MLB Hot Stove: Toronto Blue Jays

Can Vernon Wells return to his 30-100-100 form in 2008?





Roster Decisions



Recently Departed



With 2007 and all it’s hopes of contending for an American League East gone, the Blue Jays and J.P. Ricciardi are in the process of preparing for another run against the two of the highest payrolls in baseball, the Yankees and the Red Sox.

There were several players that left the organization, most of which were signed by other teams, however, most of which are not considered to have any real impact on the team or fantasy-wise. UT Howie Clark was signed November 22, 2007 by the Minnesota Twins, getting the invite to spring training; 40-man roster OF John-Ford Griffin was signed and invited to the Los Angeles Dodgers spring training; and 3B Ryan Roberts was signed by Texas, also getting a spring training invitation.

The only real player of note comes via a recent trade. Troy Glaus came to the Blue Jays with hopes of reviving his career and establishing himself as an all-star caliber third baseman.


Unfortunately, as has been the case over the past three years, Glaus had a big pop at the plate, little to do in the batting average department, and invested a lengthy amount of time on the disabled list.


Sticking Around



The team made only two attempts to invest in departing players. The ageless Matt Stairs (OF) was re-signed to a two-year deal on November 2, 2007. Matt had a career year with similar statistical output as he did in 2003 when he was with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The only other player to receive an invite back the team, in the form of a spring trainee invitation, was C Sal Fasano on December 14, 2007. Most of the work to rebuild the team came via free agency.


New Additions

Knowing that they needed to add depth to the line-up, the Toronto Blue Jays have made several roster moves to try and solidify their offense, bringing more consistency. Although Aaron Hill did a great job filling in at both shortstop and second base, it was apparent that he was more comfortable playing second base. To demonstrate their desire for more consistency in the line-up, the team signed 2006 World Series MVP SS David Eckstein to a one-year deal.


They also added an excellent utility infielder Marco Scutaro. Marco spent the better part of four years in the Oakland organization. Although he does not bring tremendous speed or power, what he does is bring more versatility to the infield, allowing players to rest without losing anything too significant in the line-up.


The biggest splash they have made this off-season occurred when the team announced the 3B switch with the St. Louis Cardinals. The team, seeking more consistency at the plate, opted for limited bat strength for better average and on-base percentage, acquiring perennial gold glove 3B Scott Rolen. The Cardinals needed a big bat and the Blue Jays needed consistency. This deal appears as a “win-win” for both organizations. Each upgraded their line-up in a way that makes them more viable and each traded away an injury-prone third baseman.


Down on the Farm



The Blue Jays have several talented young prospects in their organization; however, the most prominent of them have all ready made the leap to the big leagues in 2007. In his first full season, Dustin McGowan accrued some impressive numbers, 12 wins, giving 169 innings and 144 strikeouts. Rookie SP Jesse Litsch also put together some very promising starts. If it had not been for the lack of run production out of their batting line-up, there would have been more opportunity to post wins, allowing this young staff to gain more confidence as the season went on.

Another fine addition to the major league team was 2B/SS Aaron Hill. Hill made a big splash in the fantasy world in 2007. Although technically in his third season, Aaron went the common practice of being called up and down throughout the 2005 and 2006 season. In ’07, however, he secured himself as a starter and responded by pushing out 17 homeruns, 87 runs and 78 runs batted in. Hill, batting an impressive .291 was one of the bright spots outside of the young pitchers that established themselves.


Many of the prospects are at least a year away. The organization’s top prospect is OF Travis Snider. Snider spent the majority of the year playing for the Lansing Lugnuts. Travis reeled off 16 homeruns, 93 runs batted in, and 72 runs all while batting .313. Although he stole only 3 bases, his 7 triples and 35 doubles surely lend itself to great power potential.


Beyond Travis, there are two stand out prospects that are on many teams radars, that being 3B Kevin Ahrens, selected 16th overall in 2007. The organization has prided itself on its ability to evaluate talent. This is never more evident than when we turn our thoughts on LHP Brett Cecil. This flame-throwing closer is surely making a name for him in the organization. This kid is all ready throwing a slider that is considered to be major league quality. With the pitching situation in desperate need of a face lift, Cecil is the most likely to make the roster.


Where to Next?



This team is posed for a third place finish in the division as they will not be able to hang with the Red Sox and Yankees all season, however, they very well could land the second spot, with the either the Yankees or the Sox taking the other position. The Tigers, Angels, Indians, Yankees, and Red Sox are more than likely to be in the top five teams in the American League, however, the White Sox, Blue Jays, and Twins will all be competitive enough to make a “National League”-like run for the playoffs.

