Santana and Sox? How it could work!

As the drool continues to cover my chin as I realize the possibility that this deal could get done. Which deal? The deal that the Red Sox and the Twins are currently working! There are a few nay-sayers on each side of the fence, but let me tell you why this deal works for both teams.

THE NAY-SAYERS

The Nay-sayers in Minnesota are upset because they expect the world for Johan Santana and aren’t considering the business-side of these types of deals. The Twins organization face a tough situation as they have sunk tons of money into their new stadium and simply do not have the means or the desire to sign anyone to a deal that is going to tendered to the two-time Cy Young winner. They have three options. Trade Johan before the season begins (in my opinion, getting the most for your team). Wait till the trade deadline and get some good value but not near as much for an all-star with only half a year left on his contract and no guarantee of a long term deal. Or simply do nothing and enjoy the ticket sales until the year is up and hope something better comes along.

The Nay-sayers in Boston are going to be primarily focused on the loss of young left-handed Jon Lester. His story of battling cancer, returning, and playing a big part in their second World Series Trophy in four years will definitely be a hot topic in cooler conversations. Those who are extremely deep in knowledge of the organization will also be upset to see that there is going to be no play at trading away Julio "Last Out" Lugo, bringing up Jed Lowrie to do something along the lines of what Dustin Pedrioa did this year. Lastly, they would be upset if it’s Justin Masterson and not Michael Bowden. Justin has found big fans in both organization and Sox Nation as he screams up the farm system, pushing for the "Bigs".

BREAKING DOWN THE TRADE:

Minnesota lost their CF Torii Hunter to free agency, putting a hole in the line-up and an even bigger hole in their CF.

They made, in my opinion, a daring move (especially if they don’t get all they need out of a Santana deal) by trading away three young and promising players. Starting pitcher Matt Garza, who has shown great flare at the mound since his call-ups in 2007; SS Jason Bartlett who did well, showing speed and pop at the bat; And minor league RP Eduardo Morlan. In return, they upgraded 2B with Brandon, a relatively unknown OF Jason Pridie, and the gem of the deal, RF Delmon Young.

Young is the next big thing in baseball, especially showing sparks of being a "fantasy stud", voted second in rookie of the year ballots in 2007. Delmon brings speed and pop at the plate to replace Hunter and Harris brings some type of restitution to the fan base for departing with 2B Luis Castillo.

The Twins are now left short a centerfielder, a shortstop, and some much needed depth at pitching.

In steps the always opportunistic Theo Epstein, General Manager of the Boston Red Sox and demagogue of Red Sox Nation. The Red Sox are very smart about how they are attempting to lure Santana away from Minnesota. Take a look at how crafty the Sox organization has approached this trade.

The Red Sox are offering the services of …

• Coco Crisp in centerfield, who is a career .280 hitter with some pop at the bat and speed all-around.



• Jed Lowri, their top minor league shortstop in Jed Lowrie (who is making a name for himself across the minor league world)



• World Series starting pitcher Jon Lester (Southpaw), and either two pitching prospects in Justin Masterson (who I am big on) and Michael Bowden.

PIECES OF A PUZZLE

Now, if you ask me, the Red Sox have more and are willing to do more, but not much. When you consider that they are handing them a great fielder and with the exception to his stint with Boston, a very good hitter, Coco Crisp would be a welcome addition for his speed, fielding, hitting, and paycheck. Jon Lester is simply better than Matt Garza and Bartlett was on-again, off-again and could easily be replaced by Jed Lowrie. Add in Justin Masterson and you have yourself a stud in the barn.

If you are unsure about the Red Sox prospects, I shall glance over those who have recently departed from their system. SS Hanley Ramirez (FLA), 3B Freddie Sanchez (PIT), 1B Kevin Youkalis, 2B Dustin Pedroia, CP Jonathan Papelbon, SP Anibel Sanchez (FLA, pitched a no-hitter), C Kelly Shoppach (CLE), SP Jon Lester, and CF Jacoby Ellsbury. If you dare to look at their stats, you will find that these are a fine crop of players and are welcome to most, if not all pro sports teams.

The pieces fit the needs… CF, SS, SP (Crisp, Lowrie, Lester, and Masterson/Bowden).

Unless someone blows them away, in which the Red Sox could counter, this is the Sox' deal to lose... Heck, this might be a done deal by the time the winter meetings end.

Statistocrat

Waiver Wire ~ Week 12

Here continues my "Slim pickin's" approach to the fantasy football waiver wire. Just when you think there isn't a player out there that could impact your overall performance an injury occurs (NE running back corp.) or a breakout performance (Jason Campbell vs. The Dallas Cowboys).

