Hopefully, this will assist you in your late round decisions and/or waiver-wire outlook as injuries occur and running backs steal goal-line touches from your fantasy starters (the "Marion Barber" theory).
"INJURY STEALS"
QB ~ Trent Green: I don't care what they are saying about him. He has great vision, a fairly competent offensive line and WR corp. and not one, but two running backs to keep the team fresh. Will it be his best year? NO. Will it be his worst year. NO. I believe that Trent Green is a great back-up QB that you can nab extremely late in the draft, picking even for solid K & D/ST before anyone thinks of taking him off the board (unless you are in a league with more than 12 teams or requires more than 1 starting QB)
RB ~ Kevin Jones: This is, in my opinion, a great 14 - 16th pick (typical last 3 rounds). Kevin has a great upside as there is now two competent WRs on the field, an offensive line that may get some continuity back now that all their starters are healthy, and two running backs who have demonstrated some "ceiling" of hope, but have either under-achieved to this point (T.J. Duckett) or also like Jones, has injury issues (Tatum Bell). Expect Kevin to bite into Bell's production from Week 6/7 and on, eventually usurping Tatum for the starting role.
RB ~ Warrick Dunn: Is Dunn older? Is he more worn out? Simply answered, "YES!". With the integration of a less mobile quarterback (Harrington), the offensive line should do better to protect Dunn & Norwoods lanes. That brings my next caution after the "injury", Jerious Norwood is the future of the team. To say that new head coach Bobby Petrino is willing to rely on Norwood alone is preposterous (at least for Weeks 1-6). Dunn will see the majority of touches early on, which makes him great "trade bait" right around Week 3 (especially if other fantasy teams who aren't deep at the running back position have one of their starters go down). Regardless, he is a great 3/4 RB on your depth chart, spot starting against weaker run-stopping defense. The greatest thing about Dunn is 90% of GMs have written them off... the guys who draft him are either hooked on name recognition or are simply rookies in the war room.
RB ~ Darren Sproles: Simply a guy to watch on the waiver wire for now. Has a huge up-side, especially if Michael Turner's injury appears to be a long-term process. Even if that isn't the case, if you are in a league that rewards players individual points for KR & PR YDS & TDs, Sproles is someone to look out for. With a defense like San Diego (even with the sustained injuries), Sproles should see a ton of PR opportunities. (Additionally, Wes Welker (NWE), Dante Hall (STL), and Teddy Ginn, Jr. (MIA) for PR & KR points)
WR ~ Terry Glenn: For some unknown reason (sarcasm), he is completely avoided until rounds 8-10. He has a solid RB corp, great QB, and T.O. opposite him to take away the roving D-back from "sniping" him down in the field. Additionally, the growth of Jason Witten down the seems and across the field insures that he will see even more touches than he has in the past, yet Terry Glenn remains the pariah of the NFL (even more than Moss and Owens). Definitley consider drafting him, especially if you focused on RB/QB early on in your draft. He is a sleeper based upon where he has been drafted, not based on talent, potential, cheat sheets or scouting reports. He is injured, so a slow start is to be expected, but to have him as a bye week replacement or trade bait makes him worthy of your roster.
WR ~ Mark Clayton: Not to be confused with Michael Clayton out of Tampa Bay. To say that this guy is undervalued is an understatement, being drafted even later than he should due to some nagging (Listed as questionable for Week - which could assist to BAL potentially starting the season 0-1). Mark has increased his production each year, not blowing us out of the water, but enough to turn the head of savvy GMs who study statistics as part of their pre-draft rituals (Fantasy Draft books are somewhat overrated once you have a few years under your belt. Those who do, realize he is due. Think about him as a great 4th WR on your depth chart, giving you a solid option to turn to on bye weeks as well as weeks in which your top WR faces difficult secondaries.
WR ~ Brandon Marshall: I know I include this kid in a lot of my lists, but that has to be a testament as to how I feel about his NFL future as well as the present. He is still nursing an injury (hamstring). Once healthy, Brandon needs only to be faster than Rod Smith (hell, Maurice Clarrett was faster at the combine than Rod) and show more durability as well as a willingness to take a hit better than Brandon Stokley. With those thoughts in mind, expect him to continue where he left off last year, producing solid fantasy numbers as Cutler grows into the NFL. He is a definite 4th receiver and could turn into a great 3rd reciever by mid-year.
TE ~ Heath Miller: Here is not only a great injury pick-up because of his recent injury (although now listed as probably for Week 1) but he had a disasterous year last you due to injury. He is one of my favorite TE sleeper picks (Chris Baker-NYJ, Leanord Pope-ARI) . In his rookie season, he had 5 TDs and almost 600 YDs, falling statistically last year more because of Big Ben's injuries than his own. I love him as Ben's third option in the flat or up the seems.
"TOUCHDOWN THIEVES"
1. LaDell Betts: Due to the fragility of both Clinton Portis and the offense as a whole, I believe that Betts will see the majority of goal line touches to give HC Gibbs the opportunity to keep Clinton healthy and productive all season. Gibbs is known for a two RB corp. based on his previous models of success. Betts has the ability to get in-between the tackles and push for extra yards. He is the equivalent of Marion Barber III last year and should be seen as a solid 3/4th RB on your depth chart.
2.Rueben Droughns: He might have been higher if he was typically drafted higher in the leagues I am involved in (as well as all those "swell" mock drafts you see everywhere). I am not sold on Brandon Jacobs. One, because he hasn't handled a full load yet and is bound to get worn out, and twobecause Ruben Droughns has built a career based on slamming down the middle and often breaking tackles for big gains and Coughlin simply can't afford to lose. I love Droughns in this offense (even if I don't like the offense). I love him as my last RB on the team. He will not have another year like he had in Cleveland, even if he is 4th on the depth charts!
