MLB: Draft Day Diagnosis: Catchers

Join Screaming Sports Staff Writer, Statistocrat, as he evaluates each position, offering you his “Musts”, “Trusts”, and “Busts”. The key to a successful draft is drafting as many musts at each position that you can, avoiding potential busts, and relying on depth through consistency, or “trusts”.



MUSTS

1. Victor Martinez (CLE): Easily the standout in this category. There is no reason to assume that he does not match his previous three years output, averaging 24 homeruns, 82 runs, and 105 runs batted in. Add in the emergence of Kelly Shoppach and the number of games he played at 1B last year, he should qualify as C/1B/CI.

2. Russell Martin (LAD): This is the best catcher in 5X5 rotisserie league because of his .280 batting average, 80-80 potential runs and runs batted in, and 20+ steal potential. Personally I believe that he will be the best catcher in ’08. He has clearly demonstrated consistency where Victor Martinez puts up his statistics in spurts.

3. Brian McCann (ATL): Although Joe Mauer is rated higher in most “experts” rankings, it is McCann that has the higher ceiling in 2008. Mauer is injury-prone and does not have as much protection in the line-up as McCann does. Consider McCann as a solid fantasy starter that you can grab in the mid-rounds of your draft. With Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira, and Jeff Francoeur in the line-up, McCann has a great chance to improve on his runs/runs batted in while resuming the power that he displayed in his debut season and the second half of 2007.

4. Joe Mauer (MIN): With 8 – 10 steals, a batting average that will hover around .300 and between 70-80 in runs and runs batted in, he is clearly among the tops in the league; however, with the Twins line-up in the middle of a huge transition, he will be limited in “consistency”. He is a guarantee to be drafted before McCann and some managers will value Mauer over Martin.

5. Jorge Posada (NYY): I do not see another 24-90-90 season out of Posada, but he has been the most consistent catcher in the league since 2000. Posada does have the benefit of a line-up that most never has the opportunity to play with in their career; therefore, he still holds solid fantasy value. He will go early and often in drafts once the “catcher run” begins…but hold strong, realizing that there are more quality catchers that are mid-tier (“trusts”) that can give you approximately the same production so that you can focus on more important positions like depth at the corners (1B/3B), solid outfielder depth, and excellent pitchers that are considered mid-tier, however, extremely productive in the long run.


BUSTS

1. Ramon Hernandez (BAL): Long gone are the productive days that Hernandez had in Oakland. With an insufferable line-up, and limited opportunity, Hernandez will be taken with the hopes of comparing to his previous statistics, prior to his arrival in Baltimore, but do not consider him unless you have focused on every other position and you are deciding between Ramon and players without little to any big league experience.

2. Paul Lo Duca (WAS): Here is another player that has lost his viability in the fantasy world due to a transition to a team that has little to no opportunity to produce offensive fantasy statistics. Lo Duca will produce between 50-60 runs/runs batted in and might even lose 10 points on his average as he will surely feel the pressure to produce runs to compensate for the lack of depth on the Nationals line-up.

3. Michael Barrett (SD): Michael did see a surge in production once traded to San Diego, partly due to the environment in the White Sox dugout. The problem is that he has moved to a pitchers park and San Diego has shown long droughts of offensive production for the past few seasons. Someone will think about the Michael Barrett of old and not the present-day Barrett… Do not be that fantasy manager.

4. Bengie Molina (SF): Bengie was amazing when he played in a potent Angel’s offense. When he signed with the Toronto Blue Jays, both the Blue Jays organization and many fantasy managers thought that production would follow. Now entering his second season as a Giant, he have to evaluate what he produced last year and call that the expectations. Look for less than 50 runs, no more than 75 runs batted in, and a handful of homeruns, say…”15”.

5. Ivan Rodriguez (DET): It looks to good to be true! Solid line-up, deep pitching, and no real depth at the catching position in Detroit. With all this, people will still expect more out of Pudge than he can offer at this point in his career. Like Gary Sheffield, he is on the decline, literally “adding insult to injury”. Rodriguez will have spurts that will make some fantasy managers happy, but do not look to Pudge other than a back-up, using him when he has one of his streaks.



TRUSTS

1. Kenji Johjima (SEA): You can consistently expect a .280 batting average, 50 runs, and 65 runs batted in from Kenji. He has increased his homerun total every year so expect a small spike in dingers this year, likely going from his career average of 16 to 20. With a player like Johjima, you can relax on draft day, realizing that you can grab him after two thirds of the draft has expired and everyone has overreached for some of the other mid-tier catchers, musts, and busts.

2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (TEX): Jarrod was part of the blockbuster “Mark Teixeira” trade between the Rangers and the Braves in ’07. To say that this player has a higher ceiling now that he is in a hitter’s park is an understatement. The additional opportunity to potentially play 1B adds even more value to a player that has the potential to produce 25-80-80 in his first full season.

3. Jason Varitek (BOS): Considered to be one of the best students of the game, Jason had a particularly forgettable season in 2007. (World Series Championships have little to do with the fantasy world). What can be said for Jason is his statistical consistency. You know what you get when you draft ‘Tek’; 50-60 runs, 18-20 homeruns, 65-70 runs batted in, and a .280 batting average. When you see value at other positions, go to them first, realizing that a consistent catcher like Jason will be available well into the 20th rounds of a fantasy baseball draft.