Here are my "three and out" picks for Week 12's waiver wire.

QUARTERBACKS:

Matt Schaub: He appears to be healthy enough to get back to work. The return of Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones makes it even more profitable for the Houston Texans. Ron Dayne needs to continue to step up and perform well enough to keep defenses honest. Expect relatively the same performances he had prior to his hip injury and concussion.

Jason Campbell: Although the Redskins came out with a loss in Week 11, Jason demonstrated great poise and discipline while at the helm for the Washington offense. He is starting not only to show why Coach Joe Gibbs grabbed in him in the first round, but also why you should consider starting him in larger fantasy league formats.

David Garrard: He is not flashy, doesn't put up a ton of yardage or touchdowns in the air but his presence in the offense has sparked even more of a "forward motion" for the Jacksonville Jaguars. His feet give him the edge over most NFL quarterbacks as he has the ability to put his head down and run for a lot of yardage, having just as much possibility for him to run one in as it is to put on in the air.

RUNNING BACKS:

Andre Hall: With Travis Henry nursing his ankles and a suspension looming, it was Selving Young's turn to be the next "Mr. Relevant" in Denver. An injury put a big dent in an otherwise promising "injury filler". In steps Andre who has had a combined eight carries in his career, prior to Week 11's appearance against the Titans. He ripped off a 60+ yard run to solidify his chances of starting, if Selvin rides the pine.

Fred Taylor: The return of David Garrard is only going to improve Taylor's stats. He has the consistency of a seasoned veteran, getting 75 yards a game and a touchdown once in a while. Like Derrick Mason, Taylor has enough consistency to be considered a third option at their position.

Heath Evans: First it was Sammy Morris, then it was Kevin Faulk... Now it is Heath Evans. Heath has done this before, filling in for Corey Dillon for a few weeks almost two years ago. Heath is a fullback with enough field vision and prowess to fill in at the H-back position. No news on Laurence Maroney is not good nor bad as the New England Patriots are tighter with injury information is than the Pentagon is with clearance badges.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Bernard Berrian: Not because he is doing anything different, but because Rex Grossman will do all he can NOT to lose his starting position, which means relying more on those he can trust with the ball. Bernard is that guy. The offense seems to be stepping up, including Muhsin Muhammad, tight ends Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen, and even running back Cedric Benson stepping up their game. Berrian is the speedster of the group and should benefit most from the flourishing offense.

Drew Carter: He isn't fast, does not have great hands, nor is he consistent on his route running, but the Carolina Panthers have no one else to turn to as their team suffers a third consecutive season of season-demoralizing injuries to key players. Drew should get some good looks throughout the rest of the season, even if Steve Smith comes back to full health. When does anyone turn to the way they practice and the trainers for answers?

Arnez Battle: He is the play-maker on an otherwise abysmal offense. Battle has consistenly received 75+ yards, comparable to Derrick Mason. The offense does not lend confidence to starting him in most leagues, but he is averaging enough yards to warrant a third or fourth receiver on most rosters.

TIGHT ENDS:

Donald Lee: Donald Lee is growing into one of the premiere tight ends and no one is really focusing on it. He is tied for fourth most touchdowns for a tight end and has an exceptional match-up on Thanksgiving as the Green Pay Packers pay a visit to the Detroit Lions and their secondary that looks like a "swiss cheese" approach to defense.

Chris Baker: As Kellen Clemens becomes more acclimated to the offense, it appears that Chris Baker will finally come into his own, both fantasy-wise and as a tight end in the NFL in general. He is good pick-up if you are dealing with on-again, off-again tight ends.

Quinn Sypniewski: Heap isn't coming back at least for another week or two which means that Quinn will continue to replace him. The Baltimore offense will through a ton more when Kyle Boller is at the helm and he seems to rely on the tight end position as check down unlike Steve McNair who relied on his own legs or McGahee out of the backfield (or nothing at all and taking a loss of downs by getting rid of it or loss of yardage with a sack.)

And there you have it, this week's waiver wire... love'em or leave'em.

Statistocrat

"Manning's Seventh Pick of the Night"

Just when Peyton Manning thought his night in San Diego couldn't get any worse.....It did.

After throwing a seasons worth of interceptions in one night, Peyton took to the streets of San Diego to have a cocktail to forget about his long day at work. When the waitress noticed him, she paid extra attention to him and made sure he was a happy consumer.

At the end of the night she came out with him and made a pass at him and tried to slip her phone number to him. The pass was intercepted by Antonio Cromartie.