3.DeAngelo Williams: I know he is the future of the Panthers organization, but he still hasn't overcome DeShaun Foster's potential. Lucky for him, Foster is a pretzel just waiting to be snapped, somewhere, at some point. Due to Foster's fragility, Williams goes before him in the draft, but with a new o-line coach, a new offensive approach, Foster may actually survive most, if not all of the season with solid production (still will under-achive). With that said, Williams will see an increased role in the short-yardage, goal-line touches. Although he has a " higher ceiling" than Droughns when it comes to talent and future, Droughns has a likelier chance of getting on the field due to the injuries around the offense, the defense, and the unknown value of Brandon Jacobs.
4. Anthony Thomas: The "A-train" should see a brief (one year) spike in his fantasy production, showing glimpses of his one-year wonder back in Chicago. Due to the lack luster offensive-line coupled with the inexperience of Marshall Lynch (not known as a goal-line bruiser), I expect Anthony Thomas to grab more goal-line touches than expected; definitely early on (Weeks 1-8). Lynch may find his NFL legs and continue to increase confidence in in his abilities, but the real question is, will he live up to the coaches and fans expectations. Personally, I wouldn't want to try to fill McGahee's cleats if I were Lynch.
5. Michael Pittman: Here is yet another example of a team that has a fragile RB and an offense that needs some punch in the redzone. Michael Pittman matches Cadillic in his ability to catch out of the backfield, and has the durability to smash down the middle for needed first downs and TDs. He will be used as a third down back as well as to take over the "Alstott" role. He WILL go undrafted, but you should NOT hesitate to add him to your waiver wire watch. Let's face it...who else do they have to go to when the going gets tough and yards aren't coming?
6. Marcell Shipp: The pride of UMASS (Amherst). Marcell is a small, yet powerful back that can pound with the best of them. Due to the lack of experience of the offensive line, the ineffectiveness of "Edge" in his ARI tenure, and the need for this team to perform more efficiently, I see Shipp taking some touches between the twenties, but an even more increased role in the red zone. Expect him to tend to the 3rd and short/4th and goal looks. You will look like a fantasy stud when he starts to show these signs and you snag 'em up before everyone else. You will be first to grab him as well as have the last laugh when other GMs struggle to bring in the next "Barber or J-Drew".
7.T.J. Duckett: I realize that he hasn't shown much during the pre-season, but heck, it's the PRE-SEASON. I believe, based upon the setup of the offense in Detroit, that there will be a need to have a goal-line RB. Tatum Bell is a sideline to sideline RB, demonstrating more west coast/spread offensive-style running than the a-typical 70's and 80's north/south, stuff'em attack that Duckett brings to the table. If you looked at the offense honestly, it is clear why Duckett was brought in. The real question would then be, does he lives up to the task which can only be determined on the field. Keep an eye out for this guy on your waiver-wire (Kevin Jones is to fragile to take these touches, if in fact he does overcome Bell on the depth chart later in the season).
8. Ron Dayne: Yes, his only success (if you can call it that) was in Denver where they can make a pop warner RB look like a pro-bowler, however, Ahman Green is a little long in the tooth and has recently spent more time on the I/R than my in-laws spend vacationing (and THAT is saying something, trust me!). Look for Dayne to be utilized as a "pounder" with short yardage situations (or at least the allusion of it, to off-set the defense's approach and abuse them when they crowd the box, opening up the TE or slot receiver). He very well may be what he was in Denver. It all comes down to the offensive line (now that is something I do not want to base my future on...ask David Carr!)
9. Correll Buckhalter: In order to keep Westbrook healthy, Buckhalter needs to play a bigger part of the offense andthat is what Andy Reid intends to do. Expect to see more split back sets, hoping and praying that McNabb can stay on his feet and keep his knees under him, which gives more options for the offense, including carries for Correll. The kid has the potential to be a great back, he always has, but injuries and off-the-field incidents have hampered his young career. Will he see a ton of touches? Maybe not, but if you are desperate for points and dealing with injuries, he may be someone you can turn to...especially if you have Westbrook as one of your starters. If you do have Westbrook, then my question is, WHY haven't you drafted him?!?!?!?
10. Greg Jones: Greg is another great reason why I refuse to draft almost anyone on the Jacksonville Jaguars offense (Except WR Matt Jones) . Although a fullback, Jones has demonstrated more H-back qualities than any other FB in the league (especially now that Allstot is gone and J.Johnson was released from Denver). My full expectations is that he will see more and more of the third and short and goal-line carries, limiting both Fred Taylor's AND MJDs touchdown totals. Keep a sharp eye on what they do this week and weeks to come. He could definitely be like J. Johnson of Denver last year, amassing 5+ TDs, which could be worthy of adding him to your roster, especially when the defensive match-ups are right.
"INJURY INSURANCE"
There are a few to consider, however, they are definitely not someone you draft at all, but in the larger leagues (12+), you need to be aware of them, studying the offense and how it progresses as well as watching injuries for a quick steal on the free agent market. The bottom-line is this, to NOT take the back-up for your top running backs is about as wise as partially opening a champagne bottle then looking at it head on to see what the cork looks like...it is not an intelligent decision...the chances of it blowing up in your face is high and you do not want to take a chance on it!!!!
Again, I hope that this information becomes invaluable to you on draft day and that it leads to your overall season's success. Remember trades, add/drops, and careful study of match-ups and injury reports always lead to a more productive fantasy season.
Statistocrat
Missed Fantasy Draft: Part 1 ~ "Over-rated" ?
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