4. A.J. Pierzynski (CWS): You do not have to like the player to draft and start him in your line-up. He will ruffle feathers of opponents and teammates alike, but the one thing you can guarantee from A.J., 50-50 in runs/runs batted in, and a handful of homeruns (15-18). He is consistent enough at the plate to guarantee over .278 in batting average considering he is a career .284. Basically, Pierzynski will not hurt you in any fantasy category and will bring enough to the table to keep your team viable in almost any fantasy format.

5. Chris Snyder (ARI): For a player that only had 384 at bats in 2007, this catcher impressed me. I believe this is the best value at catcher if you are not ultimately concerned with huge statistics out of the catcher’s position. Snyder hit an impressive 13 homeruns, 40 runs batted in and 37 runs on a team were pitching, not offense, carried this team to the playoffs. Like Conor Jackson, Chris Young, Justin Upton, and Stephen Drew, Chris is looking to have a solid season in 2008. My prediction is that Snyder knocks in 20-22 homeruns, 50 runs, 65-70 runs batted in, and a batting average of .265 to .272. Is that a bold prediction, only time will tell.

MLB Hot Stove: Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Will B.J. Upton be able to best his 2007 statistics?

Where Are They Coming From

The Devil Rays became a Major League team in 1998. Since then, the team has averaged a shade above 60 wins a season. The Rays are just one of four teams to never make it to the World Series (Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, and the Washington Nationals). The team has placed last in the American League East every year except for 2004 when they finished fourth in the division with 70 wins (3.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays). The 2007 season was no different, finishing the year at 66-76.

When you consider that in their nine years, they have had seven Top 10 picks, six of which were Top 3 picks. The team has drafted the likes of Josh Hamilton (TEX), Delmon Young (MIN), B.J. Upton (TB), Rocco Baldelli (TB), and 3B Evan Longoria. With these names, you would think that this team would be far better off than they are today. Both Hamilton and Young are no longer with the team.

The 2007 team had to endure injuries to 3B Akinori Iwamura, the oft-injured CF Rocco Baldelli, INF/OF B.J. Upton, Closer Al Reyes, and promising young SS Ben Zobrist, however, this was not the biggest reason for their poor showing but it may have been the difference between another last place finish and fifth (Baltimore had only 3 more wins).

There were some very bright spots on the 2007 roster that is worth investing some time with starting with B.J. Upton. Upton seems to have finally arrived, batting an impressive .300 batting average, 24 homeruns, 22 stolen bases, and an impressive 80-80 runs/runs batted in on a terrible offensive team. Both Scott Kazmir and Jamey Shields were able to win 13 and 12 games, respectively. These two young pitchers combined for 423 strikeouts with over 421 innings pitched. Although Shields only surrendered 36 walks, Kazmir continued to run up the walk totals, netting 89. Least we forget the young OF Delmon Young. Delmon’s rookie year was not as hot as his temper, but it was enough to garner looks from around the league when the season ended. Young batted .288 even though he managed 127 strikeouts and only 26 walks. It is easy to conceive a high percentage of his 38 doubles to transform into homeruns, adding to his 13 homeruns from 2007.

Carl Crawford was still extremely productive with only Carlos Pena being the only productive player on the roster. Carl swiped an impressive 50 stolen bases, continued to improve his plate presence, batting .315, and produced 37 doubles, 9 triples, and 11 homeruns. The only downfall was his strikeout total which rose from his average of mid-eighties to a career-high 112 strikeouts.

Players Added

With outfielders Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Rocco Baldelli, and Johnny Gomes, the team made an interesting trade with the Minnesota Twins. The Devil Rays traded away OF Delmon Young and INF Brandon Harris in exchange for SP Matt Garza and SS Jason Bartlett. I think that this was a great move by the Devil Rays. When you can add a young, promising arm to your rotation, you must jump on it and quickly.

Matt is not extremely impressive when you look at his statistics. Matt started 15 games in 2007, racking up an ERA of 3.69, posting a 5-7 record and only giving the Twins an average of 5.5 innings a start. With all that being said, we must remember that he is only 24-years old and was listed as the seventh best prospect in the Minnesota Twins minor league system entering the 2006 season. He has also demonstrated that he can pitch, striking out 11 against the Indians on July 29th.

Jason Bartlett brings some more speed to the Tampa Bay line-up, stealing 23 bags, and slapping 20 doubles and 7 triples. He did, however, give up 26 errors. When considering the switch of Brandon Harris for Jason Bartlett, I think that the Devil Rays walked away with the better hand…

The team did try to add some veteran experience by adding Cliff Floyd. Cliff has had an up and down career due primarily to injury. The team’s website has him listed as their starting DH. With limited playing time and more opportunity to focus on his plate presence, this move could prove very fruitful for a team that is struggling to get out of their historical funk and into a more prominent position with an extremely difficult division.

To add arms to the bullpen was important and the team did what they could to bolster their late-inning efforts, signing relief pitcher Troy Percival to a two-year contract and executing the contract option on closer Al Reyes.

The team did invite veteran C Mike DeFelice to spring training, giving young Dioner Navarro a run for his money.

Players Lost

Beyond the trade of Delmon Young and Brandon Harris, you really could not use the word “lost”. The Washington Nationals did acquire OF Elijah Dukes for a minor league player and RP Shawn Camp did fly north to Toronto for a spring training invite. There are several players who were not re-signed and remain a free agent market, however, none have any roster or fantasy impact.

