Week 5 ~ "Start'em"

How quick is Week 5 coming? To be a fourth of the way through the season is both exciting and depressing. I can't get enough of this game. As we look at this week's match-ups, I will focus on the second-tier players to hone in on during your Sunday morning decisions.

Bye-Week Teams: Cincinnati, Oakland, Minnesota, Philadelphia

There are a lot of good players riding the pine this week including Carson Palmer, T.J. Housh, Ocho Cinco, Donavan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, etc...

With that, the difference between a win or a loss is the right decision regarding your bench players. Here are several players at key positions that I think should be considered for starting, including my reasons why.

QUARTERBACKS:

David Carr: The kids IS good. Sure he looked awfull against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but in the past two weeks, the Buccaneers defense has transformed itself into something worth considering as a starting D/ST. Additionally, he is in a new offense and hasn't had as much time with the starting line-up as is needed to be successful. The line let him down last week but they are facing a divisional opponent, one which is 0-3 overall and 0-1 at home. I don't see this changing too much as it appears that the Saints have come back down to earth and Brees is throwing ducks out on the gridiron. I think that with Steve Smith, there is always a chance for the QB to be effective.

Trent Green: He has 5 TDs and 7 INTs, but is averaging 245 YDs a game. The Texans were exposed last week by the Falcons and I anticipate a crafty Cam Cameron to come with his guns loaded. Chambers has been fairly productive with a healthy Marty Booker sitting across from him. Ronnie Brown looks like he is on the up-swing and ready to put up another great showing against a defense that again, was exposed last Sunday. Green is saavy and should be able to capitalize on Sunday, barring the offensive line completely blowing up.

Joey Harrington: He looks....comfortable... I can say that I thought this would be a good fit, but the production that he is getting out of the offense, win or lose, in the past three weeks, looks VERY optimistic for the rest of the year. Jenkins, White, and Crumpler are getting the job done, Dunn looks healthy and Norwood is a great back-up and return man. The difference in the game will be Joey's ability to keep tabs on Keith "I love interceptions" Bullock (3 last week). The defense of TEN is built around up front pressure and turn-over focused LBs and secondaries (like the Bengals, except they actually try to be a team).

Gus Frerotte: He is like Brad Johnson. He shows up due to injury and for about 6 - 8 games, looks great, then he has a meltdown. He won't be in the helm that long and against the Arizona Cardinals, he will surely get his chances to put up numbers. If you don't have him, pick him up, dropping your weakest link and/or back-up QB, then run with him during the bye-week or during injury-laiden weeks where your starter is down.

Steve McNair: He looked terrible last week unless you count passing YDs. I expect a different outcome now that they are facing a team (SanFran) that will be playing from behind most of the day (my opinion) and most likely worn out by late third quarter. Trent Dilfer is a "manager" on the field, but simply looks like a lost lamb out on the field. McNair will have his way, likely moving over 300 YDs and at least 2 TDs, maybe an additional one on the ground.

RUNNINGBACKS:

Sammy Morris: Although the injury report shows that Maroney is "ready to go", don't expect him to be a huge part of the offense. The Patriots understand the "long haul" of an NFL season and will most likely work Maroney in slowly. I don't think Sammy gets more than 15 touches with maybe 70-85 YDs, but believe he will get more than one chance from 10 YDs in to put up TDs. The Patriots are an awesome team, but unless you are Tom Brady or Randy Moss, they are always going to have spotty fantasy starters due to their willingness to share the workload. In this case, Kevin Faulk & Lawrence Maroney will cut into Morris' opportunity as well as Heath Evans who has been known to bull his way into the end-zone.

DeShaun Foster: He is usually good for at least 4-5 great games a year. Against a defense that is poor in the front seven, this should be his chance. The Saints will focus on the run due to the recent insertion of David Carr, but the offense, including Steve Smith and TE Jeff King have shown that they need some respect. I expect either a slow start and a waning second half or blowing up the d-line early and having 75-80 YDs and 1 TD before half-time... either way, I believe he gets 100+ YDs and 1 TD.

