"One Up, One Down"

The Patriots are in the news again. But this time THEY are not the ones making the decisions that affect the future of a player, instead it is THE LEAGUE that is determining the outcome.

Just days after the Patriots apparent win over Asante Samuel and his hold-out (although he was not under contract and refusing to play, which is the when the phrase hold-out is used, but it is basically what he was doing) the Patriots suffer a loss. This comes with the news of their veteran safety Rodney Harrison and the league's delivery of a 4-game suspension for using performance enhancing drugs.

Harrison, known for his hard hits and vocal team leadership has done both, but not in the way you would typically think. The league's mandated 4 games suspension for his alleged use of performance enhancing drugs is a hard hit to the Patriots secondary against the first four games of the season (@ rival NY Jets, Chargers, Bills, and @ Cincinnati). This is huge for the team, especially when you consider how well the coach of the Jets knows their offense, being a ex-defensive coordinator, playing his own defense against New England's offense last year and being a coach for Belicheck for years. Additionally, the Chargers and Bengals high-powered offenses. The Bills are less of a threat, but JP Losman and his WR corp. are growing better each game.

This leaves Belicheck to either go with sub-par play and speed of James Sanders or go with the rookie safety Brandon Merriweather. Truthfully, I believe that Sanders will start but Merriweather will get his fair share of downs until Rodney's return. They have a ton of leadership, but how will the team react to his vocal leadership after his return?

They do get Asante back (probably limited for the first game, if any playing time at all) and Eugene Wilson (out last year with injury), but to think that the foursome of Randal Gay, Ellis Hobbs III, Eugent Wilson and the tandem of Sanders/Merriweather will be able to withstand the likes of Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery, Justin McAreins, and a great sleeper TE in Chris Baker? The answer is, they haven't yet, why would this change with less talent in the secondary?

As a Patriots fan, I have mixed emotions. Obviously, I want an unreasonable record of 16-0 as all Patriots fan want them to, but I am also disappointed that this situation has come about. That is not to say that I don't understand his decision and actions, even more to say that I don't condone the use of these drugs. Being his age, wanting to compete, realising that injuries recover far quicker when you are on them, led him to make this decision, one that I believe ultimately he will regret.

The unfortunate situation is in regards to Shawne Merriman, who was also bagged for these same druges, yet was on the Pro Bowl. Bottom-line, it is all over ALL major competitive sports, but this situation also shows that your decision doesn't simply affect your health and your future, it also affects those that matter most to you. In this case, it was his teammates, the organization, and Patriots Nation as a whole who are affected by his decision/actions.

Who Benefits: Everyone playing them for the next four weeks, possibly more...you just don't throw egg on the face of the franchise and Bill Belicheck and not expect to be made an example, regardless of who you are!

In week one, expect Jerricho Cotchery to put up good numbers againts Patriots {He has owned the Patriots as of late and this will continue even more} Week two is simple, Gates & Vincent Jackson. Week three brings the Bills and the chance for Roscoe Parrish to get some nice touches and fantasy points (Being the third wide receiver). Parrish has had some success, fantasy-wise in the past and should definitely get some touches against the Patriots defense. In Week three , the Bengals "Whose-your-mama" will have a simply HUGE day against the Patriots as they will need to double Ocho-cinco and will rely on Wilson to back-up the secondary.


Ultimately, the Patriots (defense) will not lose much fantasy-wise, but it will put them behind The BEARS, The CHARGERS, and The RAVENS, where I have had them second only to the Bears previously.

Until the next time,

Statistocrat

"Rodman Called, He Wants His Act Back"

Clinton Portis may attempt to steal the act of Dennis Rodman... but there are a few things that he doesn't stand a chance with. (and "NO", it isn't in regards to who looks the best in drag)

The first is Clinton's inability, once he left the team in which helped make him a star,to have "continued" success. Unlike Rodman, Portis has failed to finish a full season since his innaugeral appearance in Washington while Rodman was a staple to his team's lineup regardless if he was up for 14 days straight, strung-out on "E" and dressed like a woman. However, Portis has made every ball and gala available, making him one of the most visible, oddly dressed millionaire's in the league (NFL). While most troubled athletes are going around at night getting gun/weapon's charges, involved in drug related, gang related, strip club related, leaving your $350,000.00 vehicle at the scene of an accident, kind of trouble... Portis is poorly imitating Rodman's craziness while having very limited publicity.

You now have to add to Portis' list of accolades such as his Emmy nomination for best "girl in a man's position", a potential robbery case as he attempts to rake millions out of the 'Skins' organization without proving solid evidence that it was ever worth it (Could that be deemed embezzlement? Hmm....)

To continue my arguement that Clinton Portis does not hold a candle to Rodman...

(Although I bet if it involved soft music and candlewax, they may have)

There was no one like Rodman in the NBA, while there are plenty of players with Portis' talent...heck, LaDell Betts does better than he does and he is his back-up. With Denver chop-blocking there way into history by taking mediocre running backs and making them look like fantasy/realistic runningback giants, there should be no shock that Portis is simply all hype, large contracts, and nothing to show for it (See Rueben Droughns, Tatum Bell, now Travis Henry).

His up-side makes him damn-near impossible to pass up on the second round, but I have, and so have many other GMs, passed up on him till at least the third round, watching the likes of Norwood, unproven Jacobs, and even Cadillac "NO TD Potential" Williams go before him. As a matter of fact, I think most of the time he was drafted due to "autopicks" (live draft "no shows") and not an actual attending GM.

Who Benefits: Well, if you don't have LaDell Betts as your top running back in regards to 2nd on a team's depth chart, you are pretty close to an idiot and shouldn't join a pay league, instead, turn around, find the next sewage drain and throw it down there...you will get the same affect, yet it won't be dragged out till Eary December...