Moves Still To Come

When reviewing the roster, it is clear that the team has taken a step forward, especially in their pitching rotation and bullpen. The addition of SP Matt Garza and RP Troy Percival shows a willingness to push passed their historical disappointments and starts to look towards the future with promise. This does not imply that there still is not a need for assistance in these areas. The team has three solid relief pitchers (Reyes, Percival, and Dan Wheeler) but need to either seek an arm or two in the free agent market or rely on young arms such as Scott Dohmann, Juan Salas, and possibly taking young Jason Hammel and J.P. Howell. With the age of their veterans, these young pitchers need to step up their game, settle down in their pitch control, and round off this bullpen.

In addition, the starting pitching consisting of young arms truly has no veteran leadership. Scott Kazmir, Jamey Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnastine, and Edwin Jackson have a combined 1 years of experience (2.4 year avg.). What this team needs is someone who has “been there, done that” and can eat up some serious innings to take away some of the pressure on the bullpen. Look to the Devil Rays to try using the youth and speed of their line-up along with the veteran arms in the bullpen to lure a pitcher like World Series starter Josh Fogg or inning eating Livan Hernandez.

What to Watch in Spring Training

I believe that the Devil Rays will be one of the most exciting teams to watch as they have many positions to finalize.

With the departing of starting 2B Brandon Harris and top minor league prospect 3B Evan Longoria expected to make the leap into the big leagues, second year INF Akinori Iwamura makes the transition from third base to second.

There are obvious candidates to take the 7th inning, setup, and closer position with Wheeler, Percival, and Reyes on the payroll. The interesting part will be watching each of these three run out there every day and compete to be the closer.

The same could be said for the starting rotation. Unless the team does wheel and deal for a veteran that can help lead the youth, eat innings every chance they can, and be talented enough to help lead this team above the .500 mark, they will have to evaluate and invest the pitching staff’s time building up 2 of the 4 young pitchers battling for the fourth/fifth starter position, a position in the bullpen, or risk being sent to the minors.

While many eyes will be focused on the top three starting pitchers and the talented outfield, they will not be the only one’s benefitting from the “awe” of spring training. 3B Evan Longoria will receive his fair share of publicity. The team is hoping that he rivals the year that Boston Red Sox’s Rookie of the Year, Dustin Pedroia. Evan had an excellent AA (Montgomery Biscuits) campaign in 2007, hitting 21 homeruns, 78 runs, and 76 runs batted in 381 at bats. Additionally, he posted a .307 batting average. He did make the leap to AAA (Durham Bulls), getting 104 AB and posting some mediocre numbers (.269 BA, 19 2B, 32 SO). The question is, can he make the jump essentially from AA to the “bigs”?

All in all, I believe this team is positioned to post their best season ever. I am not suggesting that they are playoff-bound; however, I do believe they are certainly better than the Baltimore Orioles and should be competitive enough that if the Blue Jays continue on their stumbling ways, they could win 80 games and place third in the division behind the Yankees and the Red Sox.

MLB Hot Stove: Toronto Blue Jays

Can Vernon Wells return to his 30-100-100 form in 2008?





Roster Decisions



Recently Departed



With 2007 and all it’s hopes of contending for an American League East gone, the Blue Jays and J.P. Ricciardi are in the process of preparing for another run against the two of the highest payrolls in baseball, the Yankees and the Red Sox.

There were several players that left the organization, most of which were signed by other teams, however, most of which are not considered to have any real impact on the team or fantasy-wise. UT Howie Clark was signed November 22, 2007 by the Minnesota Twins, getting the invite to spring training; 40-man roster OF John-Ford Griffin was signed and invited to the Los Angeles Dodgers spring training; and 3B Ryan Roberts was signed by Texas, also getting a spring training invitation.

The only real player of note comes via a recent trade. Troy Glaus came to the Blue Jays with hopes of reviving his career and establishing himself as an all-star caliber third baseman.


Unfortunately, as has been the case over the past three years, Glaus had a big pop at the plate, little to do in the batting average department, and invested a lengthy amount of time on the disabled list.


Sticking Around



The team made only two attempts to invest in departing players. The ageless Matt Stairs (OF) was re-signed to a two-year deal on November 2, 2007. Matt had a career year with similar statistical output as he did in 2003 when he was with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The only other player to receive an invite back the team, in the form of a spring trainee invitation, was C Sal Fasano on December 14, 2007. Most of the work to rebuild the team came via free agency.


New Additions

Knowing that they needed to add depth to the line-up, the Toronto Blue Jays have made several roster moves to try and solidify their offense, bringing more consistency. Although Aaron Hill did a great job filling in at both shortstop and second base, it was apparent that he was more comfortable playing second base. To demonstrate their desire for more consistency in the line-up, the team signed 2006 World Series MVP SS David Eckstein to a one-year deal.


They also added an excellent utility infielder Marco Scutaro. Marco spent the better part of four years in the Oakland organization. Although he does not bring tremendous speed or power, what he does is bring more versatility to the infield, allowing players to rest without losing anything too significant in the line-up.


The biggest splash they have made this off-season occurred when the team announced the 3B switch with the St. Louis Cardinals. The team, seeking more consistency at the plate, opted for limited bat strength for better average and on-base percentage, acquiring perennial gold glove 3B Scott Rolen. The Cardinals needed a big bat and the Blue Jays needed consistency. This deal appears as a “win-win” for both organizations. Each upgraded their line-up in a way that makes them more viable and each traded away an injury-prone third baseman.