Witnesses say that he came out of nowhere to make his fourth interception of the night. He then kicked Manning in the groin and jumped into a 1987 Dodge Caravan driven by Adam Vinatieri, and mooned the future hall of fame quarterback as it pulled away.

Now obviously this didn't happen, but this is the way that Peyton had to feel at the end of the day. He has had his worst game and will definitely be back his old form this week. He will be at home against a Kansas City defense that was just throttled by the Denver Broncos. I look for Addai to have a big first quarter which will force the Chiefs to load the box. Peyton will take over at that point. If he didn't have a chip on his shoulder before, he does now.

If John Lynch does not play, as he is currently questionable, that will put Hamza Abdullah on the last line of defense. He only has one pass defensed in three years of professional duty. If they try to put him in the box look for lots of play action pass over the top of the former 7th round draft pick.

Look for Indy...BIG...at home on Sunday. If you have players from Indy...Start em....

Sincerely,

Leroy the Fish

Week 11 ~ Waiver Wire

The injuries have made this week's waiver wire worth-while. There are several players that are worth considering, especially in larger league formats.

Take some time to check out your roster and see if any of these players can contribute to the success of your team in the second half of the season.

QUARTERBACKS:

Kyle Boller: With the way that Steve "Air" McNair has been playing, it makes no sense to start him any further, in fantasy or in reality. He has not thrown deep in over three games eluding to the fact that he, unlike Favre, has lost a little in arm strength. He is hesitant in the pocket to release the ball and making poor reads when necessary. Kyle Boller is not much better at reading the defense, however, when the opportunity presents itself, he will at least launch the ball downfield and give his team an opportunity to put points on the board. The defense is on-again, off-again and cannot be relied upon to win them games.

David Garrard: Several people have either released him for a more prominent and available quarterback or saw that Quinn Gray was doing well enough to start him and dropped him for a position player during the plague that is the NFL off-week. David should be back by week 11. Even if he isn't, he is due back shortly and the team is coming off of a much needed win against the Tennessee Titans, keeping their playoff hopes alive.

RUNNING BACKS:

Selvin Young: With Travis Henry dealing with injuries and a potential suspension looming in the wind, Young has shown that he can deliver when counted on. He is a long shot to be available in your league, but if he is available, then he should be on your waiver wire. Expect him to continue to handle the ball as Henry faces all this adversity.

Ryan Grant: After this week, the Green Bay Packers actually have a running game. This is two week's in a row that Grant has shown he can get the job done when given the opportunity. No one, including Grant, saw this opportunity coming. If you were one of the wise (I was not) to pick him up last week, kudos to you. If he is still available, expect him to be gone this week.

Chester Taylor: Time shifts back to last year as Adrian Peterson hits the bench with a knee injury. The Minnesota Vikings do not have an offense to speak of but they mostly rely on the running game. With Peterson out of the way, Chester Taylor becomes sole owner of the touches at running back. He was dropped in plenty of leagues with the emergence of Peterson and will be picked up just as fast.

Chris Henry: With Chris Brown on the rebound and LenDale White with an apparent injury, it will likely be Henry that gets the majority of touches this weekend. He is not a viable, long term pick-up, but like Maurice Morris, can be useful for a week or two.

Maurice Morris: What better incentive than to back up Shaun Alexander and his litany of injuries. He did fairly well last night and may be counted upon for further games as the Seattle Seahawks attempt to rest and rejuvinate their stud running back.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Chris Henry: He was a threat two years ago and with another week under his belt, should be on his way to that same level in the coming weeks. With all of three of their top wide receivers and their star running back on the field again, the Cincinnati Bengals look to turn around their season and at worst, make the season look respectable to their fans.

Arnez Battle: He is the only one that is producing at wide receiver for San Fransisco. He may be the ONLY one performing well in San Fransisco. Arnez is among the top 25 wide receivers in yards per game and if nothing else, can be viewed as a good 3rd or quality 4th wide receiver in any line-up.

D.J. Hackett: Can D.J. Hackett finally live up to expectations? Matt Hasselbeck turned to him several times last night in their blow-out win of the San Fransisco 49ers and can't see that changing to much even when Deion Branch finally returns to the field. To be honest, the person that will get hit the most, production-wise, may be Nate Burleson.

TIGHT ENDS:

Will Heller: Here comes another Seattle Seahawk making the waiver wire. Heller has come on strong in the last two fantasy weeks. He is a viable option to pick-up to replace either an injured T0ny Scheffler, a poor start by Vernon Davis, or simply because there is such a lack of depth at this position.