I believe that Chris Cooley would be second on this list, benefitting from anything that would be thrown out of the backfield or the slot (do they even have a 2nd and 3rd WR on the depth chart? Can YOU name'em? I Can't!!!!) as was the case for the last 6-7 games of last season. Cooley is still ranked somewhere between 5 - 8 in TE's, but he is reliable enough that you can draft 3 RBs, 1 QB, and 3 WRs before you even think of drafting him.

On the other hand, I think Santana Moss drops significantly because they aren't going to throw 8-9 in the box for Betts, at least not right away, which means he just gained another friend in the form of double coverage everytime he is on the gridiron.

Final Analysis: I will NOT draft Jason Campbell (pre-season injury, and NO o-line). I will draft Betts because RBs are just simply hard to come by. Santana Moss is easily a top-THIRD tier WR with this horrid looking bunch, and Cooley is the only real safe bet.

Unless you get points for giving up significant points and yardage defensively AND get points for putting up less than an average baseball score for a game...there is no need to look beyond Betts as a third back and Cooley for TE....

If that is the case...draft all the Washington Redskins you can...


Statistocrat

"To Keep or Not To Keep?"

THAT is the question !!! As the fantasy baseball season is winding down, they keeper leagues are just starting to heat up...

Trades are being made to improve on playoff teams with teams who are not; Teams are trying to get younger/under payroll while other teams are thin and are willing to trade some youth and payroll space to land someone that can carry the team. All while trying "not to appear like your tanking intentionally". Nobody wants to be compared to the Boston Celtics and Memphis Grizzlies! (By the way, how did THAT work out? OUCH!)

What I am attempting to do with this blog is simply make you aware of players that are either just coming into their own, therefore their salary won't increase much beyond league minimum, those who are just called up due to injury or simply getting a taste for the bigs (especially when rosters expand to 40) or those who are on the cusp and are expected to come out of next season's spring training with their name on a locker. Each will have shortcut to their MLB profile so that you can begin to understand where they are developmentally as well in regards to their potential of playing time/roster space. There are so many to list and someone WILL be left off, but these are the names that I am most interested in adding to my rosters (as I have four keeper leagues)

{In no specific order}
* I have on a roster now

CATCHERS:
PIT: Ronny Paulino
PIT: Ryan Doumit (1B)
KC: Joe Buck
OAK: Rob Bowen
TEX: Jarrod Saltalamacchia (1B) *
SEA: Jeff Clement

FIRST BASE:
NYY: Shelley Duncan (OF)
CLE: Ryan Garko
LAA: James Loney
NYY: Andy Phillips
KC: Billy Butler (3B)
OAK: Daric Barton (C)

SECOND BASE:
BOS: Dustin Pedroia
DET: Ryan Raburn (OF)
LAA: Erick Aybar *
NYM: Ruben Gotay
TOR: Aaron Hill
TB: B.J. Upton (3B, OF) *

SHORTSTOP:
SEA: Yuniesky Betancourt *
ARI: Justin Upton (OF) *
LAA: Brandon Wood (3B)
TB: Joel Guzman (2B, 3B)
ARI: Stephen Drew
MIN: Jason Bartlett
CHC: Ryan Theriot (2B) *

THIRD BASE:
MIL: Ryan Braun *
SD: Kevin Kouzmanoff
KC: Alex Gordon
COL: Ian Stewart
CLE: Andy Marte
LAD: Andy LaRoche *

OUTFIELDERS:
DET: Cameron Maybin *
ARI: Carlos Gonzalez
TB: Delmon Young
ARI: Carlos Quentin
NYY: Melky Cabrera
PHI: Shane Victorino
KC: David DeJesus
DET: Marcus Thames *
NYM: Lastings Milledge
FLA: Alejandro De Aza
SF: Rajai Davis
CLE: Franklin Guttierez *
BAL: Nick Markakis
CHC: Felix Pie
ARI: C.B. Young *
FLA: Jeremy Hermida
FLA: Josh Willingham *

STARTING PITCHERS:
BAL: Daniel Cabrera *
PIT: Paul Maholm
PIT: Tom Gorzelanny
BOS: Jon Lester
KC: Brain Bannister
MIN: Scott Baker
MIN: Fransisco Liriano
NYY: Phillip Hughes
SF: Tim Lincecum
LAA: Joe Saunders *
CHC: Rich Hill *
ARI: Micah Owings
WAS: Shawn Hill *
DET: Andrew Miller *
CIN: Homer Bailey *
TOR: Dustin McGowan
BOS: Clay Bucholz


RELIEF PITCHERS:
TEX: C.J. Wilson *
NYY: Joba Chamberlain *
KC: Zack Grienke
TOR: Jeremy Accardo
PHI: Brett Myers *


Again, this is not an "end all, be all" list of keepers, nor is it even all of the potential prospects that can blow up in year one, two, or three of their career. This blog is simply to generate thoughts as you ponder your roster options heading into this fantasy keeper off-season. If anything, it will generate you to make a decision on each player, eliminating them as they are made in trade offers or waiver wire opportunities.

Did I miss players? Of course, I don't do this for a living (or I would have details beyond your imagination!!!) Also, I have excluded players I believe will go above the league minimum signing amount (+$500,000), so there will be players that end up being cheaper than I anticipate as well as those who are on this list that go a lot higher than I would pay... The point is to load up your bench to give yourself options, heading into next season.

"To Keep or Not To Keep....that IS the question!!!!"

Statistocrat

"The Next Jon Kitna?"

I intended to write this article last week but the forerunners of the "Kelly Holcomb Sweepstakes" was Atlanta up until a few days ago.

Drew Stanton was released shortly after the Vikings received their potential starting quarterback from the Philadelphia Eagles late yesterday. I realize that Tavaris Jackson is still listed as the number 1 starter on the Vikings roster, but that can't last beyond Week 2, surpassing Brooks Bollinger (No. 2) with minimal effort.