There are a lot of “ifs” associated with this thinking, starting with the health of Scott Rolens (Can he stay healthy?), the return of B.J. Ryan (absolute steal in the draft if he makes it to spring training), and whether Vernon Wells can bounce back to his previous three years worth of statistical output. The team’s weakest positions are the middle relief, with young setup man Jeremy Accardo, Casey Jannsen, and the veteran Scott Downs expected to shoulder the bulk of the load, as well as the catcher. Veteran Greg Zaun will likely see the majority of playing time with Sal Fasano will likely backing him up, receiving more time than most back-ups due to the age of Zaun.

The last “if” is a big one. Can A.J. Burnett stay healthy? When he is, he is one hard-throwing right hander…when he is not; he is one of the most expensive paperweights on the payroll. I expect Aaron Hill to continue to produce homeruns, increasing to the early to mid-twenties, along with at least 90 runs batted in, making him one of the best draft day sleepers at the second base position.


The infield is wrought with solid fielders. Eckstein and Rolens will yield high-percentage fielding average. Hill should see a decrease in errors as he grows accustomed to learning the fielding routines of one position and Overbay will continue to be better than average.

Will this team stay healthy and consistent enough to make a run for the playoffs? Only time will tell.

Fantasy Corner



3 Fantasy Keepers:



1. Alex Rios – Watch out, ladies and gentlemen! This five-tool athlete turns the magic “27” next month. Anyone who is involved with fantasy baseball is aware of what that means to a productive baseball player. Alex is primed for a 30-100-100-25 year. With Rolens, Wells, Stairs, and Overbay around him in the line-up, especially with Eckstein in front of him, this should be a career year for Rios. Draft him early and often, regardless of what the “experts” say.

2. Dustin McGowan – Towards the end of the season, Dustin actually got stronger, including a complete game, 9 strikeout effort against the eventual World Series Champion Boston Red Sox. McGowan had his magic “27” year last year but that should have no affect on where to project this kid over the coming years. He will be well worth the value as a keeper in any league.

3. Jeremy Accardo – Filling in for the injured B.J. Rayn, Jeremy amassed 30 saves, 4 wins, an ERA of 2.14, and struck out 127. Whether Ryan is ready to go or not, Jeremy will play a big part in the success of this ball club for years to come. His WHIP will improve as it did throughout the ’07 season, showing that he is a value at the relief pitcher position (once all the top closers are gone, of course.)




3 Fantasy Sleepers



1. Vernon Wells – Like Andruw Jones, Wells had career lows in almost every statistical category. With the “short term” memory of most fantasy GMs, it is imperative that you draft him where YOU think his value is, not where the books/magazines you poor over prior to your draft say his value is. I believe that he will post his typical 80+ runs, 30+ homeruns, and 100+ RBI. He will also nab you 15-20 steals, raising his batting average in line with his previous marks (.280+), making him an ideal sleeper in a 5X5 league.

2. Aaron Hill – Although he may not qualify for both SS & 2B as he did in ’07, the truth be told, with a .290 batting average, 18-20 homeruns, 80-80 or better potential at runs-runs batted in, and is fast enough to swipe 10-12 bases, he will be an absolute bargain towards the tail end of your draft.

3. Scott Rolen – Yes, he is likely to only play in 140 games…and Yes, he did have to significant injuries in the past five years. BUT… the injuries have never been back to back and, he still can knock out 25 homeruns, give you near 90-90 production at runs/runs batted in, and will give you a boost at the batting average, having a lifetime average of .280+.

Next: MLB Hot Stove: Baltimore Orioles, Sunday, January 20, 2007

Previous MLB Hot Stove Articles:
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox

MLB Hot Stove: New York Yankees

Can Chien-Ming Wang become a 20-game winner? (NYTIMES.COM)

Roster Decisions

Recently Departed

It appears that the New York Yankees are up to their old antics, but it is not necessarily the same. As the new year approaches, the team is once again a turn-style for incoming and departing players. Among the many that find themselves out of pinstripes into the free agency market. Veterans such As RP Scott Williamson and his years of shoulder and elbow injuries, SP/RP Ron Villone, 1B Doug Mientkiewicz, and the biggest topic of conversation in baseball, SP Roger Clemens, who spent most of the time nursing injuries and soaking up a ridiculous 4.5M a month. There were several other players of relative to no significance and will not even be noticed by the most avid of fans.

What appears to be the most significant change between the Yankee’s of 2008 and the team’s of the past ten years is that you do not mention the Yankee’s with every top-tiered free agent on the market. Players like Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, went signed without even a footnote in a news article. Now that…THAT…is something amazing.

