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Thursday, September 20, 2007

Fantasy Football ~ Week 3: "Start'em"

Here we go again, sports fans! For all of you that have been reading my blogs, you can agree that with the exception of a player a week (Week 1 ~ Randy Moss; Week 2 ~ Jerricho Cotchery), I have been fairly accurate when it comes to Start'em and Sit'em. Does that mean I am an expert, NO! But it does mean that at this point, hopefully, some validity can be placed on my opinions.

Today, I will venture into what I believe are the best Start'ems available. (Sub-note, I only talk about those that are typically "bench and bye-week" players, realizing you are all intelligent enough to know who your basic starting lineup should be).



QUARTERBACKS:


Jason Campbell: Here is Jason's first chance at big, BIG numbers. Too all those who pledge allegiance to Giants Nation, I am sorry that I am bashing your defense so much, but you can't disguise injuries in your starting line-up in the NFL. Randel El and Moss, Portis and Betts, and Chris Cooley, make for fantastic options as the 'Skins play host to the New York Football Giants. I anticipate Jason put up over 250 yds and 3 TDs, with one being a swing pass to the RB or a quick slant to Cooley early. Randel El will have a bigger day than Moss as they can't double team both due to Cooley's talent.


Josh McCown: I was right about Brett Favre getting the start last week and I believe (as long as he is healthy) that Josh is a great start this week. Cleveland is by far a great defense nor have they shown any signs that they are even "good" defense. With the speed of Curry & Porter and what appears to be a rejuvenated RB in LaMont Jordan (trying to make a name of himself while D. Rhodes serves his suspension), this looks very, very promising for all those GMs that picked him up early to replace your drafted backup QB.


Kyle Boller: I know, I am picking all the "big names", huh? If there was a chance for Boller to shine, it's Week 3. Arizona has shown that they are susceptible to just about anything on any given Sunday. If Kyle plays his cards right, this could be the week that the Cardinals show their defensive weakness in passing. Clayton looks 85-90% healthy and Heap is doing his typical thing out of the TE position. McGahee has shown that he can work within a north/south offense (sort of). If you have Tony Romo, J.P. Losman, this may be a good option as they face some tough Ds.

Jeff Garcia: He is proving his value, fantasy-wise, week by week. He has knack for keeping the chains moving, hitting receivers, and gaining the benefit from YAC statistics. He is up against the poor secondary of STL and should see a lot of opportunity. Expect 200 yds and at least 1 or 2 TDs. I anticipate that this will be one of his better fantasy weeks as the match-up suits his style of play.

RUNNINGBACKS:

Cedric Benson: Typically, I feel this guy is over-rated. He is doing better than he has in the past (43 attempts for 143 yds, 3.3 per carryso far). These aren't spectacular numbers by any stretch, but facing a defense that has struggled to stop the run (Dallas) allows me to give him the nod this week to start. For those who drafted him as your top RB, this is a no brainer, but in some leagues, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, and Benson have been Top 15 at best. Look for 100 yds and a TD from Cedric this week.

DeShaun Foster: I always have high hopes for DeShaun but his injury-plagued career has prevented me from drafting him. He faces an Atlanta defense that has struggled to define them. They have a great, young backfield and some pretty quick guys up front, but the line-backing corp. has let them down in recent history. Foster could see some productive numbers, especially through the air. I anticipate 80-85 yds on the ground with anywhere from 30-45 yds in the air. He should see the end zone at least once this coming Sunday.

Adrian Peterson (MIN): With Chester Taylor nursing a litany of injuries, here is yet another chance for the youngster to prove his worth. 100(run) & 50(receive) yds isn't entirely impossible against a KC defense that will most likely be playing from behind most of the game. With the instability of the QB (Tavaris Jackson), I anticipate that Adrian could see the end zone two times, one in the air, one on the ground. This could be another big fantasy week like he had on week one. [He was my first overall pick in my 3-player keeper league.)

Cadillac Williams: With the Garcia/Galloway connection developing and Cadillac apparently with his knees healthy, this could be a turning point for the young stud RB. Many a fantasy GMs, I believe, will feel rewarded for "taking the chance" on him. The hardest part was dismissing his 2006 performance (Hard, I know, but that is why I got him in the 4th/5th round in soooo many leagues this year). Jeff gives stability to an offense that has been anything but since their SB win the first year of "Chuckies" tenure in TB. STL better put up some serious points if they expect to walk away with a win. Williams easily rings up 100+ yds and a TD. He is also developing quite a knack for getting open for the screen and making serious headway towards the end zone.