Leonard Pope: Leonard will not net you a ton of yards, but what he has shown is that he is target that will be turned to in the red zone. He is a great, young talent and will grow into this line-up as the Arizona Cardinals try and make a playoff run in the coming weeks.

It is a small list, but there are some solid candidates to be considered when adding depth to your line-up or filling in for major/minor injuries to your starting staff.

Good Luck and Happy Hunting (for free agents, that is.).

Statistocrat

"Call for a 'Priest', we just lost Johnson"

As all but the most faithful of Chief fans mourn the lose of Larry Johnson, and their season, the organization appears to have been planning for it. They've called in the 'Priest' to administer the last rites of the offense, their star running back, and handing over control to their Father of yardage.

It seems like eons since we last used the name Priest Holmes and the phrase "starting running back", but those days are amidst us again.

When discussions started popping up in late July and early August about the reemergence of this prolific running back, , it appeared that it was crazy, to say the least, that we would see him revive his career at any level, let alone play in a game. This running back once holding the single season record for most touchdowns in a season... now he is coming off a three year hiatus with no guarantees bey0nd L.J.'s return.

He not only proved through spring training release and reattempt that he could, that his drive would prove to be as strong as ever. Now it is even more evident that he may in fact see significant time on the field. I do not believe that this is going to revive either his career or the flailing offense of the Chiefs, but it may at least cushion the blow of a disappointing season with one of the cities most believed of football characters.

As if the inability of veteran Huard (8 TDs, 9 INTs) and Brodie Croyle's poor decision-making skills, the loss of L.J. should be absolutely crushing to Chief's fans. The defensive secondary, the emergence of Rookie Dwayne Bowe, and the career records of Tony Gonzalez are the only things that keep fans going to games. Maybe the return of Priest can keep them in their seats and save the corporate ownership from holding flea markets and bake sales in the parking lot next spring to keep the doors open.

FANTASY IMPACT: As much as I can't believe that I am saying this, Priest could have more of an impact than most of the injury replacements popping up around the league right now. Heck, Holmes may have more impact than the majority of the starting running backs in the league, as it stands today. He should have more of an impact than back-up running backs Echemandu (HOU) and the recent departed Michael Bennett (TB), more consistent than Fargas (OAK) and Jesse Chatman (MIA), and have better second half statistics than starters Alexander (SEA), Gore (SFO), and Jones (NYJ). I won't neglect to mention several others who have been spotty, if showing up at all [Edge (ARI), Dunn (ATL), Maroney (NE)].

So break out all your old Priest Holmes jerseys, paint you face Chief's red, and watch him make his return to the gridiron this coming Sunday as the Chiefs play host to one of the worst run defenses in the league, the Denver Broncos.

Statistocrat

Week 10 ~ Waiver Wire

Here continues my "slim pickin's" approach to the waiver wire watch. This week, we have a few teams on a bye-week that have big fantasy impacts. All right, so maybe it's mostly the Patriots, but with Brady, Maroney, Welker, Stallworth, Moss, Watson, and the D/ST, it's a pretty big hit to some fantasy teams

BYE-WEEK: TEXANS, PATRIOTS, JETS, BUCCANEERS

Here is a look at who may be available on your waiver-wire and why you should pick them up to fill-in for injuries and bye-weeks.

QUARTERBACKS:

Patrick Ramsey: Patrick is not the greatest pick-up, but for teams that require two quarterbacks or someone who relied on Jay Cutler, this is your guy. The Denver defense couldn't handle the Lions nor could their offense for that matter. Shanahan is intelligent and will limit Ramsey's attempts next week, relying mostly on the run game to produce points, but he is still a quarterback and they are few and far between, when it comes to availability.

J.P. Losman: If for some reason you didn't believe me last week, you should now. Losman has something to prove and he will do it on the field. It helps that Lynch is fully entrenched at the RB position and Lee Evans is starting to produce like we thought he would all season. Expect Buffalo to make a big second half splash and Losman will have a great deal to do with it.

David Garrard: He is likely going to be be back Week 11 but all hopes are that he is available for Week 10. If it turns out to be 11, at least you have him and are ready to re-insert him into the line-up to replace whomever it is that you have been substituting on a weekly basis at your QB position. Garrard has yet to throw a pick and has the ability to get it done with his legs too.


RUNNING BACKS:

Priest Holmes: It looks like the only ones who are going to survive the Larry Johnson injury are those who have him in keeper leagues... all others are going to be absolutely miserable (myself included in a few leagues). Who knows how well he will do, but he is better than anything else available at the present moment. If you own Johnson, Priest is tops on your waiver wire requests.