Sticking Around

The team wasted no time in its decision-making process to solidify those on their staff that either had contract extension opportunities are free agents that could be enticed away with lucrative long-term deals. Can the organization finally have realized the grass is not always greener on the other side?

One of the first decisions in the off-season was quick and easy, executing the team option on RF Bobby Abreau’s contract. Abreau did not exactly put up the power numbers he has in the past, but with an above .300 batting average, solid play in the field, and the speed in the base paths, the team simply could not have let him go.

They also could not have worked out a long-term deal this year as they had several all-star caliber (dare I say Hall of Fame caliber) players that needed to be re-signed. The team wasted no time in negotiating and ultimately re-signing Mariano Rivera to a 3-year, 45M contract that guarantees (arguably) the best closer in history finishes his career in pinstripes. The second player that needed a long-term deal was perennial All-Star catcher Jorge Posada; the two sides quickly agreeing on a 4-year, 52.4M that assured he will be behind the plate for years to come.

With LHSP Andy Pettitte who considered retirement, the team and Andy’s agent were able to come to a 1-year contract that avoided arbitration and kept this beloved starting pitcher where he is wanted most, the Yankee organization. In the same conversation of pitchers, I am impressed with the team’s decision to sign RP Luis Vizcaino to a 2-year deal, adding depth to a bullpen that well underperformed for the names that were on the roster.

Lastly, we consider the bizarre scenario that is surrounded Alex Rodriguez. The team repeated throughout the season that if Alex was not going to agree to the contract options on his contract, that they would not negotiate with him during free agency. The biggest reason was the millions they would lose from the Texas Rangers if he did not. Brian Cashman went as far as to say that “it is definitive that they will not negotiate with Alex and will seek elsewhere for the services of a third baseman. Many, including myself, felt that they would make a strong run at Boston Red Sox 3B Mike Lowell, however, the “unthinkable” happened… The Yankee organization went back on their “definitive” statement and negotiated with A-Rod anyways. The difference was the absence of Scott Boras, Alex’s agent. The deal was as astronomical as his statistics, a monumental 10-year, 275M contract.

New Additions

The team has never suffered in the offensive production categories and up till recently (the past 4 years), their pitching staff has been just as solid. The steady decline of their bullpen has been slowly turning around as Mariano Rivera has found his cut fastball which is as dominant as ever (except, of course, against the Red Sox) and the emergence of the flame-throwing Joba Chamberlain who has become the Yankee’s answer to Jonathan Papelbon.

In 2007, the team dealt RP Scott Proctor who had worn out his welcome in the Yankee organization with his less than stellar performance, being traded away for the very young and talented INF Wilson Betemit. In 2008, the team has all ready made a splash with the signing of RHRP LaTroy Hawkins. Hawkins, while with the Colorado Rockies uniform, continued to demonstrate average statistics, never regaining his 2002/2003 prowess while with the Minnesota Twins. However, with the scarcity of quality bullpen help, LaTroy will fill in perfectly with the team. LaTroy will likely be used as middle relief, often going 2 innings or more as a 5th/6th/7th inning guy.

Tyler Clippard, once a promising young pitcher in the Yankee’s organization, the team apparently lost faith in the young gunslinger. They traded him this past December to the Washington Nationals for RP Jonathan Albaladejo. Albaladejo had only 14.3 innings in 2007, all of them coming in appearances from a September call-up. He did, however, post some impressive numbers, going 1 – 1, striking out 12, and posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.628 WHIP.

The team did invite 1B Andy Phillips to spring training in hopes that he matures enough to grow into the position and his potential as well as C Wil Nieves, however with the re-signing of Jose Molina, it appears that this will be to grade the prospect as well as get him valuable experience; If for nothing else, to showcase him if he does play well.

Down on the Farm

Brian Cashman has done a tremendous job with the organization’s farm system when you consider how often George Steinbrenner went to that well over the past 5-10 years, often “trading away the farm” for veteran big-name players that were far past their primes.
Not shockingly, 8 of the Top 10 prospects projected In the Yankees’ organization are pitchers.

This past season, we saw both SP Philip Hughes and RP Joba Chamberlain make the jump to the big stage. This year, the likely candidate to join the team early is SP Ian Kennedy, sought to be included in any trade talks that involved Johan Santana. There are several pitchers, including RP J. Brent Crox (closer potential) and SP Jeff Karstens, who will be in spring training and has an outside shot of making the team. Karstens had a cup of coffee in the majors last year, going 2-2 with an ERA of 4.79, walking almost as many batters as he struck out (13 BB, 17 K).