Down on the Farm



The Blue Jays have several talented young prospects in their organization; however, the most prominent of them have all ready made the leap to the big leagues in 2007. In his first full season, Dustin McGowan accrued some impressive numbers, 12 wins, giving 169 innings and 144 strikeouts. Rookie SP Jesse Litsch also put together some very promising starts. If it had not been for the lack of run production out of their batting line-up, there would have been more opportunity to post wins, allowing this young staff to gain more confidence as the season went on.

Another fine addition to the major league team was 2B/SS Aaron Hill. Hill made a big splash in the fantasy world in 2007. Although technically in his third season, Aaron went the common practice of being called up and down throughout the 2005 and 2006 season. In ’07, however, he secured himself as a starter and responded by pushing out 17 homeruns, 87 runs and 78 runs batted in. Hill, batting an impressive .291 was one of the bright spots outside of the young pitchers that established themselves.


Many of the prospects are at least a year away. The organization’s top prospect is OF Travis Snider. Snider spent the majority of the year playing for the Lansing Lugnuts. Travis reeled off 16 homeruns, 93 runs batted in, and 72 runs all while batting .313. Although he stole only 3 bases, his 7 triples and 35 doubles surely lend itself to great power potential.


Beyond Travis, there are two stand out prospects that are on many teams radars, that being 3B Kevin Ahrens, selected 16th overall in 2007. The organization has prided itself on its ability to evaluate talent. This is never more evident than when we turn our thoughts on LHP Brett Cecil. This flame-throwing closer is surely making a name for him in the organization. This kid is all ready throwing a slider that is considered to be major league quality. With the pitching situation in desperate need of a face lift, Cecil is the most likely to make the roster.


Where to Next?



This team is posed for a third place finish in the division as they will not be able to hang with the Red Sox and Yankees all season, however, they very well could land the second spot, with the either the Yankees or the Sox taking the other position. The Tigers, Angels, Indians, Yankees, and Red Sox are more than likely to be in the top five teams in the American League, however, the White Sox, Blue Jays, and Twins will all be competitive enough to make a “National League”-like run for the playoffs.

There are a lot of “ifs” associated with this thinking, starting with the health of Scott Rolens (Can he stay healthy?), the return of B.J. Ryan (absolute steal in the draft if he makes it to spring training), and whether Vernon Wells can bounce back to his previous three years worth of statistical output. The team’s weakest positions are the middle relief, with young setup man Jeremy Accardo, Casey Jannsen, and the veteran Scott Downs expected to shoulder the bulk of the load, as well as the catcher. Veteran Greg Zaun will likely see the majority of playing time with Sal Fasano will likely backing him up, receiving more time than most back-ups due to the age of Zaun.

The last “if” is a big one. Can A.J. Burnett stay healthy? When he is, he is one hard-throwing right hander…when he is not; he is one of the most expensive paperweights on the payroll. I expect Aaron Hill to continue to produce homeruns, increasing to the early to mid-twenties, along with at least 90 runs batted in, making him one of the best draft day sleepers at the second base position.


The infield is wrought with solid fielders. Eckstein and Rolens will yield high-percentage fielding average. Hill should see a decrease in errors as he grows accustomed to learning the fielding routines of one position and Overbay will continue to be better than average.

Will this team stay healthy and consistent enough to make a run for the playoffs? Only time will tell.

Fantasy Corner



3 Fantasy Keepers:



1. Alex Rios – Watch out, ladies and gentlemen! This five-tool athlete turns the magic “27” next month. Anyone who is involved with fantasy baseball is aware of what that means to a productive baseball player. Alex is primed for a 30-100-100-25 year. With Rolens, Wells, Stairs, and Overbay around him in the line-up, especially with Eckstein in front of him, this should be a career year for Rios. Draft him early and often, regardless of what the “experts” say.

2. Dustin McGowan – Towards the end of the season, Dustin actually got stronger, including a complete game, 9 strikeout effort against the eventual World Series Champion Boston Red Sox. McGowan had his magic “27” year last year but that should have no affect on where to project this kid over the coming years. He will be well worth the value as a keeper in any league.

3. Jeremy Accardo – Filling in for the injured B.J. Rayn, Jeremy amassed 30 saves, 4 wins, an ERA of 2.14, and struck out 127. Whether Ryan is ready to go or not, Jeremy will play a big part in the success of this ball club for years to come. His WHIP will improve as it did throughout the ’07 season, showing that he is a value at the relief pitcher position (once all the top closers are gone, of course.)




3 Fantasy Sleepers



1. Vernon Wells – Like Andruw Jones, Wells had career lows in almost every statistical category. With the “short term” memory of most fantasy GMs, it is imperative that you draft him where YOU think his value is, not where the books/magazines you poor over prior to your draft say his value is. I believe that he will post his typical 80+ runs, 30+ homeruns, and 100+ RBI. He will also nab you 15-20 steals, raising his batting average in line with his previous marks (.280+), making him an ideal sleeper in a 5X5 league.

2. Aaron Hill – Although he may not qualify for both SS & 2B as he did in ’07, the truth be told, with a .290 batting average, 18-20 homeruns, 80-80 or better potential at runs-runs batted in, and is fast enough to swipe 10-12 bases, he will be an absolute bargain towards the tail end of your draft.