Kevin Faulk: With the way the Patriots are running their offense, the second back gets enough touches to be considered a fantasy impact. With Sammy Morris gone for the season, Kevin has shown that he is THAT guy. Grab'em while he's hot, especially with the bye week coming, most will wait...you shouldn't.

Michael Robinson: With the 49ers heading down an ugly road and Frank Gore ailing with numerous injuries, expect the 49ers to protect their RB asset. You may very well see more and more of Robinson as the season progresses, giving him time to develop into a true NFL back. This is a guess on my part, but it makes sense.

Najeh Davenport: Mike Tomlin told reporters that he wants Parker to get first shot at the end zone, but after that, it's Davenport they will rely on... When the match-up is right, he is a great fill-in, sometimes even better than starting Parker. If you need depth, he may very will fill your roster needs.

DeShaun Foster: He is being relied upon more and more as the passing game has gone sour. Steve Smith was clearly missing (even though he played, 1 reception for 15 yards???). Foster has been a career second half back and if you didn't grab'em last week, go for him this week.


WIDE RECEIVERS:

Reggie Williams: He is clearly the best WR the Jaguars have and Quinn & Garrard both like to go deep with him. The more they try, the better they are getting... He only had two receptions this past Sunday, but totalled 78 yards. Nuff' said.

Marques Colston: Here he comes again. The Saints look good and Colston is making the most of his opportunities. He had 159 yards this week and 3 TDs the week before. He is only available in a few leagues, but maybe yours is one of them.

Derrick Mason: Here is a guy who is quietly putting up great fantasy numbers, averaging 76.3 yds a game. He enjoyed the absence of Heap and now has the confidence of the QB to be relied upon even when Todd returns. He is a great 3rd WR in most leagues.

Shawn McDonald: Right when 90% of owners drop him, he makes them add him back to their roster throught the waiver wire. Expect his production to continue now that the running game of Detroit is working fairly well...


TIGHT ENDS:

Donald Lee: He is turning into Bubba Franks while Franks is still on the team. We all know that the "Packers equals passing yards", with no run game to speak of... Donald Lee is turning into a go-to guy, especially as a check down now that they have determined that the RBs can't get it done.

Jeff King: As the team relies on Carr to get the job done, King becomes invaluable, especially when there isn't a second WR to worry the secondary of their opponents. King is second on the receptions chart for the Panthers and will be called upon more than most TEs in the league from here forward. A great substitute if you own Big Ben Watson.

David Martin: Here is a guy who can have a big impact during the second half of the season. With limited running ability, the trading of WR Chris Chambers, Martin becomes the third option (if you count Nick Hagan as the second). Look for him to have a better than average second half. [Check to see if he is going to be available as he is nursing an ankle injury]


These are my picks for waiver wire that may/should still be available in most free agents pools. I hope that this blog helps you fill some line-up voids and continues your progress to a league championship.


Statistocrat

"Agent 0" meets "Mean Green 3"

Is this a dream fit or a fight in the making...Only time will tell.

The "TD Banknohhth Gahhden" will be, simply put, frenzied tonight as thousands of Green fans hit the streets of Boston to see their new team. Although two years removed from Massachusetts, I myself will be glued to the tube as the Wizards and Agent 0 come a knockin' on the Celtics' door. There is much to be said for the matchups and how the game will end, so I dare to take on this endeavor to overview the season-opening game of the C's.

First, we must look at the hype that has been built up by no one but "Agent 0" himself. Gilbert Arenas has been quoted (The Washington Post) as saying....

"On November 2nd, we're going to go into that building, we're opening up Boston," Arenas wrote. "Right now I'm telling the Boston fans: You guys are going to lose. It's not going to be a victory for Boston. You might as well just cheer for me, because Boston isn't winning in Boston for the season opener. I'm sorry."

The best part about this article is the quote that Gilbert gave after their season-opening loss to the Pacers (mind you, without Jermaine O'Neil and Troy Murphy) was quoted, when asked about tonight's game verse the C's....

"Nah, I'm not making any predictions."