This is a solid move for the Vikings considering their lack of solid quarterback (not to say that Holcomb necessarily is, but better than what they had prior to his arrival). Minnesota needed someone with experience in handling the pressures of the everyday quarterback life...Holcomb is not the best candidate overall, but definitely the best of the available back-ups around the league. (Heck, New England is going with Vinny Testaverde, who is easily approaching his mid-40s)

This is not the only move made by the Viking organization in the last 10 days. The also received the number 3 wide receiver out of Green Bay, Robert Fergueson. Although he isn't guaranteed to make the squad, He and Sidney Rice will compete for the third wide receiver slot. I believe that he has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, especially in Green Bay when Driver and Jennings were injured.

These moves lend the Vikings to at least two more wins, which brings the total to four (Lions twice, Giants, Chiefs). That puts them at an abysmal 4 -12 in my predictions. This will give them a great opportunity to bring in a young gun-slinger next season and really get this team prepared for the future. With Adrian Peterson, Chester TaylorTroy Williamson, Nate Burleson, and Sidney Rice, this team is just one arm short of being a competitor for years to come.

What is the fantasy impact? I believe that if Kelly can learn the offense quickly, he could start Week 3 against the Kansas City Chiefs (battle of the back-ups? Holcomb vs. Huard). With Williamson, Burleson and either Rice or Furgueson, this team might be able to put up more points then most believe they are capable of...especially if the collarbone of Peterson holds up and Taylor can have similar, if not better numbers than last year.

The defense is ranked in the top 10 (fantasy-wise) and will contribute to potential wins in Green Bay (Week 4 & 10), Oakland (Week 11), and Washington (Week 16)...that is if Holcomb starts and not Jackson or Bollinger.

Kerry Holcomb can be a waiver-wire candidate, as well as Robert Fergueson, if he can learn the offense and remain healthy (injury prone, as most WR are). If nothing else, this makes the Minnesota Defense/Special Teams increase in fantasy value as they have a potential now to put up more consistent points, allowing them to be more aggressive [not playing from behind.]

Who Benefits: No doubt, the running backs (Taylor, Peterson), but additionally, Troy Williamson should shoot up your fantasy cheat sheets (from 60-70 to 40-50) as his touches seem more likely with Holcomb at the helm. Lastly, consider Minnesota a great sleeper at the defensive/special teams (7 overall).

Statistocrat

7 MILLION REASONS TO DANCE !!!

More than 7 Million reasons… 7.79 Million to be exact!!!!


It has been announced that Asante Samuel will join the Patriot’s pre-season camp to being preparing for the 2007-2008 NFL season. The highly discussed, often ridiculed decision to return Week 10 seems to be the bluff of the season.

Asante and his agent tried to strong-arm Belicheck, Pioli, and the New England Patriots, but failed to stand his ground when push came to shoving 7 million in the toilet.

What fantasy impact does this have?

If you are playing individualized defensive players and took a chance on the "Roger Clemens" of football, picking him up between the 15th and 20th round, you are now looking like a genius… If you passed him over because you believed that anyone in his or her right mind (besides Ricky Williams…er…scratch that. He is Far from in his right mind, which further proves my point) would ever give up 80% of nearly 8 million dollars, then it serves you right to envy the guy who didn’t… If you knew anything about the Patriots, it’s this… Bill Bilicheck plays with big balls, bigger than any player has… He let go of a marriage of twenty something years because it got in the way of the job. Do you think some 3rd round pick CB that he helped create would?

What about the "team D/ST"? Here is my not-so-humble opinion. The New England Patriots, even with Ty Warran injured, has just become the best fantasy football team in the NFL…with Chicago, San Diego, and Baltimore following in that exact order.

With Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs III, Randall Gay, Tory James, Chad Scott, and Rookie Mike Richardson, the Cornerback position is…comfortable. (Heck, Troy Brown if you need ‘em)

Safeties include Eugene Wilson, Rodney Harrison, Brandon Meriweather, and James Sanders, there is health, wealth, and depth.

The linebacker corp. has a healthy mix of youth and experience: Youth in Roosevelt Colvin, Adalius Thomas, Oscar Lau, Justin Rogers, and experience in Mike Vrabel, Tedi Bruschi, Junior Seau, and Chad Brown. Not to mention special teams animal Larry Izzo.

The defensive line is "beautiful", with Ty Warren (LeKevin Smith while injured), Vince "Big Daddy" Wilfork, Richard Seymour, Jarvis Green, Mike Wright, Kareem Brown, this is formiddable…

Where to draft. I do not recommend drafting a D/ST unless you have 2 solid RBs and a durable backup, at least one starting QB, a solid TE, and 2, if not 3 WRs. So anywhere from round 9 on… (Only for the five I have mentioned).

Unfortunately, I am a Patriots homer, so I have reached into the 9th round for them once, settling for late, late round picks of San Fran, Oakland, Jacksonville, NY Jets, and Seattle Seahawks in most leagues.

If for some unknown reason, Asante has not been drafted in the individualized defensive leagues, get to your waiver-wire "NOW"!!!!!!


Statistocrat

Vick in 2011? 2012?

Michael Vick entered his plea of guilty less than an hour ago. He is scheduled to have a "no questions" press conference from his hotel today at 11:30am. This is not a shock to anyone. But the first of many financial, emotional, physical, and mental "walls" is about to take place in this young man’s life.


The sentence hearing was scheduled for December 10, 2007. This guarantee’s that he will be out the 2007 season in its entirety. With a sentence to be delivered for anywhere from 6 to 18 months (possibly more), this makes him ineligible for the 2008 and potentially the 2009-football season.


Commissioner Goodell has all ready stated that any suspension will not occur concurrently, but instead run one after the other (the expectations is a one year suspension to be served AFTER his jail-time). At this rate, with the need to build up your skills back to "pro speed", you are talking at the earliest 2010.


