Week 5 ~ "Start'em"

How quick is Week 5 coming? To be a fourth of the way through the season is both exciting and depressing. I can't get enough of this game. As we look at this week's match-ups, I will focus on the second-tier players to hone in on during your Sunday morning decisions.

Bye-Week Teams: Cincinnati, Oakland, Minnesota, Philadelphia

There are a lot of good players riding the pine this week including Carson Palmer, T.J. Housh, Ocho Cinco, Donavan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, etc...

With that, the difference between a win or a loss is the right decision regarding your bench players. Here are several players at key positions that I think should be considered for starting, including my reasons why.

QUARTERBACKS:

David Carr: The kids IS good. Sure he looked awfull against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but in the past two weeks, the Buccaneers defense has transformed itself into something worth considering as a starting D/ST. Additionally, he is in a new offense and hasn't had as much time with the starting line-up as is needed to be successful. The line let him down last week but they are facing a divisional opponent, one which is 0-3 overall and 0-1 at home. I don't see this changing too much as it appears that the Saints have come back down to earth and Brees is throwing ducks out on the gridiron. I think that with Steve Smith, there is always a chance for the QB to be effective.

Trent Green: He has 5 TDs and 7 INTs, but is averaging 245 YDs a game. The Texans were exposed last week by the Falcons and I anticipate a crafty Cam Cameron to come with his guns loaded. Chambers has been fairly productive with a healthy Marty Booker sitting across from him. Ronnie Brown looks like he is on the up-swing and ready to put up another great showing against a defense that again, was exposed last Sunday. Green is saavy and should be able to capitalize on Sunday, barring the offensive line completely blowing up.

Joey Harrington: He looks....comfortable... I can say that I thought this would be a good fit, but the production that he is getting out of the offense, win or lose, in the past three weeks, looks VERY optimistic for the rest of the year. Jenkins, White, and Crumpler are getting the job done, Dunn looks healthy and Norwood is a great back-up and return man. The difference in the game will be Joey's ability to keep tabs on Keith "I love interceptions" Bullock (3 last week). The defense of TEN is built around up front pressure and turn-over focused LBs and secondaries (like the Bengals, except they actually try to be a team).

Gus Frerotte: He is like Brad Johnson. He shows up due to injury and for about 6 - 8 games, looks great, then he has a meltdown. He won't be in the helm that long and against the Arizona Cardinals, he will surely get his chances to put up numbers. If you don't have him, pick him up, dropping your weakest link and/or back-up QB, then run with him during the bye-week or during injury-laiden weeks where your starter is down.

Steve McNair: He looked terrible last week unless you count passing YDs. I expect a different outcome now that they are facing a team (SanFran) that will be playing from behind most of the day (my opinion) and most likely worn out by late third quarter. Trent Dilfer is a "manager" on the field, but simply looks like a lost lamb out on the field. McNair will have his way, likely moving over 300 YDs and at least 2 TDs, maybe an additional one on the ground.

RUNNINGBACKS:

Sammy Morris: Although the injury report shows that Maroney is "ready to go", don't expect him to be a huge part of the offense. The Patriots understand the "long haul" of an NFL season and will most likely work Maroney in slowly. I don't think Sammy gets more than 15 touches with maybe 70-85 YDs, but believe he will get more than one chance from 10 YDs in to put up TDs. The Patriots are an awesome team, but unless you are Tom Brady or Randy Moss, they are always going to have spotty fantasy starters due to their willingness to share the workload. In this case, Kevin Faulk & Lawrence Maroney will cut into Morris' opportunity as well as Heath Evans who has been known to bull his way into the end-zone.

DeShaun Foster: He is usually good for at least 4-5 great games a year. Against a defense that is poor in the front seven, this should be his chance. The Saints will focus on the run due to the recent insertion of David Carr, but the offense, including Steve Smith and TE Jeff King have shown that they need some respect. I expect either a slow start and a waning second half or blowing up the d-line early and having 75-80 YDs and 1 TD before half-time... either way, I believe he gets 100+ YDs and 1 TD.

Kevin Jones: Like I have said in recent weeks (especially week 3 where I predicted 2-3 weeks before he cut into Tatum Bell's statistics), Kevin Jones is taking over the important downs for Detroit. Jones is a better pass blocker than Tatum and stronger (if not injured) to pound the line of scrimmage and get that short yardage needed to keep the defense honest and give one of the best WR Corp.s in the NFL to get open and "do what they do". Kevin has had a TD in the past two weeks, with his yardage going from 3 attempts for 5 YDs rushing to 10 attempts for 38 YDs rushing. I anticipate anywhere from 15 - 18 touches with approximately 50 YDs and another TD.

Earnest Graham: In my most recent blog, "You make the Call ~ Graham or Pittman", I posed the question, who to start for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After reviewing everything, I believe that Graham gets the goal-line touches unless Pittman breaks something from about 20+ YDs out. Pittman will see the yardage, Graham the TDs. In most leagues, it is advantageous to go with the TD guy than the yardage guy. The rumors of the Mewelde Moore trade with Minnesota are short lived as the Vikings are asking for a first day draft pick (1 - 3 rd). I don't think he is that good. Do they want him to start? NO. Actually, I think they want him to return kicks and turn Graham into "their guy".