Kevin Jones: Like I have said in recent weeks (especially week 3 where I predicted 2-3 weeks before he cut into Tatum Bell's statistics), Kevin Jones is taking over the important downs for Detroit. Jones is a better pass blocker than Tatum and stronger (if not injured) to pound the line of scrimmage and get that short yardage needed to keep the defense honest and give one of the best WR Corp.s in the NFL to get open and "do what they do". Kevin has had a TD in the past two weeks, with his yardage going from 3 attempts for 5 YDs rushing to 10 attempts for 38 YDs rushing. I anticipate anywhere from 15 - 18 touches with approximately 50 YDs and another TD.

Earnest Graham: In my most recent blog, "You make the Call ~ Graham or Pittman", I posed the question, who to start for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After reviewing everything, I believe that Graham gets the goal-line touches unless Pittman breaks something from about 20+ YDs out. Pittman will see the yardage, Graham the TDs. In most leagues, it is advantageous to go with the TD guy than the yardage guy. The rumors of the Mewelde Moore trade with Minnesota are short lived as the Vikings are asking for a first day draft pick (1 - 3 rd). I don't think he is that good. Do they want him to start? NO. Actually, I think they want him to return kicks and turn Graham into "their guy".

Brandon Jacobs: Derrick Ward has done well, but as a rule, starters don't lose their job due to injury. Ward has done exceptionally and has earned himself a long term position with the team. I believe that Jacobs will get the call with short yardage and goal situations for this week, eventually taking over full control of 1st and 2nd downs with Ward acting as a scat back for 3rd downs. Jacobs will see approximately 10-15 touches and get approximately 50 YDs but again, should put up 6 with a TD.

Selvin Young: I love this kid and if you are in a keeper league, grab'em. Travis Henry has more injuries than Colorado Springs E.R. His NFL career has been plagued by ankle injuries and Young is the next in line (sorry Mike Bell). Young will get 3rd down duties against San Diego, trying to expose the linebackers who have to back-off due to the poor play of their secondaries. In addition, the SD defense is not the same without Wade Phillips. Young has had at least one break out play that jacks up his fantasy value each week. Don't expect this week to be any different.

Brian Leonard: He put up 78 YDs in his debut last Sunday. With a QB that at least has all his ribs in tact and a history to show he can deliver the ball, I believe that Brian grabs 100 YDs and 1 TD. This is a shaky start, but if there aren't many resources on your bench, you should feel comfortable that Brian will give you something to keep your match-up competitive.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Santonio Holmes: He is quickly living up to his draft pick status. He has become the number 1 wide reciever while Hines Ward recovers from his most recent injury situation. Holmes has been a pleasant surprise as he was generally drafted after the 10th round of most fantasy drafts. Although the tandem of Spaeth & Miller also benefit from Ward's absense or limited presence, it is Holmes who ultimately will be the benefactor of many looks from Big Ben. To not start him would simply be a shame at the least...

Jerricho Cotchery: Jerricho is the guy who will ease up and turn in on hook, short slants, and outs, becoming one of the best check-down receivers in the NFL. I expect that the NYG won't let up as they face their in-state, in-stadium rivals, punishing Chad Pennington early and often. Someone has to be ready to alter their route for the blitz and Cotchery is your man. He is going to see at least 100 YDs, the question always is, will he get the chance to put 6 on the board.

Roddy White:I can't leave him off the blog, especially with Harrington all ready listed. White has quickly become the most reliable WR on the team. His recent stardom has elevated the opportunities for Michael Jenkins as well. White will definitely get enough catches to post 100 YDS, but the real question, like Cotchery, is whether he puts the ball in the end-zone. He is a great Week 5 replacement as the Falcons face the Titans and their "aggressive" approach to the secondary... The Titans can look great, but their approach can also make them look very, very bad. For White's sake, I hope it's the latter.

Dwayne Bowe: I realize what team he plays on and who is throwing to him, but tell that to the Chiefs. Bowe has had a TD in the last three games. With L.J. growing into season-speed, I can only expect Bowe to become an even bigger threat... Gonzalez and L.J. keep most defenses fairly honest, focusing on the QB rush to disrupt the pass. Bowe, although a rookie, has shown enough saavy to be open when the blitz comes and make a big impact on the outcome of each drive.

Brandon Marshall: With Javon Walker nursing a bum knee, it is Marshall who is becoming the go-to-gue for young Jay Cutler. The offense is built around the run. With Henry & Young handling the rock, you can be sure that they should have clock on their side. Marshall has shown the ability to run crisp routes, get up there for jump balls (6-4, 230 lbs.), and get behind the defender as they "feel" for the running game, getting burned more than once in a game.