Unfortunately, if you are not named Duncan (1B/OF Shelley Duncan and 1B/3B Eric Duncan), than you need to be a pitcher if you expect to make the jump from minors to majors in 2008.

That is not to say that there is not plenty of talent in the Yankees’ farm system, but has more to say about the solidity of the depth chart everywhere except pitching. To add to the woes of the farm, the Yankees just signed OF Jason Lane to a minor league deal and invited him to spring training.

Where to Next?

To say that the bomb squad is back is not only truthful but accurate. When you consider a 1-9 that consists of Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreau, A-Rod, Robinson Cano, Jorge Posada, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui, with Melky Cabrera, Shelley Duncan, and Wilson Betemit coming off the bench, this team appears to be offensively indestructible. There will always be health issues with Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon, but all in all, this is one of the most potent line-ups in baseball.

The potential for trouble starts and ends with pitching. Joe Girardi needs to establish early on whom he can count on to fulfill the starting rotation and bullpen if they plan to stay in the race with the likes of Boston, Detroit, and Cleveland. As it stands today, your starting five is a solid mix of up-and-coming youth (Chien-Ming Wang, Philip Hughes, and Ian Kennedy) and savvy veterans (Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina). On their website they list Joba Chamberlain as the fifth starter, but I do not see anyone who can step up and become the setup man other than Joba. I assume that Luis Vizcaino would be a consideration, as would newly acquired LaTroy Hawkins, but in a division where you are up against the BoSox, my money is on him to be the setup man to Mariano Rivera.

As for the bullpen, beyond Rivera and Chamberlain, there are some real questions. Young RP Edwar Ramirez has shown flashes of brilliance and could turn out to be a fine addition to the bullpen that presently consists of Vizcaino, Chris Britton (who, if shows early on does have the “stuff” to be a setup man), and Hawkins. Additionally, there are several “unknowns” that could emerge, including Ross Ohlendorf who posted a 2.84 ERA in six games and young Jeff Karstens who may prove serviceable at a relief pitcher position until things open up for a starting spot in the future.

The “X” factor is if the Yankees are selected in the Johan Santana sweepstakes. Although recent news suggests that the Twins want nothing more than to trade away Santana, not only to the National League and away from facing him during the regular season, but specifically to the Mets who are contemplating giving up a ton of young talent. Although not impossible, it appears unlikely that the Yankees will go that extra step and give up too much to get him. I expect this team to be in contention for the division regardless of their initial pitching woes… Girardi has a knack of getting young players to perform at “ceiling” level play, early in their careers.

Fantasy Corner

3 Fantasy Keepers:

1. Robinson Cano – He has slowly crept up the charts without too much fanfare, which is surprising, considering the numbers that he established in ’07. Cano is poised at the very least for a 25-100-100 season, taking his career batting average of .314 and making a serious run at “best second baseman” in the AL. It cannot be long before he turns those 41 doubles from ‘06 and repeat performance in ’07 and gets a little more wood behind them.

2. Alex Rodriguez – Fetching, on average, the highest pre-set cost in salary cap leagues as well as landing the most money in fantasy auction leagues, A-Rod continues to demonstrate why he is worth a 10-year, 275M contract. Up until last year, I would have said he was still, fantasy-wise, slightly overrated because he would go significant stretches where produced little to no fantasy points, however, last year was the most consistent season he has had and therefore warrants many a first pick in this coming years fantasy drafts.

3. Chien-Ming Wang – You cannot win 19 games in your first two seasons, be second in Cy Young votes in your rookie year and not have the word keeper attached to your name. This young right-handed pitcher has a nasty sliding that simply leaves batters standing at the plate with their bats on their shoulders. Consider that in both ’06 and ‘07 he did not get the benefit of all of his starts. In ’06, his call-up came later in the spring, missing 3-5 starts and last year he spent time on the D/L. With an increase from 76 SO to 104 SO, you can only imagine that these numbers, including innings pitched, should sky-rocket in 2008.

3 Fantasy Sleepers:

1. Johnny Damon – When your draft finishes this year, you will be so absolutely shocked at how low you were able to draft this 100-25-90-25 guy, that you will often have spurts of laughter the whole ride home. I have been part of several “expert mock drafts” and even though people all sound shocked when he is picked so late, the next time we draft, they do the same thing.

