MLB: Draft Day Diagnosis: Catchers

Join Screaming Sports Staff Writer, Statistocrat, as he evaluates each position, offering you his “Musts”, “Trusts”, and “Busts”. The key to a successful draft is drafting as many musts at each position that you can, avoiding potential busts, and relying on depth through consistency, or “trusts”.



MUSTS

1. Victor Martinez (CLE): Easily the standout in this category. There is no reason to assume that he does not match his previous three years output, averaging 24 homeruns, 82 runs, and 105 runs batted in. Add in the emergence of Kelly Shoppach and the number of games he played at 1B last year, he should qualify as C/1B/CI.

2. Russell Martin (LAD): This is the best catcher in 5X5 rotisserie league because of his .280 batting average, 80-80 potential runs and runs batted in, and 20+ steal potential. Personally I believe that he will be the best catcher in ’08. He has clearly demonstrated consistency where Victor Martinez puts up his statistics in spurts.

3. Brian McCann (ATL): Although Joe Mauer is rated higher in most “experts” rankings, it is McCann that has the higher ceiling in 2008. Mauer is injury-prone and does not have as much protection in the line-up as McCann does. Consider McCann as a solid fantasy starter that you can grab in the mid-rounds of your draft. With Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira, and Jeff Francoeur in the line-up, McCann has a great chance to improve on his runs/runs batted in while resuming the power that he displayed in his debut season and the second half of 2007.

4. Joe Mauer (MIN): With 8 – 10 steals, a batting average that will hover around .300 and between 70-80 in runs and runs batted in, he is clearly among the tops in the league; however, with the Twins line-up in the middle of a huge transition, he will be limited in “consistency”. He is a guarantee to be drafted before McCann and some managers will value Mauer over Martin.

5. Jorge Posada (NYY): I do not see another 24-90-90 season out of Posada, but he has been the most consistent catcher in the league since 2000. Posada does have the benefit of a line-up that most never has the opportunity to play with in their career; therefore, he still holds solid fantasy value. He will go early and often in drafts once the “catcher run” begins…but hold strong, realizing that there are more quality catchers that are mid-tier (“trusts”) that can give you approximately the same production so that you can focus on more important positions like depth at the corners (1B/3B), solid outfielder depth, and excellent pitchers that are considered mid-tier, however, extremely productive in the long run.


BUSTS

1. Ramon Hernandez (BAL): Long gone are the productive days that Hernandez had in Oakland. With an insufferable line-up, and limited opportunity, Hernandez will be taken with the hopes of comparing to his previous statistics, prior to his arrival in Baltimore, but do not consider him unless you have focused on every other position and you are deciding between Ramon and players without little to any big league experience.

2. Paul Lo Duca (WAS): Here is another player that has lost his viability in the fantasy world due to a transition to a team that has little to no opportunity to produce offensive fantasy statistics. Lo Duca will produce between 50-60 runs/runs batted in and might even lose 10 points on his average as he will surely feel the pressure to produce runs to compensate for the lack of depth on the Nationals line-up.

3. Michael Barrett (SD): Michael did see a surge in production once traded to San Diego, partly due to the environment in the White Sox dugout. The problem is that he has moved to a pitchers park and San Diego has shown long droughts of offensive production for the past few seasons. Someone will think about the Michael Barrett of old and not the present-day Barrett… Do not be that fantasy manager.

4. Bengie Molina (SF): Bengie was amazing when he played in a potent Angel’s offense. When he signed with the Toronto Blue Jays, both the Blue Jays organization and many fantasy managers thought that production would follow. Now entering his second season as a Giant, he have to evaluate what he produced last year and call that the expectations. Look for less than 50 runs, no more than 75 runs batted in, and a handful of homeruns, say…”15”.

5. Ivan Rodriguez (DET): It looks to good to be true! Solid line-up, deep pitching, and no real depth at the catching position in Detroit. With all this, people will still expect more out of Pudge than he can offer at this point in his career. Like Gary Sheffield, he is on the decline, literally “adding insult to injury”. Rodriguez will have spurts that will make some fantasy managers happy, but do not look to Pudge other than a back-up, using him when he has one of his streaks.



TRUSTS

1. Kenji Johjima (SEA): You can consistently expect a .280 batting average, 50 runs, and 65 runs batted in from Kenji. He has increased his homerun total every year so expect a small spike in dingers this year, likely going from his career average of 16 to 20. With a player like Johjima, you can relax on draft day, realizing that you can grab him after two thirds of the draft has expired and everyone has overreached for some of the other mid-tier catchers, musts, and busts.

2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (TEX): Jarrod was part of the blockbuster “Mark Teixeira” trade between the Rangers and the Braves in ’07. To say that this player has a higher ceiling now that he is in a hitter’s park is an understatement. The additional opportunity to potentially play 1B adds even more value to a player that has the potential to produce 25-80-80 in his first full season.

3. Jason Varitek (BOS): Considered to be one of the best students of the game, Jason had a particularly forgettable season in 2007. (World Series Championships have little to do with the fantasy world). What can be said for Jason is his statistical consistency. You know what you get when you draft ‘Tek’; 50-60 runs, 18-20 homeruns, 65-70 runs batted in, and a .280 batting average. When you see value at other positions, go to them first, realizing that a consistent catcher like Jason will be available well into the 20th rounds of a fantasy baseball draft.

4. A.J. Pierzynski (CWS): You do not have to like the player to draft and start him in your line-up. He will ruffle feathers of opponents and teammates alike, but the one thing you can guarantee from A.J., 50-50 in runs/runs batted in, and a handful of homeruns (15-18). He is consistent enough at the plate to guarantee over .278 in batting average considering he is a career .284. Basically, Pierzynski will not hurt you in any fantasy category and will bring enough to the table to keep your team viable in almost any fantasy format.

5. Chris Snyder (ARI): For a player that only had 384 at bats in 2007, this catcher impressed me. I believe this is the best value at catcher if you are not ultimately concerned with huge statistics out of the catcher’s position. Snyder hit an impressive 13 homeruns, 40 runs batted in and 37 runs on a team were pitching, not offense, carried this team to the playoffs. Like Conor Jackson, Chris Young, Justin Upton, and Stephen Drew, Chris is looking to have a solid season in 2008. My prediction is that Snyder knocks in 20-22 homeruns, 50 runs, 65-70 runs batted in, and a batting average of .265 to .272. Is that a bold prediction, only time will tell.