Greg Jennings: He isn't practicing until Friday and that worries some of the fantasy GMs out there. But should it? He hasn't practiced the last two weeks and look what he has done...125 YDs and 2 TDs. Green Bay is facing a Chicago defense that is amazing in the front seven, but hasn't exactly gotten it done in the secondary. With Driver, Jennings, and young James Jones, this could prove to be another good day for Jennings.

TIGHT ENDS:

Owen Daniels: Daniels will face a tough secondary with MIA, but that doesn't necessarily affect him in a poor manner. The truth is, he should have a better day as the MLB Zach Thomas isn't available to run him over all day, making Daniels a key short/mid-range pass down the middle. Daniels should have his best game of the year to date. Doubles will go Andre Davis' way leaving the Weak side CB to play man to man. The Texans like to blitz from the SS position, giving a lot of open field and potential for Daniels to "do his thing" on Sunday.

Randy McMichael: Frerotte will have to rely on McMichael to help him out, not only with the offensive line (NOT his forte), but more importantly, as a sturdy checkdown receiver. He should see 7 - 9 receiving opportunities this week as they face the 'Zona defense...what McMichael does with these, especially yards after first contact will determine how the offense progresses and obviously, how well he will do for your fantasy line-up.

Jeff King: This second year TE is slowly making a name for himself down in Carolina. The Panthers have never really had a pass-catching TE in their system, relying more on the TE to block than to catch. This change will increase as he will be used as a check-down receiver for QB David Carr. I fully anticipate no less than 5 attempts, but more likely 7 - 9, giving him a chance at anywhere from 70-90 YDs (avg 10.3 per reception). I consider him a great sleeper TE for not only this week, but for those to come.

Those are my second-tier picks for this edition of "Start'em". I hope that the information proves usefull and that it produces more "W"s than "L"s....

Statistocrat

"Cadillac Out... Who's In?"

To be honest, I am perplexed! I can make arguements for both runningbacks, but not enough for me to decide who I would pick-up and play.

I am going to lay out the arguements and let you decide.

MICHAEL PITTMAN: I am a fan of Michael Pittman. Originally drafted by the Arizona Cardinals (10th Season). He has exceptional size (6'0, 228 lbs) and speed. The best thing going for Pittman is that he has all ready developed a relationship with Jeff Garcia as a third down specialist. He has great hands (ranked 2nd on the team with receptions last year). Jeff has just come from an offense (PHI) where they utilized the RB out of the backfield more than most. Michael has all the parts in place to be an effective "West Coast" offense that Garcia prospers in. The unfornate thing is that is not how the offense is truly built. It does show flashes of this, but relies heavily on running inside the guards....lots of dives. They could alter their approach and play Michael at least 75% of time, but just as easily split the carries. He should not lose his third down duties, so the question is, does "Chuckie" split 1st and 2nd, giving Pittman more of the carries, using Graham on goal-line attempts, or lean more to Graham on 1 and 2nd and give them both shots at the endzone.

EARNEST GRAHAM: All ready excelling with kick-offs and returns (his forte), he has shown that he can take his hard-nosed approach and run it right into the belly of the defense, putting up 3 TDs in 4 games. He has a storied college career and has done all the right things over the past three years to earn him this opportunity. At 5'9", 225 lbs, he is thick, fast, and hard to tackle. Will he be the "Sammy Morris, Marion Barber" that takes away TDs but acquiesces to the Yardage total? It's apparent that he has a vote of confidence from the coach and has performed well when handed the "rock", the question truly is, has it been enough to upend a veteran with the skills of Michael Pittman?

FINAL THOUGHTS: Each has 30 carries, with Pittman averaging 5.7 YDS (above league average) to Grahams 4.5 YDS (about par with league average), however, Graham has the advantage of proving he can get it in the end-zone when it counts [Graham-3; Pittman-0]. Pittman has 9 receptions for 78 YDs (8.7 YD Avg.) while Graham only has 2 for 17 YDS (8.5 YD Avg.). The truth is, they are fairly dead even when it comes to statistics. The difference is experience at being a number 1 starter (Pittman) as opposed to being a career special teams guy (Graham). Coach "Chuckie" doesn't rely on that, but does rely on what he sees.