What most people aren’t considering is that the State of Virginia is now beginning to define their case against Vick. I believe that they will be harsher than the federal government due to the "egg on the face" they have taken as a state since the original indictment occurred several months ago.


Realistically speaking, he could serve additional time (unless they run concurrently), pushing his potential return to the NFL into the 2012 season.


So, for all of you who feel that he will be back in the NFL, I ask you one simple question… Can you name a player that has taken a 5-year hiatus and returned to their pro sport with any level of success? (See Michael Jordan, Mike Tyson, Ricky Williams)


The answer, if I may, is simply "NO".


It is fairly safe to say that we have seen the last of Michael Vick and his abilities and antics on the field. As for off the field, it does not look promising (See Maurice Clarett). Some try to compare Jamal Lewis and Ray Lewis in the same conversation, but they did not miss the field for more than a full season (discounting injuries), Ray Lewis being the only one who really came back with the same ability with any prominence.


The time has come to retire the jersey and the hopes and wishes of a miraculous comeback. Michael Vick has played his last NFL down. I can only hope that he can learn from this and become an active member of our "common" existence. I pray that others will see his folly and learn from it.


I leave you with this quote….


"Learn from others’ mistakes… You do not have time enough in your life to make them all yourself."




Statistocrat

"Injury Impact"

It isn't even Week 1 and we are all ready experiencing the "Clinton Portis" injuries... studs who don't make it to the field without long-term nagging injuries. Here is a look at the injuries that you need to decide on, when drafting this coming weekend. There are several key players around the league that are experiencing the dreaded pre-season "bumps and bruises". Here is a list of the most recent, what impact they will have, and who may benefit from it.

Wide Receivers:

Tory Holt: Has experienced stiffness/swelling in his surgically repaired knee. This is HUGE as far as fantasy impact goes. Tory was a disappointment throughout the 2006-2007 for this very reason. This is one of a few top tier wide receivers that are on "injury alert".
Who Benefits: Due to this "foreseeable" situation, the St. Louis Rams signed free agent WR Drew Bennett from Vince Young and the Titans. The Titans expected to land Bennett, but was over-bid when they expected a home-town discount and essentially disrespected his league-wide value. Drew Bennett will have his best season (barring he too doesn't get injured). Also, Isaac Bruce, all 111 years, will see many touches alongside Randy McMichael in the endzone areas. Expect Brian Leonard to be used more frequently as a RB on the sidelines to pick-up key third and 5 or less.

"Plastic"-co Burress: This guy has been on "injury watch" since he entered the league, several years ago. He is nursing, not one, but two ankle injuries sustained during camp. With a shaky offense, worse defense, he would be a huge fantasy steal...IF HE WERE HEALTHY. He will go way to early in most drafts, including yours... if available in the 6th round or later, grab him...no loss there, but before that, there is simply too many other impact players that aren't injury prone.
Who Benefits: I have been talking about this kid for weeks... the other Steve Smith (Rookie out of USC). He gains the most benefit from Burress' history of injuries. He has impressed the coaches at camp and raised eyebrows in the web-community. Shockey will increase his workload and there will be more stuff'em football with the tandem of Brandon Jacobs and Rueben Droughns (by mid-season I expect them to be splitting carries ~ sorry to all of you who drafted Jacobs in the first two rounds)

Donald Driver: Here is another guy that can't keep his legs under him for a full season. Driver has spent at least one quarter of every season on the I/R. The offense is young an hungry, except of course for "He-who-keeps-his-team-hostage" (Brett Favvuvvuvuvre). At this point, it is a wait and see. Within the last two days, he has gone from a top 5 wide receiver to a six round pick, simply because of his injury. If you can get him as your number two wide receiver, say, fourth round or later, do it! He will recover and has been a fantasy stud without recognition for three years.
Who Benefits: There is no doubt that Greg Jennings appears to be the heir apparent when it comes to benefits, however, there is more too it than just that. Camp reports indicate that James Jones, a third round pick in the most recent NFL draft is creeping up on Jennings for the number two slot. If Driver is out, he is an outstanding sleeper pick and potential mid-season waiver wire keeper for the future. Remember the name or I will have to say, "I told you so" later on.

Marques Colston: WOW! What a rookie season, from seventh round pick, to TE/WR cross-over, to NFL rookie of the year contention, to Top 10 wide receiver rankings all over the fantasy world. He suffered lower leg issued late last year, got better, and now experiencing them all over again. Will New Orleans be the powerhouse offensively it was last year? Not with the injuries sustained throughout the organization (Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Deuce McCallister). Draft him high if you love him, get in the fourth round if you can, 5th/6th if your league is sleeping.
Who Benefits: The clear cut would be Devery Henderson, but he too is nursing injuries. Not only that, long forgotten WR David Patten, who went from Tom Brady's favorite target to lost in Redskin obscurity, to major injury, to fantasy sleeper for the gun-slinging offense of Sean Payton and Drew Brees. He is arguably their number two wide receiver without considering the injuries (or at least that is the "word on the street"). Watch the waiver-wire early on, especially if one of the two wide-outs can't get on the field...with Deuce nursing a knee injury, the offense will go to the air more than not, increasing Patten's fantasy impact.

Running Backs:

Deuce McCallister: He is not playing in the final pre-season game to rest his knee (not that he wouldn't have anyways). Is this a cause for concern? Not unless he is one of your top 2 RBs. If he is a reserve, he will heal over time, but for the first few weeks of the season, expect sub-par time on the field, touches, and fantasy impact...
Who Benefits: This is obvious. Reggie Bush. He will see increased touches down the middle as well as the work load we intended him to grow into. It will mean less chances for him to run back punts/kicks, but will increase his TD potential and 100 yd mark on the ground....with this kid, touches means TDs.