3. Scott Rolen – Yes, he is likely to only play in 140 games…and Yes, he did have to significant injuries in the past five years. BUT… the injuries have never been back to back and, he still can knock out 25 homeruns, give you near 90-90 production at runs/runs batted in, and will give you a boost at the batting average, having a lifetime average of .280+.

Next: MLB Hot Stove: Baltimore Orioles, Sunday, January 20, 2007

Previous MLB Hot Stove Articles:
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox

MLB Hot Stove: New York Yankees

Can Chien-Ming Wang become a 20-game winner? (NYTIMES.COM)

Roster Decisions

Recently Departed

It appears that the New York Yankees are up to their old antics, but it is not necessarily the same. As the new year approaches, the team is once again a turn-style for incoming and departing players. Among the many that find themselves out of pinstripes into the free agency market. Veterans such As RP Scott Williamson and his years of shoulder and elbow injuries, SP/RP Ron Villone, 1B Doug Mientkiewicz, and the biggest topic of conversation in baseball, SP Roger Clemens, who spent most of the time nursing injuries and soaking up a ridiculous 4.5M a month. There were several other players of relative to no significance and will not even be noticed by the most avid of fans.

What appears to be the most significant change between the Yankee’s of 2008 and the team’s of the past ten years is that you do not mention the Yankee’s with every top-tiered free agent on the market. Players like Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, went signed without even a footnote in a news article. Now that…THAT…is something amazing.

Sticking Around

The team wasted no time in its decision-making process to solidify those on their staff that either had contract extension opportunities are free agents that could be enticed away with lucrative long-term deals. Can the organization finally have realized the grass is not always greener on the other side?

One of the first decisions in the off-season was quick and easy, executing the team option on RF Bobby Abreau’s contract. Abreau did not exactly put up the power numbers he has in the past, but with an above .300 batting average, solid play in the field, and the speed in the base paths, the team simply could not have let him go.

They also could not have worked out a long-term deal this year as they had several all-star caliber (dare I say Hall of Fame caliber) players that needed to be re-signed. The team wasted no time in negotiating and ultimately re-signing Mariano Rivera to a 3-year, 45M contract that guarantees (arguably) the best closer in history finishes his career in pinstripes. The second player that needed a long-term deal was perennial All-Star catcher Jorge Posada; the two sides quickly agreeing on a 4-year, 52.4M that assured he will be behind the plate for years to come.

With LHSP Andy Pettitte who considered retirement, the team and Andy’s agent were able to come to a 1-year contract that avoided arbitration and kept this beloved starting pitcher where he is wanted most, the Yankee organization. In the same conversation of pitchers, I am impressed with the team’s decision to sign RP Luis Vizcaino to a 2-year deal, adding depth to a bullpen that well underperformed for the names that were on the roster.

Lastly, we consider the bizarre scenario that is surrounded Alex Rodriguez. The team repeated throughout the season that if Alex was not going to agree to the contract options on his contract, that they would not negotiate with him during free agency. The biggest reason was the millions they would lose from the Texas Rangers if he did not. Brian Cashman went as far as to say that “it is definitive that they will not negotiate with Alex and will seek elsewhere for the services of a third baseman. Many, including myself, felt that they would make a strong run at Boston Red Sox 3B Mike Lowell, however, the “unthinkable” happened… The Yankee organization went back on their “definitive” statement and negotiated with A-Rod anyways. The difference was the absence of Scott Boras, Alex’s agent. The deal was as astronomical as his statistics, a monumental 10-year, 275M contract.

New Additions

The team has never suffered in the offensive production categories and up till recently (the past 4 years), their pitching staff has been just as solid. The steady decline of their bullpen has been slowly turning around as Mariano Rivera has found his cut fastball which is as dominant as ever (except, of course, against the Red Sox) and the emergence of the flame-throwing Joba Chamberlain who has become the Yankee’s answer to Jonathan Papelbon.

In 2007, the team dealt RP Scott Proctor who had worn out his welcome in the Yankee organization with his less than stellar performance, being traded away for the very young and talented INF Wilson Betemit. In 2008, the team has all ready made a splash with the signing of RHRP LaTroy Hawkins. Hawkins, while with the Colorado Rockies uniform, continued to demonstrate average statistics, never regaining his 2002/2003 prowess while with the Minnesota Twins. However, with the scarcity of quality bullpen help, LaTroy will fill in perfectly with the team. LaTroy will likely be used as middle relief, often going 2 innings or more as a 5th/6th/7th inning guy.

Tyler Clippard, once a promising young pitcher in the Yankee’s organization, the team apparently lost faith in the young gunslinger. They traded him this past December to the Washington Nationals for RP Jonathan Albaladejo. Albaladejo had only 14.3 innings in 2007, all of them coming in appearances from a September call-up. He did, however, post some impressive numbers, going 1 – 1, striking out 12, and posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.628 WHIP.

The team did invite 1B Andy Phillips to spring training in hopes that he matures enough to grow into the position and his potential as well as C Wil Nieves, however with the re-signing of Jose Molina, it appears that this will be to grade the prospect as well as get him valuable experience; If for nothing else, to showcase him if he does play well.