In my opinon, that was a smart move. Don't get me wrong, this Wizard's team IS good... and should be better, but they suffered a huge loss with starting Center Eton Thomas developing a heart condition that is likely put him out for the season. Here is a quick look at the positional matchups by statistics per game (career) for the starting line-ups projected tonight:

[p=points per game; b=blocks; a=assists; s=steals; r=rebounds; m=minutes]

(C ) PG Rajon Rondo: 6-1 171 lbs; 6.4/p; 3.8/a; 1.6/s; 3.7/r; 23.5/m

(W) PG Deshawn Stevenson: 6-5 218 lbs; 8.2/p; 1.7/a; .05/s; 2.4/r; 23.1/m

(C ) SG Ray Allen: 6-5 205 lbs; 21.5/p; 3.9/a; 1.3/s; 4.6/r; 37.5/m

(W) SG Gilber Arenas: 6-4 215 lbs; 22.9.p; 5.5/a; 1.8/s; 4.2/r; 37.5/m

(C ) PF Kevin Garnett: 6-11 220 lbs; 20.5/p; 1.7/b; 4.5/a; 11.4/r; 38.3/m

(W) PF Antwan Jamison: 6-9 235 lbs: 19.4/p; 0.3/b; 1.8/a; 7.7/r; 36.4/m

(C ) SF Paul Pierce: 6-7 235 lbs; 23.6/p: 1.7/s; 3.9/a; 6.5/r; 37.8/m

(W) SF Caron Butler: 6-7 228 lbs; 15.4/p; 1.6/s; 2.5/a; 5.8/r; 35.5/m

(C ) C Kendrick Perkins: 6-10 208 lbs; 4.0/p, 1.1/b, 0.9/s, 4.6/r, 16.6/m

(W) C Brendan Haywood: 7-0 263 lbs; 6.9/p, 1.3/b, .04/s, 5.7/r, 22.9/m

When you look, position by position, it appears a lot closer than it should be. The Wizards have their own three, Arenas, Butler, and Jamison to match up with the Celtics Allen, Pierce, and Garnett. This should make for an exciting game.

The question is not who wins the battle at these three positions as much as it is who wins at the other two...

THE "QUESTIONS":

Can the size and strength of Wizard's point guard Stevenson overwhelm Rondo or will the passing ability of Rondo eliminate the size difference and focus the battle more on a team level than a positional level?

Can Kendrick Perkins overcome the size and ability of Brandon Haywood to get in the box and put up points or is this a position that is focused solely on rebounds and ability to get open for the quick dump and an easy bucket?

THE "BENCH" FACTOR:

When I review the two benches, it appears to me that the Celtics, although experience-wise might be a little behind, definitely should outperform the Wizards bench, based on talent alone. Tony Allen, Eddie House, Glen "Baby" Davis, and Scott Pollard should be able to stabilize the game during the times in which the trio need to breathe. The Wizards have a young and savvy bunch as well, but skill for skill, the Celtics win the bench wars.

THE "PREDICTION":

I believe that the Celtics ultimately win this game, not so much because of the big three because they can and will, at times, be stabilized by the Wizards' own three, but because of a few key factors.

One. The "Home Court" advantage will play a huge part, mostly because the Celtics' fans are rabbid for a "real team" and will packed in the Gahhden like sahhdines."

Two. The "Pass Factor" is overwhelming when you compare cumulative assists per game, having Rondo, Allen, and Garnett focused on the open man while the Wizards are a sort of "shoot first, look for the pass second" type of team and will ultimately affect the outcome of the game.

Three. Contrary to popular belief of three stars and only one ball, the historical data of these three are that they are on fairly good teams who have had to use the pass to stay effective AND they have all been on "close but no cigar" teams, when discussing NBA Championships and are ready to take a page out of the New England Patriots book (it worked for the Red Sox, didn't it?)

The game will be at 8:00 pm EDT on ESPN. Don't miss it!!!!

There you have it... my first article about the NBA and of course it's about my C's.

Statistocrat

Week 9 ~ Sit'em

This week brings a mixed bag of studs and back-ups that you should consider riding the pine (granted you have someone to fill their shoes).



With the Bears, Dolphins, Giants, and Rams on a bye week, there are a few offensive and defensive players that hit you in mouth, especially as we grow nearer and nearer to the "point of no return" when considering playoff potential for your fantasy team.



I, myself, have spent time torn between those who are fantasy studs and those who have good match-ups. I can only hope that this insight, as well as what I have offered all season, helps.



QUARTERBACKS:



John Kitna: Unfortunately for Kitna and his owners, this is not a week to start him. Kitna, concussions and all, face the Denver secondary... who leads the league, or at least in the top five, in almost every statistical category. Jon has several options to go to but the question is going to be answered whether to start him based on whether or not you think they can establish a run game.



Sage Rosenfels: He is slated to start over Matt Schaub and his case of "Carr's syndrome" (where you are pummeled weekly for a lack of offensive line). He has a cannon for an arm and speedy WRs, but like Kitna, faces a tough secondary, the Oakland Raiders. I don't anticipate good numbers from Sage.