Jerious Norwood: He has been avoided early in the draft in recent weeks, mostly due to the uncertainty of the injury as well as the Michael Vick/Joey Harrington factors. Bottom-line, Dunn is old and worn out... He will most likely take away some touches when he becomes fully healthy (or at least as healthy as he can at his age) but the shift in touches will end in Norwoods favor.
Who Benefits: This is a great question. My answer is, the defense of whoever is playing Atlanta that week. Norwood's injury isn't serious, or not thought to be. I love him as a fantasy keeper and a third back on any depth chart. Draft him without fear... Harrington's ability to stay in the pocket will benefit everyone who touches the ball...if for no other reason that they will see the ball more as Harrington does not want to run around and become a highlight film.

Thomas Jones: Here is something that I have been talking about since the trade. Thomas Jones cannot stay healthy. Not even during training camp. The offense of NY has always focused around running (Curtis Martin). LaMont Jordan was never going to be the featured back, hence the travel to Oakland (how did that work out for him). I believe that he will see 10 TDs and 1200 YDs, however, it will be spotty as he will not see the field as often as his "high value" pick is rated.
Who Benefits: As far as RB touches, it is clear, Leon Washington, who was going to take away touches regardless. He is my favorite No. 2 of all the tandem running back corps. in the league...take that or leave it... he has sleeper/keeper written all over him. Additionally, Chris Baker (TE) will see increased work out in the slot, and Jerricho Cotchery is slated to become the new No. 1 in New Jersey once the season is out. (Coles has a habit of taking time on the I/R)

Michael Turner: Although it appears as a joint-sprain and not a high-ankle sprain, it is hard to predict how this affects the fantasy world. The replies show that it wasn't serious, but he didn't get up...but was carted off... I don't care who you are...that isn't good. I highly doubt he is up and running in two weeks, so there is some impact to be felt, especially for all you who drafted him as the back-up if L.T. goes down.
Who Benefits: This could be big for Darren Sproles. If your league allows Punt Return Yards/Kick Return Yards, then he has become big, at least early on... With the offense running smooth and Rivers really coming into his own, the benefit befalls those that catch. Gates & Jackson are sure to find the end-zone regardless, but could come up HUGE for you in weeks 1 - 4 due to this injury. How? When L.T. does need a down off, it becomes an air attack rather than using Turner's Burners to light up a defense.

LeDale White: Here is a real shock. A kid who came to the combine chunky and out of shape. Showed up at mini-camp last year AND this year no better, and has struggled to demonstrate anything that he performed at USC during his college hay-days. His injury appears to be minimal based on reports, but with someone like Whte, that could mean long-term trouble as his previously demonstrated ability to be lazy could mean a long mending process.
Who Benefits: Look at fantasy fans...it appears that Chris Brown went from sharing carries with White to potentially shouldering the load. This also means that Chris Henry might have a chance to sneak in and establish himself while LeDale is on the mend. Overall, I don't believe in the Titans defense, so the running game will be hampered by time on the field and playing behind for the majority of the season. Not to mention the increased Vince Young runs that are bound to grow, as the year progresses (no offensive line to speak of).

Travis Henry: The details of his injury are not yet known, but the initial prognosis is "not pretty". This is huge for fantasy owners who relied on Henry as their top 1 or 2 back... personally, he has always been an injury concern, even during his "breakout" year back in Buffalo, all those years ago. This is huge for Broncos fans, but the o-line and Mike Shanahan takes mediocre and makes them great; takes great and makes them unforgettable. Travis Henry, may just become forgettable if he doesn't toughen up.
Who Benefits: This is shocking to some considering Mike Bell's breakout year last year, splitting touches with Tatum Bell, but Cedric Cobbs is the name to remember on draft day. Slated as the number one back, he will see the most touches do to Henry's injury. Mike Bell is not in the good graces of the head coach. I wouldn't be surprised if rookie RB out of Texas, Selvin Young sees more touches than Bell initially. To fall out of Shanahan's graces is easier than earning your way back in. Look to Brandon Marshall, when healthy to benefit also from this injury (he will eventually supercede Brandon Stokley and Rod Smith on the depth chart as the number 2 WR.)

Tight Ends:

L. J Smith: The news from Phillie is that L.J. will not play the pre-season finale and doubtful for the season opener due to a foot injury. He has a chance to make a big impact with Westbrook planning on 20-25 traditional RB touches and no real depth at WR (Reggie Brown, Kevin Curtis).
Who Benefits: Brian Westbrook will be first to benefit as he will have to play more out of the backfield like the traditional setup of Westbrook's career to date, however, I expect Correll Buckhalter to see some good touches in the first week or two while Smith recovers, taking the conventional third and short, fourth and one touches to minimize the injuries to Westbrook. Call Buckhalter Westbrook's "stunt-double", handling the tough yardage, pound the ball up the middle substitute. Is he draft-worthy? Not unless Westbrook goes down (which is likely, so pay attention) Kevin Curtis will be bigger in the first two weeks (or until L.J. comes back), so play him early, trade 'em early. He is fast, but Brown will see all the worthwhile deep touches. Westbrook will see most of the short yardage passes out of the backfield.


I hope that this information proves insightful and useful towards your upcoming drafts and roster changes. If you would like more information, please be sure to check us out when the season starts. We are going to have a "INJURY REPORT" each Saturday to review before you set your lineups as well as a "WAIVER-WIRE WATCH" on Monday nights as the Tuesday deadline for roster add/drops typically occur. Until tomorrow, have fun, draft smart, and breath football.

Statistocrat

"Got Schaub?"

Ahhhh...how we LOVE our back-up quarterbacks. It is has been said time and time again, the most beloved player on any football roster is the back-up quarterback. This year, there is arguably none more than Matt Schaub.

For a guy with career stats of 52.2% passing percentage (84 for 161), 6 TD and 6 INT, and a passer rating of an abysmal 69.2%, there is not a more overrated NFL quarterback than Matt. He has shown no true signs that he is worthy of the praise he receives from fantasy GMs all around the globe, yet, he is seen as some kind of prodigal son, come to establish a solid offense and save the Texans organization. "SHAME ON YOU" for giving into such unfounded hype.