Down on the Farm

Brian Cashman has done a tremendous job with the organization’s farm system when you consider how often George Steinbrenner went to that well over the past 5-10 years, often “trading away the farm” for veteran big-name players that were far past their primes.
Not shockingly, 8 of the Top 10 prospects projected In the Yankees’ organization are pitchers.

This past season, we saw both SP Philip Hughes and RP Joba Chamberlain make the jump to the big stage. This year, the likely candidate to join the team early is SP Ian Kennedy, sought to be included in any trade talks that involved Johan Santana. There are several pitchers, including RP J. Brent Crox (closer potential) and SP Jeff Karstens, who will be in spring training and has an outside shot of making the team. Karstens had a cup of coffee in the majors last year, going 2-2 with an ERA of 4.79, walking almost as many batters as he struck out (13 BB, 17 K).

Unfortunately, if you are not named Duncan (1B/OF Shelley Duncan and 1B/3B Eric Duncan), than you need to be a pitcher if you expect to make the jump from minors to majors in 2008.

That is not to say that there is not plenty of talent in the Yankees’ farm system, but has more to say about the solidity of the depth chart everywhere except pitching. To add to the woes of the farm, the Yankees just signed OF Jason Lane to a minor league deal and invited him to spring training.

Where to Next?

To say that the bomb squad is back is not only truthful but accurate. When you consider a 1-9 that consists of Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreau, A-Rod, Robinson Cano, Jorge Posada, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui, with Melky Cabrera, Shelley Duncan, and Wilson Betemit coming off the bench, this team appears to be offensively indestructible. There will always be health issues with Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon, but all in all, this is one of the most potent line-ups in baseball.

The potential for trouble starts and ends with pitching. Joe Girardi needs to establish early on whom he can count on to fulfill the starting rotation and bullpen if they plan to stay in the race with the likes of Boston, Detroit, and Cleveland. As it stands today, your starting five is a solid mix of up-and-coming youth (Chien-Ming Wang, Philip Hughes, and Ian Kennedy) and savvy veterans (Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina). On their website they list Joba Chamberlain as the fifth starter, but I do not see anyone who can step up and become the setup man other than Joba. I assume that Luis Vizcaino would be a consideration, as would newly acquired LaTroy Hawkins, but in a division where you are up against the BoSox, my money is on him to be the setup man to Mariano Rivera.

As for the bullpen, beyond Rivera and Chamberlain, there are some real questions. Young RP Edwar Ramirez has shown flashes of brilliance and could turn out to be a fine addition to the bullpen that presently consists of Vizcaino, Chris Britton (who, if shows early on does have the “stuff” to be a setup man), and Hawkins. Additionally, there are several “unknowns” that could emerge, including Ross Ohlendorf who posted a 2.84 ERA in six games and young Jeff Karstens who may prove serviceable at a relief pitcher position until things open up for a starting spot in the future.

The “X” factor is if the Yankees are selected in the Johan Santana sweepstakes. Although recent news suggests that the Twins want nothing more than to trade away Santana, not only to the National League and away from facing him during the regular season, but specifically to the Mets who are contemplating giving up a ton of young talent. Although not impossible, it appears unlikely that the Yankees will go that extra step and give up too much to get him. I expect this team to be in contention for the division regardless of their initial pitching woes… Girardi has a knack of getting young players to perform at “ceiling” level play, early in their careers.

Fantasy Corner

3 Fantasy Keepers:

1. Robinson Cano – He has slowly crept up the charts without too much fanfare, which is surprising, considering the numbers that he established in ’07. Cano is poised at the very least for a 25-100-100 season, taking his career batting average of .314 and making a serious run at “best second baseman” in the AL. It cannot be long before he turns those 41 doubles from ‘06 and repeat performance in ’07 and gets a little more wood behind them.

2. Alex Rodriguez – Fetching, on average, the highest pre-set cost in salary cap leagues as well as landing the most money in fantasy auction leagues, A-Rod continues to demonstrate why he is worth a 10-year, 275M contract. Up until last year, I would have said he was still, fantasy-wise, slightly overrated because he would go significant stretches where produced little to no fantasy points, however, last year was the most consistent season he has had and therefore warrants many a first pick in this coming years fantasy drafts.

3. Chien-Ming Wang – You cannot win 19 games in your first two seasons, be second in Cy Young votes in your rookie year and not have the word keeper attached to your name. This young right-handed pitcher has a nasty sliding that simply leaves batters standing at the plate with their bats on their shoulders. Consider that in both ’06 and ‘07 he did not get the benefit of all of his starts. In ’06, his call-up came later in the spring, missing 3-5 starts and last year he spent time on the D/L. With an increase from 76 SO to 104 SO, you can only imagine that these numbers, including innings pitched, should sky-rocket in 2008.

3 Fantasy Sleepers:

1. Johnny Damon – When your draft finishes this year, you will be so absolutely shocked at how low you were able to draft this 100-25-90-25 guy, that you will often have spurts of laughter the whole ride home. I have been part of several “expert mock drafts” and even though people all sound shocked when he is picked so late, the next time we draft, they do the same thing.

2. Philip Hughes – Battling injuries (two stints on the D/L) and pitch control (29 BB, 58 SO in 72.2 Innings) have placed doubt in the average to above-average fantasy GM. This is when you pounce on him like a lion. Philip Hughes showed why he is so valued in the organization towards the end of the season when he went 3-0 in his last four starts. With a year under his belt, you can bet that his pitch control will improve as his nerves calm down and his strikeouts increase as he invests more time with Jorge and Pitching Coach Dave Eiland.

