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Thursday, November 1, 2007

Week 9 ~ Sit'em

This week brings a mixed bag of studs and back-ups that you should consider riding the pine (granted you have someone to fill their shoes).



With the Bears, Dolphins, Giants, and Rams on a bye week, there are a few offensive and defensive players that hit you in mouth, especially as we grow nearer and nearer to the "point of no return" when considering playoff potential for your fantasy team.



I, myself, have spent time torn between those who are fantasy studs and those who have good match-ups. I can only hope that this insight, as well as what I have offered all season, helps.



QUARTERBACKS:



John Kitna: Unfortunately for Kitna and his owners, this is not a week to start him. Kitna, concussions and all, face the Denver secondary... who leads the league, or at least in the top five, in almost every statistical category. Jon has several options to go to but the question is going to be answered whether to start him based on whether or not you think they can establish a run game.



Sage Rosenfels: He is slated to start over Matt Schaub and his case of "Carr's syndrome" (where you are pummeled weekly for a lack of offensive line). He has a cannon for an arm and speedy WRs, but like Kitna, faces a tough secondary, the Oakland Raiders. I don't anticipate good numbers from Sage.



Jeff Garcia: Jeff may throw his first pick of the season this week as he has to force balls to Hilliard and Galloway. He faces an underrated secondary in the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards have shown that they are weak upfront, but tough when going mid to deep. I anticipate a lot more out of the backfield than usual.



Derek Anderson: "Earth to Derek...Earth to Derek...it's time to come home". Derek Anderson and the high flying Melendez act of the Cleveland Brown's will likely come to a scretching halt as they square off against the Seattle Seahawks. The Hawks have simply been one of the most dominant defenses in the NFL. They don't have the "W"s to show it because of the lack of consistancy on the offense, but they are TOUGH.



Drew Brees: Sorry Brees owners but it is likely to be another disappointing week. Drew plays host to one of the hardest hitting defenses in the league. The loss of Mike Stroud may limit the ability of the Jags defense up front, leading to frequent Reggie Bush sightings, but the Jags will still punish you if you try to go more than 8 yards a pop.



RUNNING BACKS:



DeShaun Foster: He is a second half guy so picking him up of the waiver wire is a must, but I advise against starting him this week. Carolina is best on the road, but that doesn't phase the Tennessee Titans' Terribly Tenacious Defense (couldn't help it with the illiteration, it just came to me). Keith Bullock and the boys have shown that they know how to keep themselves in the game.



Willis McGahee: Baltimore faces the Steelers, in Pittsburgh, and open to punishing blows. Pittsburgh's 4-3 defense is the real McCoy. With the PIT D/ST ranking in the top 3 in both passing and rushing defense, I can't see McGahee doing to much here. If you can, go with a solid back-up like Earnest Graham or A. Echemandu.



Adrian Peterson: Here is another call to come back to Earth. Adrian is good...REAL GOOD. So good in fact that I took him with my first pick in my 3 player keeper league, but that doesn't mean he is going to stud-out every week. MIN faces one of the toughest front sevens in the NFL, the San Diego Chargers.



Maurice Jones-Drew: Here is a player that appears to be in the process of breaking out of a slump... but he is also fighting off an injury and facing a defense that typical stinks (NO), but has very good ability at stopping the run. Can't see him doing too, too much here.



Jamal Lewis: The boot is off, but that was the physical boot... now he faces a new "boot", the one that will be planted in his behind. Seattle is no joke when it comes to stopping the run, which will be easy as Jamal has an average yardage of less than 4. Don't play any Cleveland running back, come to think of it.



WIDE RECEIVERS:



Larry Fitzgerald: I hate putting him here, but with Bolding back, Warner likely at the helm, and Tampa Bay ready to pummel wide recievers (6th best pass defense & 3rd best passing touchdowns). Larry will have an average day with approximately 8 catches for under 80 yards.



Andre Davis: Sorry Texans fans, but if anything, Walter sees more touches than Davis. Oakland is getting it's "secondary legs" back and this means a tough day for Sage and his WR corp. This will be a run first, run second, pass if necessary day, whether ahead or behind.



Roy Williams: He is good, very good. He has a great, young wide receiver lining up across from him, but the secondary lining up on the other side of the ball is great, really great. Denver is a tough secondary to take advantage of. They have had some weak moments in the past few weeks, but that may be all but done. Champ Bailey is nursing some injuries, but even at 80% is still better than 95% of the cornerbacks in the league. Hopefully John Lynch's neck isn't serious and Champ plays, or I will look foolish with this pick.



Joey Galloway: Can you say 6o yards, no TDs? I see this being a game of 'Zona passing and TB playing run and catch out of the backfield a lot. Garcia is best for short yardage gains and Galloway has used his speed to get by defenders. This won't be the case this Sunday as Arizona has speed like no other in the secondary.



Brylon Edwards: Sorry Cleveland fans, but Edwards will be a mere human come the final click on the clock. Seattle is just THAT GOOD. He may see 85+ yards, but I just don't see him being someone to start unless you have no other choice... There are a lot of fantasy WRs that have far better match-ups.



Marques Colston: No 3 TDs, not even 100 YDs... Colston was awesome last year because he came out of the TE... maybe with Patten now playing and Henderson and Cooper running routes cleaner, they can do more of the split options they had for him last year, but until Sean Peyton fixes his offensive outlook, Marques is average. (Watch Peyton listen to me and make me look like a Dunderhead!0



TIGHT ENDS:



Kellen Winslow: Like all the other Browns, I recommend you give Kellen a seat, if you can. There are some really average TEs that could have extraordinary days... and like Kellen, there are some top TEs that have some poor match-ups.



Todd Heap: They haven't said if he will definitely play, but even if he does, he faces the Pittsburgh D/ST. Do I need to continue with this? I don't think so.



Vernon Davis: Atlanta can't do much, but what they can do is continue to grow in their ability to defend the pass. Smith is still working back into the speed of the NFL, and testing the limits of his shoulder injury. The Falcons won't win much, but they will stop Davis from having his way with their defense.



Chris Baker: Although back in the swing of things, it isn't like he is going to overwhelm the angry and irate 'Skins defense. The 'Skins will take out their butt whooping from last week on the Jets offense. Now, with Coles listed as questionable, Baker would be more relied upon, if only they had an offense which could produce yardage. Clemens will be eaten alive and the rest of the Jets with them.





This is all my opinion, but I think that I considered a lot of data to determine these players as candidates to sit and watch this week. Only time will tell if I am accurate or not.



Statistocrat

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