is in Denver, home of the "make an RB out of two legs, two arms, and a pulse, however, he is so injury-prone that it is an inevitability that he will end up on the sidelines for a stint on the I/R. I refuse to draft him simply because his track record shows this (Buffalo, Tennessee). With Selvin Young creeping up the depth charts, it is intelligent that if you draft Henry, you draft Young later, as a back up, because you will need him.

RB ~ Ronnie Brown: Many factors play into my decision to add him to this list. First, no offensive-line. Second, the emergence of Jesse Chatham. Third, he has no track record that indicates that he is worthy of drafted as a top tier back, which is where people are drafting him. The news is he is in jeopardy of losing his starting position. Although I don’t believe that, I do believe his year and health are in jeopardy due to the lack of an o-line and no real deep threat at WR to spread out the offense and stop them from throwing 10 in the box.

WR ~ Randy Moss: LOOK!! I am a Patriots homer, through and through, but I am not impressed with a guy who comes to camp and pulls a hammie on the first day. Not until he proves himself, will I rank him in the top 20 WRs…there are simply too many other options at this point. Which brings me to my next point, too many options! With Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, and in the backfield (Evans, Faulk, Morris, Maroney) that all have hands, I just don’t buy that he will see more than 1,000 yards and 6 TDs. How that will affect him and his ego is another factor to consider. I believe that Stallworth will have a better year, regardless of where people are ranking him.

WR ~ Marvin Harrison: I am sorry all you who drafted him earlier than round 3 or 4. Marvin Harrison will take a step back statistically and therefore fantasy-wise. Reggie Wayne is the new "Marvin Harrison" for most touches…however, the Manning/Harrison connection will prevail on key situations unless the double him in which Reggie Wayne is the best check-down receiver in the league. Expect Addai to steal some touches through the pass as well as up and comer (Harrison replacement Anthony Gonzalez). Bottom-line, there are 10 guys better than him..."Fantasy-wise".

WR ~ Marques Colston: For those who made the early waiver-wire pick-up of the WR/TE, I applaud you. I, for one, didn’t buy into him till it was too late. BUT…and it is a definitive but… the league has had a year to watch film and study Sean Payton’s offense. In doing so, they are going to be far more careful when addressing the coverage of Colston. Couple that with an early season ankle injury and you have the making of a fantasy fall-out, regarding expectations. With the pound’em down the throat approach of McCallister and Reggie Bush doing what only he can do out of the backfield, there will still be opportunity to stretch the field. Unfortunately for fantasy owners who took him as the first overall WR for their team, you are going to witness the "Who’s-your-mama" theory, great running game, solid QB, double coverage, and a 2nd tier wide receiver receiving the majority of the benefit. Like T.J. Housh, look for Devery Henderson to be a great fantasy sleeper.

TE ~ Tony Gonzalez: Yes, he will pass the all-time record for TDs, even yards at the position, but he is no longer the No. 1 or even No. 2 fantasy TE. I believe that those who draft him early will be disappointed, more than any other year… Yes, there is no other WR besides Eddie "lost a step" Kennison, but to say that an average o-line, a RB who will take 2 –3 weeks to really ramp it up, and a QB that has been a perennial back-up will increase the likelihood of Tony’s success is far-fetched. I believe that Heap, Shockey, and Gates will have better seasons with Vernon Davis posed to do so as well.

There are several more (Santana Moss, Chris Chambers, Brandon Jacobs, Carnell Williams, ) but I believe these are the ones that are most often drafted early, based solely on a one year performance without looking at present depth charts. The other side would be name recognition, that gets newer GMs and those who do not due their homework, every time on draft day.

Hope you find this insightful and useful in your upcoming season.

Statistocrat

ON DECK: UNDER-RATED ~ Depth Chart additions & those to reach early for.