3. Ian Kennedy – There are reasons why Minnesota wants him included in any talks regarding Santana. He went 1-0 in three starts with an ERA of 1.89, all of which done in September as the team made a serious push for the playoffs. Battle tested from the get-go, this kid is sure to make a fantasy splash come mid-season.

MLB Hot Stove: Boston Red Sox

Roster Decisions

Recently Departed

There were several players that departed from the Red Sox this off season, but the two that names really stand-out are starting pitcher Matt Clement and setup/closer Eric Gagne.
Matt came to the Red Sox in ‘06 with many expecting him to continue throwing “ gas” while working out his pitch selection and pitch control under the tutelage of All-Star and team captain Jason Varitek. This, however, was not the case. He struggled mightily, eventually going to the disabled list due to a nasty line drive to the head. Matt was recently offered and agreed to a 1-year contract with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Eric, on the other hand, had all ready struggled through injuries and re-established himself as a promising closer in 2007 in a Texas Ranger uniform. The Red Sox made a deadline trade for the once prominent closer and installed him in the role as setup man, to assist Hideki Okajima in setting the table for All-Star Jonathan Papelbon. Unfortunately for Gagne and the Red Sox, like so many other stars that have come and gone through Fenway, it appeared as though the demands of playing in Sox Nation were simply too much for him. To say that he imploded would be an understatement. The Red Sox appeared more than happy to receive Milwaukee Brewers’ first round draft pick in the 2008 draft when the Brewers agreed to a one-year, $10M contract in December.

Many of the other players that have not been either picked up by another major league roster or re-signed to the Sox organization include 2B Royce Clayton, RHRP Brandan Donnelly, 1B/RF Eric Hinske, RF Bobby Kielty, and Tim Wakefield’s battery partner, C Doug Maribelli.

Sticking Around

The Red Sox received two considerable hometown discounts as they came to terms on a new contract with 2007 World Series MVP, gold glove toting 3B Mike Lowell. Mike agreed to a 3-year, $37M contract that all but secures that he finishes his illustrious career in a Red Sox uniform. This is a considerable discount when you take into account that he had turned down a 4-year $50M contract to return to the Yankees organization, of which he was originally drafted, to become their starting first baseman.

The second discount received not only a discount financially from Curt Schilling, but a self-induced incentive clause based upon his weight/physical fitness. Curt Schilling has already secured a place in Red Sox history with his often referred to “bloody sock” performance in the 2004 World Series, but he has gained even more respect from Sox fans for inducing the “weight” clause to show that he does not intend to just siphon money out of the Red Sox payroll. Do not expect him to be the flame-throwing right hander that he was prior to the 2005 season, but you can place a healthy enough expectation that he will win you 14 – 17 games, which is all that you can ask from a projected third starter.

The Red Sox continued their run of excellent contract decisions by executing the contract extension options of the ageless Tim Wakefield and his inning-eating knuckleball, and Julian Tavarez and his ability to play the utility role for the pitching staff (23 games starting, 11 games in relief).

New Additions

Now here is a subject that is “all the buzz” around the MLB Hot Stove. The Red Sox are one of only a few that can afford AND has put up an offer that can be “considered” for arguably the best pitcher of this era, Minnesota Twins’ LHP Johan Santana.

Theo Epstein and the Red Sox Organization have put forward two player packages that include either top prospect/starting World Series CF Jacoby Ellsbury or World Series starting pitcher Jon Lester. Included in most packages are CF Coco Crisp (when Ellsbury is not included), and minor league prospects of note, RHP Justin Masterson, RHP Michael Bowden, SS Jed Lowrie, and LHP Dustin Richardson, all who are among the Sox’s Top 10 prospects list.

To date, the Minnesota Twins seem content with sitting on their hands and for the most part, the Red Sox organization and Sox Nation are as well. Most fans are unwilling to depart with either of the two headlining young talents (Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury), but the slogan heard all around Sox Nation is “In Theo we trust”.

Beyond that, there really does not appear to be too much in the free agent market that the Red Sox cannot comparatively pull from their minor league system, therefore I do not foresee them making any major deals but maybe a few hit or miss attempts for a situational relief pitcher.

Down on the Farm

To say that the Red Sox have reformed their “Yawkey Foundation” ways is an understatement. Like the Oakland Athletics, New York Yankees, and Los Angeles Dodgers, the Boston Red Sox have trusted their abilities to properly scout and draft excellent college and high school talent.
If you disagree, I simply ask you to turn to the 2007 World Series roster where you can find several names that jump out at you, most with fantasy impact. We will start with the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year, Dustin Pedroia. Although he got off to a rocky start, skipper Terry Francona stuck with this talented second baseman and rightly so, as he put up an amazing .317 batting average with 39 doubles, and on OBP of .380. He all but insured that David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez had the opportunities necessary to generate runs batted in, game in, and game out.