I compare you to the hundreds of athletes that came in after the hype of "Got Milk?" had long sense left, yet you did it because everyone else was doing it...

What you must think about when considering Matt Schaub on draft day is what changes have been made to the Houston Texans roster SINCE his arrival (or David Carr's departure). To be as blunt as I can, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. For all those of you who hoped to secure good QB past the 6th round, instead focusing solely on "impact positions", you are going to be in for a long, long fantasy football season.

The offensive line is going to be just as poor under Matt Schaub as it was under David Carr. He will lead the league in being sacked, yards lost (career-wise, is off to a great start all ready amassing 12 sacks in 36 games (not more than 6 full games) and 49 yards lost.

Although Eric Moulds had lost a step prior to his Texas debut, he was still a refined, route running, excellent catching, fairly dependable (at 107, injury is always a possibility) wide receiver. Who is opposite Andre Johnson (who is simply losing statistical and financial gain because of the organization he plays in)? Kevin Walter? Andre Davis?

Who is going to run the ball (obviously not Reggie Bush...the biggest blunder in NFL history)? Ahman Green? So we have lost Moulds for another aged, injury plagued veteran? The only bright light in the offense is the TE Owen Daniels who will surprise many in this league simply because he has better than average speed, solid hands, great route running skills, and a very keen sense of the defense, however, he will not be as affective as previous years due simply to the lack of the offensive line...he will be counted on more to block than ever (or they will sub him so that he doesn't get injured, therefore limiting options further).

All in all, Matt Schaub is undoubtedly the most overrated quarterback in the draft, not because he will go early, but simply because fantasy football nation as a whole has bought into this whole "crock of crap" that he is going to be somebody...

Show me an NFL quarterback with a career 52.2% passing percentage that can make heroic throws and thrust fantasy teams into playoffs, FROM HIS BACKSIDE!!!!

If you are one who dismisses that the QB is the second most producing point player in fantasy sports (first, stop being a complete idiot), then I afford you a few names to consider.

J.P. Losman: Last year, he showed a maturity that only comes from losses and learning. With a tandem of Evans and Price, and Roscoe Parrish as the third option, he will have a better chance (and a better o-line). Marshawn Lynch will hurt him early, but with A-Train able to cover the nitty-gritty third and short, third and goal situations, he is better than Schaub.

Chad Pennington: Although injury-prone, he has an offensive line of young studs, solid RB tandem of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, solid WR with L. Coles and J. Cotchery, and an underrated TE in Chris Baker (not to mention, being coached by Man-"Genius"). The D/ST of the Jets are underrated as well and will keep Chad and his crew on the field and in the hunt for a Wild Card slot behind NE.

Alex Smith: This kid is due for a breakout year. Darrell Jackson is old, but will get 10TDs and 1K in yards, Arnez Battle will put up more fantasy points than you expect (not a sleeper, but a waiver-wire watch), Vernon Davis is a stud (click, clack....), Frank Gore is overrated and is wearing down as he usually does, but his back-up Michael Robinson will shine at some point this year (keeper general managers, remember that name) and an o-line that has better than average with the base of it's staff returning.

Matt Leinert: He is border-line when it comes to late picks, averaging around 7/8th round, but with Fitzgerald, Boldin, B. Johnson at WR, the Edge and Marcel Shipp running the ball, a better o-line, especially with key draft pick Levi Brown and a great run-blocking, average catching Leanord Pope at the TE position, they should actually live up to the hype that has been going on in Arizona for the past five years. There defense is still suspect, but better, younger, and faster (not a fantasy draft pick, but has impact on the time the offense has the ball).

Eli Manning: Tiki leaves and everyone writes of the NY Football Giants offense. Please do make this mistake. Although I am not a "Plastic"-o Burress homer, he is still an excellent receiver (when healthy), Jeremy Shockey will actually be worthy of the no. 3 - 5 overall TE, fantasy-wise for the first time since his arrival, Brandon Jacobs and Rueben Droughns will do more than share the ball, but will handle the departure of Tiki (more Pittsburgh style, stuff it down your throat, but will have as equal an affect or better because most teams will need to put more in the box, giving Burress and Shockey a chance for more passes. The defense is solid (still not draft worthy, even with the return of Michael Strahan (He can stop the gap in the middle of a D-line, but can't fix that gap in his teeth?). Lastly, I hit you with another keeper player, Steve Smith out of USC. He is shining in camps and preseason and will eventually win the number two WR spot. He will have more fantasy impact that Meachem(SD-I/R), Jarrett (CAR), Rice (MIN), Bowe (KC). (Not better than Anthony Gonzalez, IF it is a keeper league - He replace Harriosn sooner or later)

There you have it... as Flava Flav says... "Don't Believe the Hype".

The question is... "Did you get SCHAUB'D?"

Statistocrat

"Fumble Watch"

Rookie Head Coach Lane Kiffin made the announcement yesterday, "Duante Culpepper will start tomorrow night." The question is... does Culpepper have ANY fantasy impact at all?

I liken Duante to two figures in the cinema. The first is the phrase "He munsoned it." For those of who have watched the movie King Pin featuring Woody Harrelson and Dan Akroyd, you know exactly what I am talking about! When an individual, at a key moment, makes an absolute dunderheaded mistake, it's called a "Munson". The second is the T-Rex in the kid's movie "Meet the Robinsons". The scene I refer to is when the dinosaur has the kid pinned in a corner to attack him but cannot reach him. When asked by the evil villain why he hasn't captured him yet, he replies "I have small arms and a big head", his head so enormous and arms so short that he cannot stoop low enough to grab him.

Whenever someone drops something or goes to throw something, like a pen to another office personnel and it flies behind them OR a bowler starts his motion and the ball flies behind them,
in my circle, we say "He CULPEPPERED."