Derrick Ward: Ahhh, Ward. I won't say it is easy to run against a revived WAS defense, I am simply saying that he will get the opportunity, what he does with it depends on how well Coughlin's his offensive attack. He may not touch 100 yds, but he will certainly rack up at least 50 receiving and have more than one shot at an end zone touchdown.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Vincent Jackson: He proved he could catch... He proved he could play... Can L.T. show up enough that Rivers can take more than 3 shots at this big, up-and-comer in the SD offense? GB is not a place you want to be if you are proto-typical running back; But L.T. is anything but that. I realize that Chicago and New England kept him in check. Did you expect anything less from arguably the number 1 and number 3 defense (Baltimore, 2nd)? Gates, L.T. AND V/Jax will get their chance to shine this week and redeem an abysmal start. I don't expect 100 yds, although it is possible, but I expect him to make some big plays, even a touchdown could be in his future. 80-90 yds is a reasonable expectation, a touchdown would be icing on the cake.

Jacoby Jones: Andre Johnson is hurt (NO!!! Really? He has never had an injury problem...NOT!) I stopped drafting A.J. because I could trade for him the day he got hurt... it may be the case, yet again. Jacoby will run alongside Kevin Walters and he should thank A.J. for the opportunity. Kevin Walters should be angry, because Jones has a chance to outshine him in a big way, even securing the number two slot right from under Walters nose. Schaub likes the kid, his speed, his willingness to go and get the ball. With Walters not scaring anyone, Jacoby will not have a huge game, but could be enough that he helps you to a "W".

Roydell Williams: It's official! We have found Vince Young's favorite receiver. If Roydell can stay on the field (injury-prone), he could be the biggest fantasy pick-up of the year. I have done exactly that in many, many of my leagues. He should flashes last year and should make a lot of Brandon Jones drafters upset if they don't jump on this kid fast. I anticipate many 0' 100 yd games with a TD in this kids future. Don't blink, he will be gone from the free agent pool soon enough. Go get'em, start'em, and look like a fantasy guru in the process.

Kevin Curtis: I realize Reggie Brown is the "go to guy", however, when it counted, Mc"Shame" threw it to Kevin each time. Jason Avant is another up-and-comer for the Eagles, but with Donavan still nursing that knee, he is less mobile and very inaccurate (wide open shot to Curtis and simply overthrew him.) If anyone is going to get a chance to catch the "ducks" that McNabb is throwing, Curtis seems to be the best bet (if you don't count Westbrook in the equation).

TIGHT ENDS:

Owen Daniels: Another receiver who has a chance to benefit (more, I believe) from the absence of A.J. Owen is the 2nd leading reciever on the team and just become a "can't-miss" start for now and the near future (who knows how long A.J. will milk THIS injury). They are up against a underrated IND defense (Bob Sanders is a "M-animal"!!!). Look for 65+ yds and a TD from this undervalued TE.

Chris Baker: Kellen Clemens will need that fail-safe check down... Chris is ready for that call. With Thomas Jones still chalked on the flightline and most defenses focused on the tandem of Coles and Cotchery, Baker is the heir apparent to a great many touches to come. I know the Miami front seven is tough...but that doesn't meant they are fast. If Eric is the "Man-genius" (I call him a crybaby snitch), they he takes advantage of this and really works Baker into the mix, early and often.

Due to the nature of fantasy football and the most common practice of grab a D/ST and Kicker in the last four picks, it really isn't worth going into details on these two positions. If you want my personal opinion, simply email me (click my name below).

Good Luck with your rosters, I hope that my outlook helps you to make those tough decisions of starters over backups and why you chose to do it.

STATISTOCRAT

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Been a lurker for a few weeks but I am breaking my silence :)

You really think Washington will put up a ton of points on the Giants? Not trying to be snarky, just asking :)

I don't see Campbell doing that well, even against a injured Giants D. 250 yards maybe but not three TD's.

I would also advise playing all your Cowboys and Bears. Dallas has really brought the offense in the last couple of seasons when they play on the national stage. This will be a shootout.

Yes, Mangini is a tattletale. Of course it was ok for the Dolphins and Mike Shanahan to cheat as long as it didn't involve video. I guess audiotape of audibles and spies on a hill overlooking an opponent's practice are ok. hehe

If we have to acknowledge Barry Bonds' achievements then we also need to turn our heads at cheating in the NFL.

Bill is a villain but Barry is a God. What a crazy world we live in.

Maverick punchin' out...

Kevin Burgoyne said...

Chris, thanks for the comment...

Yes, I really do think WAS will put up points on NYG... they will have to do it in the air, but I think that Campbell has gained enough confidence in the WR & TE corp.

The 3 TDs thing is a hope...but it isn't entirely impossible... look what DAL did to NYG.

As for the Cowboys/Bears... I think this is going to be a tough game... CHI defense against a potent offense, and a poor offense in CHI against a better than average DEF in DAL... I don't know about shootout, but it will be a great game. (CHI held LT to what, 23 yds?)

I agree on the Barry Bonds / Bill Belicheck statement....

It is a crazy world!!!