Names like Kevin Youkalis, who not only transitioned from 3B to 1B in his first full season, starting 135 games at 1B, but more importantly NEVER had an error, as well as starting pitcher Jon Lester who started in the series-deciding game in the divisional series, as well as an outstanding performance in the final game of the World Series. We also need to consider CF Jacoby Ellsbury who was a late September call-up, batting .353 in 116 at bats and 9 stolen bases, posting an impressive .417 batting average in the World Series. We cannot mention talent from the farm system without bringing up the name of the flame-throwing, furrowed eyebrow-staring, right-handed closer Jonathan Papelbon who in his first two full seasons secured two back-to-back 40 save seasons while having an astonishing 1.62 ERA in the process.

There are a few other names to look out for, primarily two that have a significant chance of making the roster at some point in the 2008 season, LHSP Clay Buckholz and SS Jed Lowrie.

You may recall Clay Bucholz during his cup of coffee in the majors in the 2007 season; after all, it is hard to forget a rookie making only his second start in the majors throwing a no-hitter. Only the 17th time in Red Sox history, this young right handed shot up to the top of every team’s wish list after becoming only the third major league pitcher since 1900 to throw a no-hitter in his first or second major league start. I assure you that he has the “untradeable” marked next to his name on every piece of paperwork in the Sox organization.

As for the young shortstop Jed Lowrie, he too has high expectations placed on him. Like Pedroia before him, Lowrie has shot up the minor league farm system, receiving an invitation to the 2008 Red Sox spring training and likely to get the call-up if anything happens to Julio Lugo or any of the middle infield players. Expect Lowrie to get a shot or two before September and will most assuredly to be added to the big leagues when the team expands to a 40-man roster.

Where to Next?

With a starting rotation that has Josh Beckett, Diasake Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, and Jon Lester, you can expect that the early season buzz is going to be about the team being primed for a repeat.

With the core of their batting lineup returning, especially David “Big Papi” Ortiz, Manny “Just being Manny” Ramirez, and the late season emergence of Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D.Drew, you can bet that this team is thinking the same thing…repeat!

When you consider that all three starting outfielders had essentially career lows statistically (Ramirez, Coco Crisp, Drew) and likely to turn themselves around AND the addition of Jacoby Ellsbury, that the team his little to worry about beyond the infield diamond.

The infield positions are also very much in place with Lowell, “Last out” Lugo, Pedroia, and Youkalis all returning, and utility INF Alex Cora still under contract. There really is not too much concern here either.

The two spots that need some beefing up is the back-up catcher role and the bullpen.

Jason Varitek is not getting any younger and there is not a clear cut prospect like they had in the past with now Cleveland Indian Kelly Shoppach no longer waiting in the wings, so the team will definitely need to do some hunting this off-season.

The bullpen, lead by All-Star setup man Hideki “Okey Dokey” Okajima and closer Jonathan “Wild Thing” Papelbon still need some spots filled. They have exercised the contract on Julian Tavarez and re-signed the timeless Mike Timlin, however, they appear to be relying on youth rather than free-agency or trade to solidify their bullpen. Manny DelCarmen has shown some flashes of brilliance, displaying a mean fastball near the mid-90s and the talk is that Clay Buckholz may be billed as a relief pitcher for the ’08 season, but they are still an arm or two short and I do not think that pitchers like RHP Kyle Snyder and LHP Javy Lopez are to be totally relied upon.

If the Red Sox do somehow coerce the Minnesota Twins into a trade for Johan Santana, there will be no doubt that they would be favored to repeat in 2008, which leads me to believe that the Twins will hold out as long as they can for the NY Mets to pull together enough talent to trade Johan to the National League and not have to worry about getting stung by their decision to trade him away.

Fantasy Corner

3 Fantasy Keepers:

1. Josh Beckett – After seeing how poised he was throughout the season, avoiding all but one blister problem and relying on his off-speed stuff more and relying less on simply trying to blow the ball past pitchers, it appears he is primed for many great years to come.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury – What this kid did in the World Series was nothing short of remarkable and easily put his name on the fantasy map. Expect him to start regardless of whether or not Coco Crisp is in a Sox uniform. He has 30-30 written all over him.

3. Clay Buckholz – It is not often that a pitcher is this heralded when he made less than four major league starts in his career, but Buckholz is one of them. You simply cannot throw a no-hitter and not be considered worthy of adding to a keeper league roster.

3 Fantasy Sleepers

1. J.D.Drew – Long known for his batting average (and consistent back problems), J.D. and his bat came to life at the most critical time for the Red Sox and showed why they rendered him such a lucrative, long term contract. With his up and down play throughout his career, he is not valued as high as he should be. He is playing in a ballpark that favors lefties, especially those who have pop at the plate, speed on the base paths, and can spray it to all fields.

2. Manny Ramirez – Now I am not suggesting that you wait till the 10th round to snag him in your fantasy league draft, however, I am saying that there is such hype around younger players and his appearance for declining statistics and slow starts gives you the opportunity to snag him as your second or third outfielder, making you look like a drafting genius come draft day. Many fantasy managers have short term memory and will likely not pay attention to the work that Manny is putting into this off-season. Expect him to blow up to his prototypical 40-100-.300 numbers that you expect from him.

3. Diasake Matsuzaka – Yes, he had a second-half swoon and yes, he demonstrated that he really does not have a “gyro” ball, but when you consider that he regained his confidence towards the end of the season and has never before been in a five-man rotation, going for as long of a season as the majors has, you have to expect that type of growing pains. He will get drafted in some leagues higher than he should, however, he will likely be drafted far later than he should in most leagues.


Next: MLB Hot Stove: New York Yankees, Saturday, January 12th, 2008