Jeff Garcia: Jeff may throw his first pick of the season this week as he has to force balls to Hilliard and Galloway. He faces an underrated secondary in the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards have shown that they are weak upfront, but tough when going mid to deep. I anticipate a lot more out of the backfield than usual.



Derek Anderson: "Earth to Derek...Earth to Derek...it's time to come home". Derek Anderson and the high flying Melendez act of the Cleveland Brown's will likely come to a scretching halt as they square off against the Seattle Seahawks. The Hawks have simply been one of the most dominant defenses in the NFL. They don't have the "W"s to show it because of the lack of consistancy on the offense, but they are TOUGH.



Drew Brees: Sorry Brees owners but it is likely to be another disappointing week. Drew plays host to one of the hardest hitting defenses in the league. The loss of Mike Stroud may limit the ability of the Jags defense up front, leading to frequent Reggie Bush sightings, but the Jags will still punish you if you try to go more than 8 yards a pop.



RUNNING BACKS:



DeShaun Foster: He is a second half guy so picking him up of the waiver wire is a must, but I advise against starting him this week. Carolina is best on the road, but that doesn't phase the Tennessee Titans' Terribly Tenacious Defense (couldn't help it with the illiteration, it just came to me). Keith Bullock and the boys have shown that they know how to keep themselves in the game.



Willis McGahee: Baltimore faces the Steelers, in Pittsburgh, and open to punishing blows. Pittsburgh's 4-3 defense is the real McCoy. With the PIT D/ST ranking in the top 3 in both passing and rushing defense, I can't see McGahee doing to much here. If you can, go with a solid back-up like Earnest Graham or A. Echemandu.



Adrian Peterson: Here is another call to come back to Earth. Adrian is good...REAL GOOD. So good in fact that I took him with my first pick in my 3 player keeper league, but that doesn't mean he is going to stud-out every week. MIN faces one of the toughest front sevens in the NFL, the San Diego Chargers.



Maurice Jones-Drew: Here is a player that appears to be in the process of breaking out of a slump... but he is also fighting off an injury and facing a defense that typical stinks (NO), but has very good ability at stopping the run. Can't see him doing too, too much here.



Jamal Lewis: The boot is off, but that was the physical boot... now he faces a new "boot", the one that will be planted in his behind. Seattle is no joke when it comes to stopping the run, which will be easy as Jamal has an average yardage of less than 4. Don't play any Cleveland running back, come to think of it.



WIDE RECEIVERS:



Larry Fitzgerald: I hate putting him here, but with Bolding back, Warner likely at the helm, and Tampa Bay ready to pummel wide recievers (6th best pass defense & 3rd best passing touchdowns). Larry will have an average day with approximately 8 catches for under 80 yards.



Andre Davis: Sorry Texans fans, but if anything, Walter sees more touches than Davis. Oakland is getting it's "secondary legs" back and this means a tough day for Sage and his WR corp. This will be a run first, run second, pass if necessary day, whether ahead or behind.



Roy Williams: He is good, very good. He has a great, young wide receiver lining up across from him, but the secondary lining up on the other side of the ball is great, really great. Denver is a tough secondary to take advantage of. They have had some weak moments in the past few weeks, but that may be all but done. Champ Bailey is nursing some injuries, but even at 80% is still better than 95% of the cornerbacks in the league. Hopefully John Lynch's neck isn't serious and Champ plays, or I will look foolish with this pick.



Joey Galloway: Can you say 6o yards, no TDs? I see this being a game of 'Zona passing and TB playing run and catch out of the backfield a lot. Garcia is best for short yardage gains and Galloway has used his speed to get by defenders. This won't be the case this Sunday as Arizona has speed like no other in the secondary.



Brylon Edwards: Sorry Cleveland fans, but Edwards will be a mere human come the final click on the clock. Seattle is just THAT GOOD. He may see 85+ yards, but I just don't see him being someone to start unless you have no other choice... There are a lot of fantasy WRs that have far better match-ups.



Marques Colston: No 3 TDs, not even 100 YDs... Colston was awesome last year because he came out of the TE... maybe with Patten now playing and Henderson and Cooper running routes cleaner, they can do more of the split options they had for him last year, but until Sean Peyton fixes his offensive outlook, Marques is average. (Watch Peyton listen to me and make me look like a Dunderhead!0



TIGHT ENDS:



Kellen Winslow: Like all the other Browns, I recommend you give Kellen a seat, if you can. There are some really average TEs that could have extraordinary days... and like Kellen, there are some top TEs that have some poor match-ups.