2. Philip Hughes – Battling injuries (two stints on the D/L) and pitch control (29 BB, 58 SO in 72.2 Innings) have placed doubt in the average to above-average fantasy GM. This is when you pounce on him like a lion. Philip Hughes showed why he is so valued in the organization towards the end of the season when he went 3-0 in his last four starts. With a year under his belt, you can bet that his pitch control will improve as his nerves calm down and his strikeouts increase as he invests more time with Jorge and Pitching Coach Dave Eiland.

3. Ian Kennedy – There are reasons why Minnesota wants him included in any talks regarding Santana. He went 1-0 in three starts with an ERA of 1.89, all of which done in September as the team made a serious push for the playoffs. Battle tested from the get-go, this kid is sure to make a fantasy splash come mid-season.

MLB Hot Stove: Boston Red Sox

Roster Decisions

Recently Departed

There were several players that departed from the Red Sox this off season, but the two that names really stand-out are starting pitcher Matt Clement and setup/closer Eric Gagne.
Matt came to the Red Sox in ‘06 with many expecting him to continue throwing “ gas” while working out his pitch selection and pitch control under the tutelage of All-Star and team captain Jason Varitek. This, however, was not the case. He struggled mightily, eventually going to the disabled list due to a nasty line drive to the head. Matt was recently offered and agreed to a 1-year contract with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Eric, on the other hand, had all ready struggled through injuries and re-established himself as a promising closer in 2007 in a Texas Ranger uniform. The Red Sox made a deadline trade for the once prominent closer and installed him in the role as setup man, to assist Hideki Okajima in setting the table for All-Star Jonathan Papelbon. Unfortunately for Gagne and the Red Sox, like so many other stars that have come and gone through Fenway, it appeared as though the demands of playing in Sox Nation were simply too much for him. To say that he imploded would be an understatement. The Red Sox appeared more than happy to receive Milwaukee Brewers’ first round draft pick in the 2008 draft when the Brewers agreed to a one-year, $10M contract in December.

Many of the other players that have not been either picked up by another major league roster or re-signed to the Sox organization include 2B Royce Clayton, RHRP Brandan Donnelly, 1B/RF Eric Hinske, RF Bobby Kielty, and Tim Wakefield’s battery partner, C Doug Maribelli.

Sticking Around

The Red Sox received two considerable hometown discounts as they came to terms on a new contract with 2007 World Series MVP, gold glove toting 3B Mike Lowell. Mike agreed to a 3-year, $37M contract that all but secures that he finishes his illustrious career in a Red Sox uniform. This is a considerable discount when you take into account that he had turned down a 4-year $50M contract to return to the Yankees organization, of which he was originally drafted, to become their starting first baseman.

The second discount received not only a discount financially from Curt Schilling, but a self-induced incentive clause based upon his weight/physical fitness. Curt Schilling has already secured a place in Red Sox history with his often referred to “bloody sock” performance in the 2004 World Series, but he has gained even more respect from Sox fans for inducing the “weight” clause to show that he does not intend to just siphon money out of the Red Sox payroll. Do not expect him to be the flame-throwing right hander that he was prior to the 2005 season, but you can place a healthy enough expectation that he will win you 14 – 17 games, which is all that you can ask from a projected third starter.

The Red Sox continued their run of excellent contract decisions by executing the contract extension options of the ageless Tim Wakefield and his inning-eating knuckleball, and Julian Tavarez and his ability to play the utility role for the pitching staff (23 games starting, 11 games in relief).

New Additions

Now here is a subject that is “all the buzz” around the MLB Hot Stove. The Red Sox are one of only a few that can afford AND has put up an offer that can be “considered” for arguably the best pitcher of this era, Minnesota Twins’ LHP Johan Santana.

Theo Epstein and the Red Sox Organization have put forward two player packages that include either top prospect/starting World Series CF Jacoby Ellsbury or World Series starting pitcher Jon Lester. Included in most packages are CF Coco Crisp (when Ellsbury is not included), and minor league prospects of note, RHP Justin Masterson, RHP Michael Bowden, SS Jed Lowrie, and LHP Dustin Richardson, all who are among the Sox’s Top 10 prospects list.

To date, the Minnesota Twins seem content with sitting on their hands and for the most part, the Red Sox organization and Sox Nation are as well. Most fans are unwilling to depart with either of the two headlining young talents (Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury), but the slogan heard all around Sox Nation is “In Theo we trust”.

Beyond that, there really does not appear to be too much in the free agent market that the Red Sox cannot comparatively pull from their minor league system, therefore I do not foresee them making any major deals but maybe a few hit or miss attempts for a situational relief pitcher.