It may come down to match-ups and who does well in the scheme for that particular week (based on practice and injury potential). Truthfully, I cannot decide, believing that both have a solid chance to touch the ball more than the other. I may be splitting hairs in reality, but fantasy-wise, it could be close or a huge difference in fantasy points.

You decide... Who would you pick-up, fantasy-wise, and why?

Statistocrat

Week 5 ~ Waiver Wire Watch

Sorry for the late installment this week... sometimes life just takes over the control of the wheel. Here are my list of potential players that are available (based on the top sites) in the free agent market. As usual, some of you are in more saavy leagues and these players aren't available or you are in a large league (12+) and there isn't much to pick from when it comes to bye week replacement and/or injury filler.

QUARTERBACK:

Duante Culpepper: Granted, he WAS playing the team that didn't want him (proved his point, I think). Not only that, the future of Oakland is a "Culpepper-like" guy (JaMarcus Russell). He didn't have to pass much because of the resurgent offensive line, however, he has great potential to reward his fantasy GMs with rushing yards and touchdowns. If you have the injured starters in the league (Alex Smith, Shoulder... J.P. Losman, Knee... Matt Leinart, Ego...) than Culpepper just might be your man.

Joey Harrington: Don't look now, but Harrington just may be the highest point total getter on your free agent market (unless Derek Anderson is still available, which he probably is). Joey has found something in the receivers of Jenkins and White and I don't think it will stop there. Expect Crumpler to grow into this lineup from here forward.

Kurt Warner: Arizona is 2 - 2 and that doesn't stop there as Kurt will be assigned to all no huddle, 2 minute offenses to start... but my gut feeling is that they may pull back the reigns on Leinart and let him watch and learn (Palmer-like). It will be ego bruising, but if he is a big boy, he will definitely suck it up and learn from a great, precision, fast paced, quick-releasing QB.

Marc Bulger: I know some of you are shocked that he is here, on my list. Take some time to search your waiver wire... You may be shocked to find him on the waiver wire. If not, try and trade for him. Jackson will be back and Holt will catch on...

RUNNINGBACKS:

Justin Fargas: "Huggie Bear" should be proud as Justin lit up MIA defense for 170+ YDs on Sunday. Rhodes is coming back from his suspension, but will be limited at best... Jordan is ailing... and Fargas is frothing at the mouth to start. He is someone you can pick up and use until the well runs dry. The team is based on running and shouldn't change in the next week or so when he proves most valuable.

Michael Pittman: Easily the highest runningback to be picked up this week. The loss of Cadillac Williams will make him valuable. He wil share snaps on 1st and 2nd, but will definitely retain his 3rd down position, giving him the majority of the touches. Pittman will have some big games, it's simply "in him".

Kenny Watson: He isn't Rudi Johnson, but CIN needs to run the ball to keep the defense honest. He will most likely see at least one more game as the starter and have some affect on 3rd down from here forward, actually limiting the quality of Rudi Johnson for the rest of the season.

Selvin Young: Even if Travis Henry continues to starts, I can all ready see a changing of the guard. Selvin is getting more touches every week. He has a great burst and ability to slip through tackles. Denver is a notorious 2-back team. He is a great filler on bye weeks and injury replacement, especially great trade bait, not if, but when Travis Henry ends up on the I/R.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Sidney Rice: Gamecock fans can't talk enough about his 75 YD, 1 TD game this past Sunday. (Trust me, I know, I now live outside of Columbia, SC and work in the Capital City during the day.) Holcomb looked comfortable throwing to Rice and I fully expect this relationship to grow.

Bobby Engram: Branch, Burleson....AND Engram. Bobby (another SC native) has a knack of being available to Matt Hasselback. He was last year, before injury, and is again proving that he still "has it". He is great to add depth to WR Corp. He will get more touches as the offense grows.

James Jones: Why not, Favre seems to be able to get it to anyone... hell, I think he threw a touchdown to Randy Moss in Cincinnati from Wisconsin during MNF tonight. He is growing in his role of the team and can be looked for more now that Greg Jennings is regaining health and a healthy respect from secondaries.

Ike Hilliard: The game plan was designed to utilize Hilliard more, but that doesn't mean that Chuckie and the Boys won't rely on him more as Galloway continues to get doulbe coverage and Pittman will be coming out of the backfield more and more. It gives more opportunity for Ike to get open and put up some significant fantasy points when the match-up is right.