Brandon Jacobs: Derrick Ward has done well, but as a rule, starters don't lose their job due to injury. Ward has done exceptionally and has earned himself a long term position with the team. I believe that Jacobs will get the call with short yardage and goal situations for this week, eventually taking over full control of 1st and 2nd downs with Ward acting as a scat back for 3rd downs. Jacobs will see approximately 10-15 touches and get approximately 50 YDs but again, should put up 6 with a TD.

Selvin Young: I love this kid and if you are in a keeper league, grab'em. Travis Henry has more injuries than Colorado Springs E.R. His NFL career has been plagued by ankle injuries and Young is the next in line (sorry Mike Bell). Young will get 3rd down duties against San Diego, trying to expose the linebackers who have to back-off due to the poor play of their secondaries. In addition, the SD defense is not the same without Wade Phillips. Young has had at least one break out play that jacks up his fantasy value each week. Don't expect this week to be any different.

Brian Leonard: He put up 78 YDs in his debut last Sunday. With a QB that at least has all his ribs in tact and a history to show he can deliver the ball, I believe that Brian grabs 100 YDs and 1 TD. This is a shaky start, but if there aren't many resources on your bench, you should feel comfortable that Brian will give you something to keep your match-up competitive.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Santonio Holmes: He is quickly living up to his draft pick status. He has become the number 1 wide reciever while Hines Ward recovers from his most recent injury situation. Holmes has been a pleasant surprise as he was generally drafted after the 10th round of most fantasy drafts. Although the tandem of Spaeth & Miller also benefit from Ward's absense or limited presence, it is Holmes who ultimately will be the benefactor of many looks from Big Ben. To not start him would simply be a shame at the least...

Jerricho Cotchery: Jerricho is the guy who will ease up and turn in on hook, short slants, and outs, becoming one of the best check-down receivers in the NFL. I expect that the NYG won't let up as they face their in-state, in-stadium rivals, punishing Chad Pennington early and often. Someone has to be ready to alter their route for the blitz and Cotchery is your man. He is going to see at least 100 YDs, the question always is, will he get the chance to put 6 on the board.

Roddy White:I can't leave him off the blog, especially with Harrington all ready listed. White has quickly become the most reliable WR on the team. His recent stardom has elevated the opportunities for Michael Jenkins as well. White will definitely get enough catches to post 100 YDS, but the real question, like Cotchery, is whether he puts the ball in the end-zone. He is a great Week 5 replacement as the Falcons face the Titans and their "aggressive" approach to the secondary... The Titans can look great, but their approach can also make them look very, very bad. For White's sake, I hope it's the latter.

Dwayne Bowe: I realize what team he plays on and who is throwing to him, but tell that to the Chiefs. Bowe has had a TD in the last three games. With L.J. growing into season-speed, I can only expect Bowe to become an even bigger threat... Gonzalez and L.J. keep most defenses fairly honest, focusing on the QB rush to disrupt the pass. Bowe, although a rookie, has shown enough saavy to be open when the blitz comes and make a big impact on the outcome of each drive.

Brandon Marshall: With Javon Walker nursing a bum knee, it is Marshall who is becoming the go-to-gue for young Jay Cutler. The offense is built around the run. With Henry & Young handling the rock, you can be sure that they should have clock on their side. Marshall has shown the ability to run crisp routes, get up there for jump balls (6-4, 230 lbs.), and get behind the defender as they "feel" for the running game, getting burned more than once in a game.

Greg Jennings: He isn't practicing until Friday and that worries some of the fantasy GMs out there. But should it? He hasn't practiced the last two weeks and look what he has done...125 YDs and 2 TDs. Green Bay is facing a Chicago defense that is amazing in the front seven, but hasn't exactly gotten it done in the secondary. With Driver, Jennings, and young James Jones, this could prove to be another good day for Jennings.

TIGHT ENDS:

Owen Daniels: Daniels will face a tough secondary with MIA, but that doesn't necessarily affect him in a poor manner. The truth is, he should have a better day as the MLB Zach Thomas isn't available to run him over all day, making Daniels a key short/mid-range pass down the middle. Daniels should have his best game of the year to date. Doubles will go Andre Davis' way leaving the Weak side CB to play man to man. The Texans like to blitz from the SS position, giving a lot of open field and potential for Daniels to "do his thing" on Sunday.

Randy McMichael: Frerotte will have to rely on McMichael to help him out, not only with the offensive line (NOT his forte), but more importantly, as a sturdy checkdown receiver. He should see 7 - 9 receiving opportunities this week as they face the 'Zona defense...what McMichael does with these, especially yards after first contact will determine how the offense progresses and obviously, how well he will do for your fantasy line-up.

Jeff King: This second year TE is slowly making a name for himself down in Carolina. The Panthers have never really had a pass-catching TE in their system, relying more on the TE to block than to catch. This change will increase as he will be used as a check-down receiver for QB David Carr. I fully anticipate no less than 5 attempts, but more likely 7 - 9, giving him a chance at anywhere from 70-90 YDs (avg 10.3 per reception). I consider him a great sleeper TE for not only this week, but for those to come.

Those are my second-tier picks for this edition of "Start'em". I hope that the information proves usefull and that it produces more "W"s than "L"s....

Statistocrat