Down on the Farm

To say that the Red Sox have reformed their “Yawkey Foundation” ways is an understatement. Like the Oakland Athletics, New York Yankees, and Los Angeles Dodgers, the Boston Red Sox have trusted their abilities to properly scout and draft excellent college and high school talent.
If you disagree, I simply ask you to turn to the 2007 World Series roster where you can find several names that jump out at you, most with fantasy impact. We will start with the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year, Dustin Pedroia. Although he got off to a rocky start, skipper Terry Francona stuck with this talented second baseman and rightly so, as he put up an amazing .317 batting average with 39 doubles, and on OBP of .380. He all but insured that David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez had the opportunities necessary to generate runs batted in, game in, and game out.

Names like Kevin Youkalis, who not only transitioned from 3B to 1B in his first full season, starting 135 games at 1B, but more importantly NEVER had an error, as well as starting pitcher Jon Lester who started in the series-deciding game in the divisional series, as well as an outstanding performance in the final game of the World Series. We also need to consider CF Jacoby Ellsbury who was a late September call-up, batting .353 in 116 at bats and 9 stolen bases, posting an impressive .417 batting average in the World Series. We cannot mention talent from the farm system without bringing up the name of the flame-throwing, furrowed eyebrow-staring, right-handed closer Jonathan Papelbon who in his first two full seasons secured two back-to-back 40 save seasons while having an astonishing 1.62 ERA in the process.

There are a few other names to look out for, primarily two that have a significant chance of making the roster at some point in the 2008 season, LHSP Clay Buckholz and SS Jed Lowrie.

You may recall Clay Bucholz during his cup of coffee in the majors in the 2007 season; after all, it is hard to forget a rookie making only his second start in the majors throwing a no-hitter. Only the 17th time in Red Sox history, this young right handed shot up to the top of every team’s wish list after becoming only the third major league pitcher since 1900 to throw a no-hitter in his first or second major league start. I assure you that he has the “untradeable” marked next to his name on every piece of paperwork in the Sox organization.

As for the young shortstop Jed Lowrie, he too has high expectations placed on him. Like Pedroia before him, Lowrie has shot up the minor league farm system, receiving an invitation to the 2008 Red Sox spring training and likely to get the call-up if anything happens to Julio Lugo or any of the middle infield players. Expect Lowrie to get a shot or two before September and will most assuredly to be added to the big leagues when the team expands to a 40-man roster.

Where to Next?

With a starting rotation that has Josh Beckett, Diasake Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, and Jon Lester, you can expect that the early season buzz is going to be about the team being primed for a repeat.

With the core of their batting lineup returning, especially David “Big Papi” Ortiz, Manny “Just being Manny” Ramirez, and the late season emergence of Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D.Drew, you can bet that this team is thinking the same thing…repeat!

When you consider that all three starting outfielders had essentially career lows statistically (Ramirez, Coco Crisp, Drew) and likely to turn themselves around AND the addition of Jacoby Ellsbury, that the team his little to worry about beyond the infield diamond.

The infield positions are also very much in place with Lowell, “Last out” Lugo, Pedroia, and Youkalis all returning, and utility INF Alex Cora still under contract. There really is not too much concern here either.

The two spots that need some beefing up is the back-up catcher role and the bullpen.

Jason Varitek is not getting any younger and there is not a clear cut prospect like they had in the past with now Cleveland Indian Kelly Shoppach no longer waiting in the wings, so the team will definitely need to do some hunting this off-season.

The bullpen, lead by All-Star setup man Hideki “Okey Dokey” Okajima and closer Jonathan “Wild Thing” Papelbon still need some spots filled. They have exercised the contract on Julian Tavarez and re-signed the timeless Mike Timlin, however, they appear to be relying on youth rather than free-agency or trade to solidify their bullpen. Manny DelCarmen has shown some flashes of brilliance, displaying a mean fastball near the mid-90s and the talk is that Clay Buckholz may be billed as a relief pitcher for the ’08 season, but they are still an arm or two short and I do not think that pitchers like RHP Kyle Snyder and LHP Javy Lopez are to be totally relied upon.

If the Red Sox do somehow coerce the Minnesota Twins into a trade for Johan Santana, there will be no doubt that they would be favored to repeat in 2008, which leads me to believe that the Twins will hold out as long as they can for the NY Mets to pull together enough talent to trade Johan to the National League and not have to worry about getting stung by their decision to trade him away.

Fantasy Corner

3 Fantasy Keepers:

1. Josh Beckett – After seeing how poised he was throughout the season, avoiding all but one blister problem and relying on his off-speed stuff more and relying less on simply trying to blow the ball past pitchers, it appears he is primed for many great years to come.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury – What this kid did in the World Series was nothing short of remarkable and easily put his name on the fantasy map. Expect him to start regardless of whether or not Coco Crisp is in a Sox uniform. He has 30-30 written all over him.