Andre Davis: I told you during last weeks "Start'em" that he will going to have a big day. If you didn't believe me and he is available... Grab'em... Even when A.J. returns, expect Davis to be opposite him.

TIGHT ENDS:

Owen Daniels: Schaub is finally getting accustomed to the offense and it's weapons. Owen began to look like what most thought he would look like, a definite third option. The loss of Andre Johnson may have helped, but another Andre... Andre Davis became the new threat. Expect Daniels to be more integrated in the passing game as the season progresses.

Bubba Franks: What the hell... If Favre is now relevent, Bubba might as well be too. No, seriously, he is actually becoming more invaluable as the run game simply doesn't exist. With that, there is less blocking and more opportunity for reception. I expect that if Favre continues, Franks role will too...

Justin Peelle: A relative unknown, but proving that he deserves to be looked at, especially if your tight end is on a bye week, injured, or simply proving that he cannot do more than fill a hole in your roster spot.

I hope that this helps as you make your last minute decisions for tonight and tomorrow.

Statistocrat

'Skins seek Old Bones for Support

The Redskins may be 2 -1 and "in the thick of things" in their division, but they are far from being mentioned as playoff candidates.

The offense can move the ball, but struggle to put points on the board. They are beat up (Santana Moss, Randel El) and expect to lose starters (Portis, for one). Jason Campbell simply doesn't have enough options to get it done. [I disagree, but facts are facts, Moss, Randel El, Cooley, and the tandem of Betts/Portis simply aren't potent enough to get it done].

Desperate for help, the Washington Redskins today secured the services of an aging WR Keenan McCardell. Last seen in a Chargers uniform, McCardell is a saavy veteran that has the ability to get open. Not quite a Galloway or Jurevicious, but enough that he can have some impact, when the match-up is right.

Is this the answer? No! But when you are taking a test, sometimes filling something in the blanks, gives you a better shot at getting the score up than leaving it blank.

FANTASY IMPACT: If anything, it gives Cooley a chance to get more looks as their is another receiver available. It also can give more downs off for Moss and Randel El to keep their speed throughout the whole game and not burn out by the half. The running game won't improve much, but it will give Jason Campbell a smidge more fantasy value. All in all, this will improve the team and it's future, but not any true fantasy impact.

Statistocrat

"Elementary Dear "Watson, "Johnson's" Out!!!"

It must be tough to realize that you are hosting one of the toughest defensive squads in the league without your stud running back. The Bengals' camp has announced that Rudi Johnson is out for Monday Night Football.

Kenny Watson, a six year veteran of the league, was originally drafted by the Washington Redskins. He isn't as big as Rudi Johnson, therefore, he will not try to plow through defensive lineman and linebackers, but he is faster and has great elusiveness. Kenny will savor the chance to get the start, until about half-way through the first quarter when he realizes that New England Defense is dominating him like a new guy on the cell block...used and abused, then passed along so that it can be done again.

I think that if you are a Cincinnati fan, you are looking to Vegas to see if the line changes. As it stands, I have seen it hover around "-6"... if this thing grows, you might as well DVR the game and focus on your weekly sitcoms. Sometimes, however, changes like this actually stimulates Vegas to go the other way... if that is the case, paint yourself up and start whooping it up like it was 1999.

Being a Patriots homer, I just don't see it. The Pats are one of the best running teams and one of the best run-defense teams. The one thing that Cincinnati has to it's favor is height...in the WR corp. Asante Samuel, Ellis Hobbs III, Randall Gay, James Sanders, Eugene Wilson, and Rodney Harrison are all "vertically challanged" which gives T.J., and C.J. great opportunity, at least early in the game.

FANTASY IMPACT: If you are like me and have many o' teams invested in Rudi Johnson, this is completely deflating. Scurry like rabbits and grab Kenny Watson, Brian Leonard, or Correll Buckhalter as fast as you can, get out the prayer mat, and start bowing towards the east, cuz' yer' gunna need it!!! This benefits the NE Defense more than anyone (besides Vegas for this late scratch)... I can't see this being any better for those who have Cincinnati Defense as they are likely to play behind, most of the game. Carson Palmer, C.J., and T.J will either blow up with big points or implode with "Nare' a point ta'show fer it, Saavy?"

Statistocrat