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Thursday, September 13, 2007

Fantasy Football ~ Week 2: "Start'em"

As stated in my previous blog, I am going to give you my "Sit'em" and "Start'em" opinions for each coming week. Most of these are not the obvious, top tier players, but focused on those who are most likely on your "depth charts" for the tough games that your starters match-up against. (Ex. L.T. vs. Chicago Defense last week). Here are my suggested "Start'em"s based upon match-up, historical vs. data, and health.


QB Vince Young: Let me start by saying, I am impressed with Vince Young, but still not "bought in" yet... their offense has a long way to go, however, they have a ton of above-average talent at the RB position and it is entirely possible to run agains Indy. With the loss of "Booger" McFarland, the Colts defense is using a lot of backfield assistance to make stops. This is something that you can't do if you are playing Tennessee. Young and his mobility, as well as arm strength, will force Indy to change it's approach. V.Y. like Reggie Bush changes your approach. You can't simply through Bob Sanders at every run play, or V.Y. will burn you with his arm and a young corp. of speedy WR.

QB Brett Favre: (I can't believe I am suggesting this!) For all those of you that drafted him, here is your chance to save some face. Favre is facing an injured defensive squad, the New York Football Giants. Their defense looks like Swiss Cheese and Duct tape, with holes everywhere and patches where their isn't a big whole. Driver is fairly healthy, Jennings is expected to play, and James Jones looks good. Expect Favre to get picked off like usual, but he is playing like he wants to win and when a guy like Brett demonstrates the ability to make passes while being parallel with the ground, you know his teammates will get pumped up.

QB David Garrard: This "Jeckle and Hide" offense has a great chance to build some confidence as it comes up against Atlanta this week. Although the defense is young, they are fast and hungry. The problem is that there is no offense (Harrington is not the savior). Expect Jags to get out to an early lead and Garrard with his feet, his arm, and his ever-growing ability to manage from the QB position to bring you a solid return.

RB Chris Brown: I don't think last week was a fluke (the zillion rushing yards, yes, but not the ability to break tackles and move the chains). Although he and White will still share touches, Brown is facing the Indy defense and has a great opportunity to build on last week's performance, gaining more confidence from coaches and players. He is more elusive than White and will therefore be able to avoid the crushing blows of the Indy secondary.

RB Deuce McCallister: I have him on many teams...why? Because he puts up 1100 YDs and 7 - 10TDs with or without R.Bush. The Saints have a chance to redeem themselves as they face a flailing defense (TB). Expect Sean Payton to use McCallister more on the north/south running, saving R.Bush to come in on 3rd downs as well as swing out and line-up in the slot. Deuce is due.

RB Brandon Jackson: He is the real deal, he just needs time to develop. This, however, shouldn't stop you from starting him this week. He is facing the NY "Swiss Cheese" Giants. He had a few breakout runs that were stopped by a great PHI secondary. The same cannot be said for the NYG. Expect Jackson to get atleast one TD, possibly close 100 yds. Morency will not see the ball as much as people want him to...sorry.

RB Adrian Peterson: Not the CHI guy, but the MIN guy. He had a great day against an Atlanta D that was playing from behind the whole game. That shouldn't change as they face the Detroit Lions this week. He is a fantasy stud in the making....not playing him would be a crime this week. Expect 100 yds and a TD on the ground, 35-50 yds receiving and possible even a TD in this category. Expect big things from A.P.

WR T.J. "Who's yer Mamma": I have been type his name so long, I am not sure I can even spell it correctly. The whole CIN offense should see monster numbers against an aging, ailing, and basically NFl version of the Bad News "Browns"; The CLE defense. This team should be excellent under Romeo (Old D/Coord. for the PATS) but has been a big blemish on the CLE fans for what seems like a generation. T.J. will have better statistics than Ocho Cinco this week because Cleveland can't do much gainst the running of R.Johnson as well as the double coverage needed for C.Johnson allows T.J. to put up 150 yds and 2 TDs (Let's see how close my prediction is).

WR Marques Colston: All the guru's are predicting a fantasy letdown by Colston due to the study of film, sophomore slumps, and the increased load expected for Devery Henderson and David Patten. I just don't buy it. If you expect him to be more than a top "second tier" WR, yes, you will be let down, but 1K YDs and 7-10 TDs is not unreasonable... Expect him to get damn near 100 YDs and a few looks in the end-zone against an insufferable secondary (TB).

WR Deion Branch: Where did he go last week. I know he is a small guy, but I am sure that he was dwarfed by the ball boys last week. This can't be a constent pattern as Deion Branch has made a career out of "coming out of nowhere" and putting up points. Arizona doesn't have the depth to double-team him like he was last week. Expect him to see at least one TD when the game is done, how many yards depends on how well the 'Zona defense does up front to rattle Alexander and Hasselback (both on the decline, in my opinion).

WR Brandon Marshall: Here he is...in my list again. For those nay-sayers, think about this. He was playing with a knee and a half, and three quarters of one leg and still managed 52 YDs and a TD. Don't look for Stokley or Rod Smith to take away touches from here forward. If you didn't draft him, get him...if you have a "name" on your WR corp. but not really bought into him, trade for him... there are too many GMs that are in love with player "names" and not statistical production.

WR Jason Avant: I know everyone wants Kevin Curtis to be "that guy", however, if you watched the PHI game last week at all, you realize that he is a slot receiver at best. You know, The guy who goes in the middle, gets his head knocked off but holds onto the ball for a key first down. (See Wes Welker). Watch him this week. Iif he puts up anything significant, fantasy-wise, it's time to add him to your waiver wire claims.

TE Dallas Clark: He is the slot receiver, not Anthony Gonzalez. Yeah, Gonzalez is the future (great for keeper leagues) but Clark has shown such versatility that he will be the 2nd best TE in the league by years end. I didn't see it coming, but now that I have...I am calling it. He will see 8 - 10 receiving looks a game, at least two to three of them at the goal line. This total may increase as he is being worked into the screen pass (The Patriots Patent) more and more. He will probably see a rushing attempt at least once every other game (the "reverse").

TE Eric Johnson: I don't think that last week was a fluke for Eric either. I believe that as more and more teams figure out Sean Paytons' mind, Eric will grow more and more into a fantasy-worthy tight end... He is a great back-up TE and potentially a great starter as the season progresses.

TE Ben Watson: This is his week. I know the quality of the SD defense. Consider the quality and depth of weapons on the NE offense. (They did lose their biggest weapon...the CAMERAMAN!!!!) They can double Moss and mostly use "one on one" coverage for Stallworth & Welker. But can't account totally for Ben Watson if you do that...not with the RBs keeping the front seven at bay. The RB corp. is the key to NE's success, but only to keep the D from dropping back too much, which will, in my opinion, give Watson the best chance to get the most stats this week from the NE offense.

There are a ton more, but time is limited today. Have a hectic schedule to attend to. Hope this helps with your line-up decisions.


Statistocrat

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