3. Clay Buckholz – It is not often that a pitcher is this heralded when he made less than four major league starts in his career, but Buckholz is one of them. You simply cannot throw a no-hitter and not be considered worthy of adding to a keeper league roster.

3 Fantasy Sleepers

1. J.D.Drew – Long known for his batting average (and consistent back problems), J.D. and his bat came to life at the most critical time for the Red Sox and showed why they rendered him such a lucrative, long term contract. With his up and down play throughout his career, he is not valued as high as he should be. He is playing in a ballpark that favors lefties, especially those who have pop at the plate, speed on the base paths, and can spray it to all fields.

2. Manny Ramirez – Now I am not suggesting that you wait till the 10th round to snag him in your fantasy league draft, however, I am saying that there is such hype around younger players and his appearance for declining statistics and slow starts gives you the opportunity to snag him as your second or third outfielder, making you look like a drafting genius come draft day. Many fantasy managers have short term memory and will likely not pay attention to the work that Manny is putting into this off-season. Expect him to blow up to his prototypical 40-100-.300 numbers that you expect from him.

3. Diasake Matsuzaka – Yes, he had a second-half swoon and yes, he demonstrated that he really does not have a “gyro” ball, but when you consider that he regained his confidence towards the end of the season and has never before been in a five-man rotation, going for as long of a season as the majors has, you have to expect that type of growing pains. He will get drafted in some leagues higher than he should, however, he will likely be drafted far later than he should in most leagues.


Next: MLB Hot Stove: New York Yankees, Saturday, January 12th, 2008

Tired of "Double-Speak"

Are we hiring quality coaches or political masterminds?

The day has arrived of over-priced, under-achieving coaches who rose to NCAA stardom, went to the NFL, had monumental collapses, then returned to the game they "loved".

Steve Spurrier left Florida to embark on a career in the NFL, trying to take the "fun 'n gun" to the next level. After being railroaded by Washington Redskins owner Daniel Snyder and his ridiculous "Steinbrenner" approach to building teams [paying huge amounts out of his fat wallet for aging, veteran players on the decline], Spurrier decided to return to the NCAA. He elected to take a team that has always performed poorly in a conference that hosts arguably the strongest teams (talent-wise) in the nation, the S.E.C. In three years, he is bringing that program, the South Carolina Gamecocks, hope where it never existed. The key here is that he didn't try and beat around any bushes, said I am moving on and that was that.

In steps Nick Saban... "I am not taking the Alabama job". Well, we know how that turned out. From LSU to Miami, then to Alabama. Nick Saban was and is considered to be a recruiting genius with the ability to find talent, rope them in, and make something of them. Heck, Les Miles is making a killing off of his talent. Nick wasn't the first but he surely has been the most prominent figure to attach the "coaches double-speak" to. He out 'n out lied to everyone in the nation, claiming that he was the coach of the Miami Dolphins all while working out a deal with the University of Alabama. One word...."Snake".

"Hello, Bobby Petrino!". Next one to join this double speak is the ex-coach of the Atlanta Falcons. On Tuesday night, there was nothing to report...NOW... he is the the head coach of the Arkansas Razorbacks... Amazing! This shouldn't be as much a shock as this will be his 15th gig in his 20+ years of coaching. Mind you, he is a great talent, but it wasn't until Louisville that he made a name for himself. Without Brian Brohm, he would still be a middle-of-the-row coach with some notables but nothing to land him the "big gig" that he now holds today. Like Saban, he left an NFL team holding the bag...even worse, he didn't even wait till the end of the season.

Well, well, well... Les Miles. "You aren't going to be the Michigan coach?". This may be true in the end, but I do not believe for a millisecond that this isn't a consideration. His wife wants to go home and Michigan is "crown jewel". Although it makes sense not to say anything until after he wins a title (that they shouldn't be in), you should simply say "I will discuss nothing of this until our season is over"...something to the affect that "it is important to show the kids on my squad today my utmost attention to helping them fulfill a dream of a national title"...

You can't call Michigan, talk to the necessary people you need to IF you want to coach there, then say you are "helping them with their search"... This is true, but it is double-speak... YOU ARE WHO THEY ARE LOOKING FOR.

"I look forward to many years as the LSU head coach"...If this is true, then why is there a buy-out clause in your extension specifically for Michigan?

Hmmm.... "Miles? Are you talking to Saban lately?"

