Week 4 ~ "Sit'em"

This is an exciting week as there are a ton of "starters" that I believe will not have a good showing by the time the week is out. There are many players that could fall into the category of "Sit'em", but I believe these are the ones that could make or break your week. Unfortunately, I am listing half of my keeper league's team, but that just comes with the territory.

Here are this week's "Sit'em"...

QUARTERBACKS:

Jon Kitna: I realize that he is a gun-slinging mad-man with tons of talent and opportunity (Williams, Ca. Johnson, S. McDonald, M. Furrey), however, they are facing a staunch defense that is prone to break you down as the game progresses. Chicago has the ability to rush the pass and rush defense like no other. Similar to Baltimore and now San Fransisco's defense, it's the front 7 that dictates how this game goes. They WILL stop the run, will hurry Kitna frequently and will turn this into a battle of turnovers. Kitna will "get his", but I don't feel that it is going to be a fairly profitable week regarding fantasy points.

Jay Cutler: He has shown that he isn't ready regardless of how calculated Mike Shanahan is. The run hasn't been the typical Bronco's strength which has lead for them to rely more on the pass to deliver points on the board. With Javon's knee basically sidelining him, if not, at least slowing him down enough that he cannot get behind the average backfield. INDY has shown that they are above average, at least with the punishing blows of Bob "The Nailer" Sanders wrecking havoc from literally anywhere on the field. Brandon Marshall will have enough of a showing to start him, but Cutler will be ineffective against a hungry defense and a potent offense. The most likely will play from behind the whole game with many INTs possible.

Matt Leinart: I want him to be successful, but after his first three weeks, it doesn't seem possible. PIT is ruthless in their pursuit of the quarterback and the wide receivers, which is the majority of the Cardinals offensive strength. The Cardinals WILL be held to a one dimensional offense this week... Running the ball. I anticipate another mid-game swap as Warner's abilty to quickly read defenses and just as quick to get rid of the ball. Either way, many picks, dropped passes, quarterback hurries and sacks, as the Steelers have their way with the 'Zona offense.

Eli Manning: He has been surprisingly successful up to this point of the season. That streak ends Sunday. I cannot see him doing too much with an ailing Burress, a young talent in Steve Smith, a slowing/aging Amani Toomer, and an average run game. The only thing saving him is the quality of the offensive line. Jeremy Shockey will be a great start, but even he won't do more than 65 YDs and a TD.

RUNNINGBACKS:

Rudi Johnson: He hasn't do too, too much so far and I don't expect it to be much better this week. Regardless that CIN is at home, have great receivers, an amazing quarterback, and a better than average offensive line, the only factor that matters is this.... They are facing the NE Patriots defense. When you hold Thomas Jones, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Marshawn Lynch to under 50 YDs, you can't expect Rudi Johnson to do much more than that. This hurts as he is my top runningback in many leagues (where I picked 7th or later, including my keeper league).

Larry Johnson: Two weeks ago, I told you to sit him and for the most part, I was right. I got tons of people telling me "you just don't sit Larry Johnson"... The response I give is, "YES....YES YOU DO!!!" Don't get hung up on last years stats, his "namesake" or his potential... Not when he is essentially still in training camp mode, has a weak offense (besides the line) and truly hasn't done enough to say he is ready to shoulder his offense and earn the massive amounts of money he received. Sit'em... He will be ready in another two weeks, but he is not the answer.... San Diego is too tough in the run-defense department.... instead, look for KC to capitalize on the weak secondary of SD.

Cadillac Williams: Recently, he has looked like the Cadillac of old... The rookie "Cadillac", not the sophomore slump "Cadillac". Unfortunate for Williams' owners, he is facing a tough run-defense at Carolina. He will see more work out of the screen and swing routes through the air than he will see statistics on the ground. He will rebound, but expect a tough week.

Warrick Dunn: He appears to be fairly healthy, but the loss of Vick takes away from the effectiveness of Dunn. The defense doesn't have to protect every inch of the field, which allows them to hurry Harrington and crowd the line on obvious run downs (1 and 10) (2 and 5 or less). Atlanta is facing a young, tough, and aggressive defensive line... I don't expect him to really do anything of note this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Plaxico Burress: If you are going to see a specialist, it can't look too promising, not with the quality of internal medical staffing for these NFL corporations. He has pushed through to date with outstanding results. I think this is the week that either they sit him for a "quick recovery" or he fights through it and has difficulty against a motivated Philly secondary, even without Brian Dawkins. I have been wrong with "Plastic-O" before, but think I am right on with this assessment.

Tory Holt: According to Marc Bulger history, he always tanks in the first three games which is why I don't draft him, but trade for him right around this time... GMs get fed up easy with their quarterbacks. Holt is still hobbled by a knee injury and will not benefit from a quarterback with broken ribs, a starting "elite" runningback that is out, and a Dallas defense that is quickly growing into the mold that Wade Phillips envisions with this line-up. Again, another keeper and often drafted by myself, this is a tough pill to swallow.

Calvin Johnson: Chicago Bears. Need I say more. I think that Kitna will struggle mightily, affecting Johnson and the rest of the Lions offense. He is listed as probable, but don't think it is much, but the bottom-line is, they are facing an extremely difficult defense who likes to mask their secondary, exposing poor decisions by the quarterback and bad route-running by the wide receiver. He is a phenomenal talent and has an extremely bright future, but this will not be a day he will shining.

Roddy White: Each week he has grown statistically. Harrington is developing a relationship with White, however, Houston is going to make the Falcon's look bad and White will come down to earth like Randel El has recently done. I expect that he will get his chances, I just don't see this being a big day for him or the Falcons.

TIGHT ENDS:

Kellen Winslow: The fact is, he is injured (SHOCKING!!) Additionally, the Browns are palying the Ravens, regardless that they are at home. I think that this is going to be a blow-out with Baltimore simply running away with it (literally, I think McGahee has a HUGE day). Winslow will see limited action, especially if they get down early. Romeo may be a bad coach, but he isn't stupid.

Dallas Clark: I think he will be stymied by the Denver Defense. I don't have any facts to back it up, just a gut feeling that they will rely heavily on Addai and a young Anthony Gonzalez this week, thinking they can simply go underneath enough (Addai & Gonzalez, to get him in the mix) that they can open up the field, keep the secondary honest, and burn them with a safety corp. that is strong/powerful, but not necessarily fast.

Randy McMichael: Why sign a guy if you aren't going to use him. This can go either way, either Bulger thinks he's superman, attempting the same, long, drawn out plays to get WRs deep and gets demolished or due to the Leonard experiment, poor offensive line, and cracked ribs, relies heavily on McMichael. Unfortunately, he doesn't call plays, make audibles from the line, or anticipate anything other than what is given, therefore lending itself to the "superman" complex more than the "checkdown" approach.

I hope that this information proves valuable when Week 4 is done and in the books. There are some picks that I think could pay off... it could back fire... but such is life in the NFL and the fantasy world.

Happy Managing!!!

Statistocrat