Let's face it, the guy is a behemoth, with the hands of a ten-year-old. He has fumbled more snaps and lost more balls while his arm is in motion than my two-year-old (although, my two year has far greater accuracy when he does throw forward).

The question is...."DOES CULPEPPER HAVE ANY FANTASY IMPACT". To answer the question, you have to decide what type of impact you expect. I guy who threw for 300+ yards consistently and had two to three TDs a game, including rushing ability, goes from hero to zero in one injury plagued season. How can that be? The answer is simple, supporting cast. With the loss of Randy Moss and no real ground game to speak of, the Vikings went from playoff contenders to TOP 5 draft pick in one season. There are worse quarterbacks starting in the league this year (predecessor T. Jackson, C. Frye, etc...) so why would you draft Duante at all? (After all, I have been in 6 fantasy drafts this season without his name being called ONCE!)

Aside from the nay-sayers, I believe that Culpepper has a chance to be the comeback player of the year. In Miami, he simply came back to early because Nick Saban had to do what he needed to do to save face, bottom-line. Playing on a knee that was 80% at best did nothing for him in Miami or his "fantasy" street-cred. His ability and history have shown it...how the mighty have fallen. From a top 3 QB two years ago to undrafted... it simply makes no sense. Can Culpepper be the "Garcia" of 2007?

Let's look at Oakland. There are two underachieving WRs (Jerry Porter, Ronald Curry), two back-up running backs (LaMont Jordan, Dominic Rhodes), an offensive line that ranks among the leagues worst, as well as a new coach who is, by all accounts, focused on the offense (which is why "Crazy Al Davis" brought him to Oakland in the first place). Does this talent/offense give Culpepper a shot at redemption...HARDLY.

With Russell in the wings (who I believe will wear a headset on the sidelines for most, if not all of the season), he has to hear the ticking of the clock. It is Russell's team, Duante is just babysitting. If he wants to stay in the league as a starter, he has to do something.

I think that he will have a productive year, regardless. My expectations is that he will in fact throw over 2500 yards, with 20-22 TDs, with equal amounts of interceptions and more than his fair share of fumbles (or "Culpeppers"). But, I say to you this... To draft him with your last pick may not be a bad choice, especially if you waited that long for a back-up (better than any Cleveland QB, T. Jackson, Matt Schaub (NOT the second coming of anyone), and a safer bet to keep his starting job (unlike Delhomme, Grossman, Campbell).

Do I suggest drafting him...No, not really, but he will be tops on my "waiver wire watch" (pardon the alliteration). Does he have fantasy impact? You tell me... do you think that the running back tandem can do what they need to do? Do you believe that Porter and Curry, who are both fast but have "too many drops", will step up and be the player we all hype them up to be? Can the offensive line become cohesive enough to gel and protect a mobile quarterback? Can he minimize the "Culpeppers" he so often accomplishes at key downs throughout the year?

Sleeper or Bust, he is worth considering in larger leagues (more than 12) as a back-up. He has the potential to make you look like a genius, or the ability to make you look like you "Culpeppered" on draft day. Either way, it is interesting to watch, like a car wreck... you can't help but watch with baited breath.

Check out tomorrow night's game for the "Fumble Watch" when Stephen Jackson and the Saint Louis Rams travel to Oakland to meet the Raiders in Week 3 of the preseason.

Statistocrat

A Costly Plea !!!

I realize that I said I would not discuss the Vick issue, but I have to re-think that decision as I read about the "potential" loss of finances.

With a (not so easy, yet) simple plea bargain, Vick stands to lose up to 100 Million dollars in salary, signing bonus, and even more with endorsement deals.

In December of 2004, The Falcons organization signed Vick to the largest contract in NFL history; 10-year, $130 Million. He has collected a combined $77 Million in signing and roster bonuses to date. The expectation is that they will seek repayment on a pro-rated basis of the $37 Million dollar bonus, approximately $25 Million. This will likely be resisted by the Players Association, ending up in an abitrator's hands.

League sources say that the Falcon's are likely to cut Vick, but at Commissioner Goodel's request, will hold off for now. If they wait till march of 2008, there is actually as savings in salary cap space. With the remaining $6 Million to come off the books this year, next year's salary of approximately $7.5 Million will be more than enough to sign a veteran quarterback.

Vick's products are flying off the shelves, but not by consumers, but by his endorsers, sacrificing thousands, even millions, to "save face". (Rawlings ended it's contract and Nike suspended theirs). Most trading card vendors are going forward with their cards though.

With 12-18 months jail time (avg. federal sentence served is 85%), an expected one year suspension, and no salary during that time, it is hard to say that Vick will get off easy, even if we all are probably more worse off financially, because we still have "our good name".

Who is going to want to take him on in 2010? The first clue is NFL.com and it's merchandising department...they no longer sell anything "Vick"... I wouldn't be surprised if "Vick's VapoRub" changes their name, for simple association reasons.

I know I would...

Statistocrat

Big Money, No Support

Big Money...

Big Money...

No Whammies...

STOP!!!!"

So the news finally hit that Kansas City realized where they are without their top running back. So the deal is done. Johnson signed a five-year extension, which locks him up with the Chiefs through the 2012 season — the extension plus the year remaining on his old contract.

Johnson will make $45 million over the next six years.

As for Johnson’s five-year extension, he will earn $43.2 million, making him the highest-paid running back in the NFL based on average salary per year. Johnson is guaranteed $19 million and will make $27.7 million over the first three years of the extension.

To Johnson's, shortly after completing the deal, he didn't simply watch the practice, but suited up, ran hard, and even demonstrated improved pass-blocking skills.

There was a collective sigh across fantasy football nation to all those who invested in Larry Johnson with their first overall pick (typically 3 - 6th pick overall). How does this affect his fantasy impact...well, for one, he can now make points now that he is actually in pads and practicing.