To be honest, I think that Spurrier is the only one of these guys with true character... he says it like it is, whether it be good or bad, taking credit either way... He didn't snake out of his contract like these three bozos and will continue to push for the Gamecocks to win big and win often.

I want a coach...not a politician!!!!!

Statistocrat

Santana and Sox? How it could work!

As the drool continues to cover my chin as I realize the possibility that this deal could get done. Which deal? The deal that the Red Sox and the Twins are currently working! There are a few nay-sayers on each side of the fence, but let me tell you why this deal works for both teams.

THE NAY-SAYERS

The Nay-sayers in Minnesota are upset because they expect the world for Johan Santana and aren’t considering the business-side of these types of deals. The Twins organization face a tough situation as they have sunk tons of money into their new stadium and simply do not have the means or the desire to sign anyone to a deal that is going to tendered to the two-time Cy Young winner. They have three options. Trade Johan before the season begins (in my opinion, getting the most for your team). Wait till the trade deadline and get some good value but not near as much for an all-star with only half a year left on his contract and no guarantee of a long term deal. Or simply do nothing and enjoy the ticket sales until the year is up and hope something better comes along.

The Nay-sayers in Boston are going to be primarily focused on the loss of young left-handed Jon Lester. His story of battling cancer, returning, and playing a big part in their second World Series Trophy in four years will definitely be a hot topic in cooler conversations. Those who are extremely deep in knowledge of the organization will also be upset to see that there is going to be no play at trading away Julio "Last Out" Lugo, bringing up Jed Lowrie to do something along the lines of what Dustin Pedrioa did this year. Lastly, they would be upset if it’s Justin Masterson and not Michael Bowden. Justin has found big fans in both organization and Sox Nation as he screams up the farm system, pushing for the "Bigs".

BREAKING DOWN THE TRADE:

Minnesota lost their CF Torii Hunter to free agency, putting a hole in the line-up and an even bigger hole in their CF.

They made, in my opinion, a daring move (especially if they don’t get all they need out of a Santana deal) by trading away three young and promising players. Starting pitcher Matt Garza, who has shown great flare at the mound since his call-ups in 2007; SS Jason Bartlett who did well, showing speed and pop at the bat; And minor league RP Eduardo Morlan. In return, they upgraded 2B with Brandon, a relatively unknown OF Jason Pridie, and the gem of the deal, RF Delmon Young.

Young is the next big thing in baseball, especially showing sparks of being a "fantasy stud", voted second in rookie of the year ballots in 2007. Delmon brings speed and pop at the plate to replace Hunter and Harris brings some type of restitution to the fan base for departing with 2B Luis Castillo.

The Twins are now left short a centerfielder, a shortstop, and some much needed depth at pitching.

In steps the always opportunistic Theo Epstein, General Manager of the Boston Red Sox and demagogue of Red Sox Nation. The Red Sox are very smart about how they are attempting to lure Santana away from Minnesota. Take a look at how crafty the Sox organization has approached this trade.

The Red Sox are offering the services of …

• Coco Crisp in centerfield, who is a career .280 hitter with some pop at the bat and speed all-around.



• Jed Lowri, their top minor league shortstop in Jed Lowrie (who is making a name for himself across the minor league world)



• World Series starting pitcher Jon Lester (Southpaw), and either two pitching prospects in Justin Masterson (who I am big on) and Michael Bowden.

PIECES OF A PUZZLE

Now, if you ask me, the Red Sox have more and are willing to do more, but not much. When you consider that they are handing them a great fielder and with the exception to his stint with Boston, a very good hitter, Coco Crisp would be a welcome addition for his speed, fielding, hitting, and paycheck. Jon Lester is simply better than Matt Garza and Bartlett was on-again, off-again and could easily be replaced by Jed Lowrie. Add in Justin Masterson and you have yourself a stud in the barn.

If you are unsure about the Red Sox prospects, I shall glance over those who have recently departed from their system. SS Hanley Ramirez (FLA), 3B Freddie Sanchez (PIT), 1B Kevin Youkalis, 2B Dustin Pedroia, CP Jonathan Papelbon, SP Anibel Sanchez (FLA, pitched a no-hitter), C Kelly Shoppach (CLE), SP Jon Lester, and CF Jacoby Ellsbury. If you dare to look at their stats, you will find that these are a fine crop of players and are welcome to most, if not all pro sports teams.

The pieces fit the needs… CF, SS, SP (Crisp, Lowrie, Lester, and Masterson/Bowden).

Unless someone blows them away, in which the Red Sox could counter, this is the Sox' deal to lose... Heck, this might be a done deal by the time the winter meetings end.

Statistocrat