Todd Heap: They haven't said if he will definitely play, but even if he does, he faces the Pittsburgh D/ST. Do I need to continue with this? I don't think so.



Vernon Davis: Atlanta can't do much, but what they can do is continue to grow in their ability to defend the pass. Smith is still working back into the speed of the NFL, and testing the limits of his shoulder injury. The Falcons won't win much, but they will stop Davis from having his way with their defense.



Chris Baker: Although back in the swing of things, it isn't like he is going to overwhelm the angry and irate 'Skins defense. The 'Skins will take out their butt whooping from last week on the Jets offense. Now, with Coles listed as questionable, Baker would be more relied upon, if only they had an offense which could produce yardage. Clemens will be eaten alive and the rest of the Jets with them.





This is all my opinion, but I think that I considered a lot of data to determine these players as candidates to sit and watch this week. Only time will tell if I am accurate or not.



Statistocrat

Supaah Bowl...In Novembahhh!!!!

[ Super Bowl MVPs Manning and Brady face each other in Week 9.]

I don't care who you are, which conference you pull for, or which team your allegiance is sworn to... this IS your 2007 Super Bowl.

Not only is this the best rivalry in football, it's the biggest meeting of these two teams in their history. Yes, I realize they have met umpteen times for divisional championships, but none has had a bigger magnetic pull then the 4:15 pm game in Indianapolis this weekend. Never before in NFL history has two teams with records 7-0 teams (or better) met to play in a regular season game.

This is a battle of the reigning Super Bowl Champs and a team on pace for NFL history...How does it get better than this!!!

Let's face it, when discussing the two quarterbacks, you can't mention one quarterback without mentioning the other (or at least think of the other). Each are champions of the gridiron, demonstrating an uncanny ability to read defenses, call audibles, and utilize the staff and the system provided to them.




What makes this game so incredible is the uncanny similarities in the two teams. It has never been a closer match-up. Let me explain...





The Offense:



Peyton Manning has Marvin Harrison (Dungy says he will practice Thursday and play Sunday), Reggie Wayne, and Anthony Gonzalez at WR;
Tom Brady has Randy "M-awesome", Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker.



Manning has an unbelievable TE in Dallas Clark;
Brady with Ben Watson (practicing and expected to play).



Indianapolis has a 2006, 1st round running back in Joseph Addai;
New England also has a 2006, 1st round running back in Laurence Maroney.





The Defense:



Both have Pro-Bowl Defensive ends (IND~Dwight Freeney; NE~Richard Seymour).
They both have hard-hitting, roving Safeties (IND~Bob Sanders; NE~Rodney Harrison).
Both teams are tied with a turnover ratio of +11.
Each team can be susceptible to the run but can make a QB's day absolutely miserable.




Both have kickers who can get the job done...


Adam Vinatieri is 14 of 15 (93.3%) with a long of 39 yards
Stephen Gostkowski is 10 of 11 (90.9%) with a long of 45 yards


The Colts have an average of 18.1 yards per punt return.
The Pats have an average of 5.5 yards per punt return.


The Colts have an average of 24.7 yards per kick return (1 TD)
The Pats have an average of 22.6 yards per kick return (2 TD)



INDY averages 44.9 yards per punt.
NE averages 46.0 yards per punt.



When I review the teams and their history, it isn't the offense weapons, the defensive prowess, the special teams play, or even the "Home Field Advantage" that separates the two teams...





The difference is... are you ready for this?




THE OFFENSIVE LINE.





The reason I am selecting the Patriots to win this coming Sunday is because of the comparison of the offensive lines...



The Patriots offensive line has shown week in and week out that they are not only the most "in tune" with each other of any line in the NFL, but their depth and ability to switch positions is something that isn't seen in any line in the past. Simply put, these guys know each other better than most of their families do, predicting decisions and sacrificing for each other and the team.



The o-line is the ultimate reason I am selecting the Patriots to win.



Sure, Mathis and Freeney will get there shots, but the biggest difference is the health of the two lines...Patriots at full strength and the Colts without Tony Ugoh at clearly the most important position on the offensive line.




Another thing to consider are the injuries sustained by the Colts.. They have listed starting Left Tackle Tony Ugoh as questionable with a shoulder injury, starting CB Marlon Jackson is listed as day-to-day with a neck injury, and WR Marvin Harrison is still nursing a knee injury. (AND no "Booger" McFarland for the season, to boot).



This will not be a ridiculous game, point-wise, but I believe that we will see something like 52 - 60 points total (each defense averages around 15 p.p.g., which means that even doubling them brings it to 6o tops).



My pick: Patriots win 30 - 27.






Statistocrat