The biggest question going into this season, ultimately affecting where you "think" you should draft him is the offense, or the lack thereof.

It appears safe to assume that Brodie Croyle, rookie mistakes and all, will "man the helm" for a team that was close enough to the playoffs last year to make them believe they have a shot this year. However, this is far from the truth.

Eddie Kennison and Samie Parker aren't going to win you games, much less a championship run. Yes, Dwayne Bowe is going to have an immediate impact...but not enough to draft or even put in the top 50 wide receivers. The only saving grace is a better than average o-line and one heck of a running back.

Personally, I believe that Larry Johnson, because of the offense issues AND the workload he took on last year and is bound to shoulder this year, is AT BEST, the number four running back, behind LaDanian Tomlinson, Stephen Jackson, and Shaun Alexander.

The lack of offense will not limit his potential as some would like you to think...those who tell you this are hoping you skip over him for Gore, Parker, and Westbrook so that they can draft him at an absured 6th pick or later...

Offense or no offense, he worthy of drafting anywhere after Tomlinson and Jackson, even IF he has no practice, no supporting cast (save Tony Gonzalez) and a mediocre defense.

Statistocrat

Changing Of The Guard: Joey Harrington???

It's official. Joey Harrington has his own team again! The question is...what will/can he do with this team and how does it impact his fantasy worth.


In order to set his value on your draft board, you have to do two things. One, disregard the Miami Dolphin/Detroit Lions Joey Harrington, and two, look at Atlanta's team as a whole (both offense and defense).


Let me start by saying, NO!, Joey Harrington should NOT be your fantasy starter at the quarterback position, however, I think after careful review, he can be a great addition as you back-up if the usual suspects aren't available. It is one thing to secure a "solid" back-up quarterback, yet something completely different to "reach" for one.


I am under the firm belief that back-up quarterbacks have tremendous fantasy impact on your football team, however, if they aren't there where you need them to be...skip'em, there will be more where they come from... (Leftwich, Pennington, Schaub, etc...)


Atlanta Falcons:

First, the offense. The offensive line is ranked approximately 23rd in the league, however, that number is based upon a roving, inconsistent, and sporadic play of one Michael Vick (no, I will not go into the details of his court proceedings). With a fairly mobile, pocket passer, I believe that they should be ranked near 12-15, somewhere between the 49ers and the Steelers. The running back situation looks new/fresh so it is hard to predict, but Jarius Norwood looks like he is ready to take over the shoes of Dunn. Dunn will be there in a perfuctionary role, taking snaps from Norwood as the season progresses (diminishing the overall value of Norwood come draft day). The wide receiver corp. has been working harder than ever because they know they have a better shot at touches now that Michael Vick is out of the picture. Joe Horn is a needed, veteran presence that will lift there level of play overall, with Michael Jenkins and Roddy White growing as the season progresses. Alge Crumpler will receive a steady diet of second and short slant routes and third and long post routes along the seems also. (Solid No. 4 Tight End overall).



Defense. The team is solid. They are fast, young, talented, yet still a little reckless. As long as health is not an issue, primarily at their front seven, freeing up the young defensive backs to make the plays that they have been drafted for (DeAngelo Hall, Chris Houston, Jimmy Williams), they have a chance to keep the offense on the field. They too
(the backfield) have an experienced veteran, Lawyer Milloy, to learn from. The typical ranking for their defense is 23rd also, but again, I believe it to be inaccurate as it is based primarily on last years showing (health, experience). I think they are a top 15 defense and will show it with grit, determination, speed, and raw pain with powerful blows that will wear down offenses.



Atlanta will not make the playoffs, but to say that Harrington will find the same fate at Atlanta that he found in Miami and Detriot will be in error. When all is said and done, Harrington will be statistically and fantasy point-wise, far superior to the likes of Schaub, Culpepper, Green, Frye, Losman, Delhomme, and even Favre based simply on the fact that he manufactures drives, is consistent with the ball (delivers with amazing accuracy) and you will find that by week 6, most people will drop their drafted back-up quarterback and select Joey off the waiver-wire. It may occur two or three times, but you will find at least a 65% roster rate throughout all the major fantasy sites (ESPN, NFL, Yahoo, CBSSportsline, Sandbox).



Do I think that you should pick him up on draft day....only if you need a back-up quarterback and you have waited till the 13-15th round and need someone to fill in for a bye week.



Statistocrat

">

"The Pusher"

With every sports season, there is that one guy trying to push you into "fantasy sports". He is usually the guy who has more energy than a third of your staff combined, always spouting off sports-related topics that wasn't his own thoughts, but something regurgitated from the same talk show radio host that you listened to either on the ride to or from work in the past work week.

Now, most aren't like you and therefore don't listen to talk radio everywhere you go, so the information he spews from his lips day in and day out, to them, sounds like pure sports genius... Okay, so he is at your desk again, talking about sports, asking you to join the league so he can "show you how it's done, son!".

HOLD ON! Before you simply haul off and drill him right in hi grill, there IS another way. Join the league. Sure, you will have to listen to him brag endlessly before the draft, but once the season gets up and running, with your team high-stepping all over his ego, you can watch that "parrot" of a sports fan whither down to hunched shoulders and a low, sluggish walk to the water cooler as you approach him, to console him on the "shalacking" that he took...

With a solid draft, key Add/Drops, and trades coupled with solid free agent pick-ups, you will become the envy of the water cooler, watch "Captain Comment" walk around with a proverbial black eye without having to lift a finger. How is this possible?

It's simple... I gats whut'chu need, bruthah!!! Tell me what'chu want...what'chu need, and Stat will have your back !!! Read the posts, reply with the questions...await the answers. I promise you won't be let down.

Look here daily for fantasy insights, costs, comparisons, and anything else I can find on the streets that we can pump in your veins and give you the highs that you search for in the fantasy sports world.

Statistocrat

">